America’s Last Politically Contested Territory: The Suburbs

The Daily Beast ^ | Sep 21, 2012 | Joel Kotkin

[neverdem]

Within the handful of swing states, the presidential election will come down to a handful of swing counties: namely the suburban voters who reside in about the last contested places in American politics.

Even in solid-red states, big cities tilt overwhelmingly toward President Obama and the Democrats, and even in solid-blue ones, the countryside tends to be solidly Republican.

What remains contested are the suburbs, which—despite the breathless talk in recent years of an urban revival—have accounted for 90 percent of metropolitan growth over the past decade.

But as the suburbs have grown—in large part by collecting families priced out of cities or seeking more space or better schools—they’ve shifted from reliably Republican territory to contested turf. Barack Obama won 50 percent of the suburban vote in 2008, a better performance than either Bill Clinton or John Kerry.

Obama’s success resulted from demographic changes sweeping the periphery of most major cities. Long derided by blue-state intellectuals as stultifying breeders of homogeneous white bread, the suburbs increasingly reflect and shape the country’s ethnic diversification. The majority of foreign-born Americans now live in suburbs, and many suburban towns—like Plano, Texas, outside Dallas; Cerritos, south of Los Angeles; and Bellevue, near Seattle—have become more ethnically diverse than their corresponding core cities. Among the metropolitan...

--snip--

On balance, this all works to the president’s favor. If Obama can manage anything close to a split in suburbia, as he did in 2008, he will surely win a second term. Such a loss, at a time of economic hardship, may be enough to force even the dullards of the GOP back to the drawing board to confront their inability to win over enough of the suburban voters (homeowners, small businesspeople, parents of any races)—who should provide the GOP an electoral majority, but so far are not.

[neverdem]

The author ignores the fact that the cost of motor vehicle fuel which has doubled since Obama took office. Just about every adult needs their own vehicle unles they're in an assisted living facility or nursing home. It's quite hard to live in suburbs without public transportation or your own.

[woweeitsme]

He isn’t getting a split in “suburbia” this year. Ain’t happening.

[gunnyg]

“It’s quite hard to live”
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Ah so, good point...now i get it!
;)
Semper Watching!
*****

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

Also covered thoroughly in, “Spreading the Wealth” by Stanley Kurtz.

[familyop]

Suburban populations are getting poorer. Before long, they’ll probably become much more rapidly poorer. The gigantic and growing pile of debt supporting most suburbanites’ jobs and other government incomes will become more fragile and likely collapse rather roughly at some points in time.

[Fraxinus]

Not scientific by any stretch of the imagination, but my observation of the DC suburbs shows fewer Obama signs and bumper stickers this year than there were Kerry signs and bumper stickers in 2004.