>> However, the sampling in this round does seem to always except with Rassmussen be using 2008 as representative for their samplings per party.
Rasmussen is not calling cellphones - that’s why his poll is cr@p. He skips about 25-30% percent of the households, and those which he misses have a definite Dem tilt (younger, more urban etc...)
I will be surprised if the exit polls this year match Dem +8 result from 2008, but D +5 electorate is quite possible this time.
2014 is another matter, the midterm electorate is always much smaller and older than in presidential years. But 2014 is still far away.
Of course now we discover per the link in post 49 that you’re on FR and this thread doing just what this article is all about.
No, what calling cell phones does is massively tilt the sample to young voters. That demographic is massively pro Obama. So when you add cell phones you increase the Obama biase 5-7 point out of sync with actual voting blocks
Hi John
I would not waste your time. This is a emotion driven, not rational, poster. Anyone who says the below is so out of touch with political reality as to be disillusional
Era of Voting for RINOs is Declared Over
Thursday, January 26, 2012 5:33:48 PM · 107 of 200
ubaldus to CharlotteVRWC
America survived 3 years of Obama, and will survive another 5 just fine. Obama is a lousy manager and a mediocre politician, with GOP in control of the House nothing will pass anyway, and in 2014 the usual midterm electorate will increase the GOP majority, even if the economy grows (and it probably will grow at 3%, 3.5% at best). In any case, Romney will not do anything materially different from Obama, and since the real fiscal crisis is about 10-12 years away, the deadlock is the best we should expect in the next presidential cycle or two.
I see no point in voting for Romney, given the choices the second term for Obama may be preferable, and perhaps in 2016 we can have some decent candidates.
Rassmussen argues that cell phones over weigh to idealistic youth and that you can't tell if you are getting that voting household as easily as if you call the home and that folks are not yet used to solicitions on cell phones like they are on their home phones so he considers them less reliable
but really that is all sort of an unknown science just yet about cell phones so you could be correct or not...it's hard to say
polls samplings being what they are I think Dems cannot turnout anymore than 2-3 points more than GOP for GOP to win with their own bloc and Independents..in today's electorate
the vote that matters is the white vote...I am ignorant of poll samplings based on race to be honest
but the consensus seems to be that 58-61% of whites need to vote for GOP if they turnout in normal numbers..i think it was 55% in 2008 and 62% in 2010
in 1980 we only needed 51-53% of white vote to win
the order is much taller...and will become unattainable at some point though in my home state where they are surrounded by the evidence of our future (and our worst past ironically), whites vote 88-90% GOP
The guy who nailed it in 2008 is "crap". Riiiight. IBTZ.