Posted on 09/21/2012 6:46:28 PM PDT by AmonAmarth
According to a poll released by CBS and the New York Times, Obama leads Romney 49 - 46 percent, but Newsbusters reported Monday the poll used a sample rate of 13 percent more Democrats than Republicans.
"Clearly, they didn't like what a properly weighted result would have told them, which is that Mitt Romney is in a deadlock with Barack Obama if one uses Gallup's party affiliation numbers from before [the] Democratic National Convention, or that he's up by five points if one opts for Rasmussen's affiliation numbers. In their latest poll, with registered voters, CBS/NYT not only oversampled Democrats, but they took the number of actual responses and further weighted them towards Dems," Tom Blumer wrote.
Initially, the poll used a sample rate of 25.4 percent Republican to 34.7 percent Democrat, but Blumer noted that "an 8-point margin among people they actually spoke with wasn't enough."
So they weighted it even further to favor Democrats.
A post at Breitbart.com says that "[w]ith a balanced partisan sample, Romney would likely post consistent leads against Obama."
The goal of the so-called "mainstream media" is to suppress GOP voters by cooking the polls.
"This election, it isn't so much about polling as propaganda. The polls are simply a tool being used by the media to try to depress GOP turnout and give a powerful lift to Obama's obviously lackluster campaign," Mike Flynn wrote.
This isn't the first time that skewed polling has been used to prop up the Obama campaign.
On September 11, we reported that questions were raised by a skewed CNN poll that showed Obama 6 points ahead of Romney. To achieve their goal, CNN used a sample that included 50 percent Democrats, 45 percent Republicans and 5 percent Independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
They took the bias out and Romney in a landslide.
Romney is kicking some serious patoot!
We have to make sure every conservative knows about this and doesn’t get discouraged. It’s going to require a real get-out-the-vote efforts, but if we don’t fall for these garbage polls, we’ll win comfortably.
for later
I just adjusted this poll’s results using some off the cuff calcs. I get a 52%-43% lead for Romney. Now I’m going to see how close I am to the results on the website you posted.
>> We have to make sure every conservative knows about this and doesn’t get discouraged.
No doubt some are a little disheartened, somewhere.
However, none of the conservatives I know personally are the least bit discouraged.
But boy, are they PISSED. And getting more so day after day.
Awesome. Post them here when you can.
We are silent, but we are PRIMED and can't wait to get to the polls Nov 6th. There is nothing that will stop this stampede of conservative voters.
My emails are crammed every day with Anti Obama stuff, I just delete it now, same old/same old every day. WE knew all this in 2008, so who am I going to forward this stuff to, I don't run with those types.
Didn’t see them up on that site yet, nothing for CBS/NYT ending on the Sep 21 yet.
At what point will the Times be forced to poll 100% Democrats to get the numbers they want?
They are on that list, 6th one down
Ah, so they are, I thought for a moment that this was reporting a new poll released today.
Looks like I got pretty close, they have 51-44 for Romney.
Nice, I think we can reach a consensus then, Romney should win if there is an election......
The poll is from Sept, 14th.
Here it is with internals
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/09/15/us/politics/New-York-Times-CBS-Poll-Results.html
It’s good to debunk the pollaganda, but ...
Dont assume Romney is ahead by much or by anything, anymore than you should trust the Romney is toast claims.
These polls may be skewed but it is screwy to try to ‘unskew’ them that way. You can’t simply infer the result of an unbiased result by playing with a biased poll.
Ras and Gallup are showing a close race.
That’s reality. It’s within the margin of error and margin of campaign ups and downs.
I agree with you, but lets look at this interesting tidbit from the Examiner:
“Many of the polls are skewed. They are skewed by over-sampling Democrats and unskewing the data from the polls arrives at more accurate numbers. But for many, an easy to understand story used as a metaphor would more clearly illustrate the concept.
The story takes place on a university campus enrolling 10,000 undergraduate students among three colleges. It will be simply called The University. The University formerly was a business college that added the other two colleges years ago and became a University. But it remains strong and 3760 students are enrolled in the College of Business as business majors. The University sought to prepare future teachers in a new way and has grown its College of Education to enroll 3330 undergraduate education majors. The remainder of the students major in a variety of academic areas, including philosophy, political science, English, sociology and many others that make up the 2910 students enrolled in the College of Arts and Sciences.
The students have an extremely active Student Government Association (SGA) on campus, the student take it very seriously and politics on campus is quite intense. Also, the Business and Education students very strongly identify with their college and represent them as if they are political parties in their participation in the SGA. Every year the SGA Presidency is won by a student in either business or education. It has evolved to becoming a two party system unofficially.
The incumbent SGA president is a very divisive, politically liberal, junior education major. He is opposed by a fellow junior from the business school who is moderately conservative. As the students on this campus are quite politically active, they have been conducting a number of polls for the race for SGA president among the University’s 10,000 students who will decide the election.
A group of students in elementary education put out a poll showing the incumbent leading by six percent. They surveyed 50 students and the poll’s sample included 24 education majors out of 50 and 22 of those 24 supported the incumbent.
A few math education students put out their own poll, showing the incumbent leading by 8 and they surveyed 62 students including 28 education majors.
A group of special education students did a poll of 58 students, that included 31 educations major, that showed the incumbent leading by 10 percent.
The campus newspaper cites these polls every day to report how the current, but controversial, SGA president has a wide lead in the polls. Even some members of the College Republicans write columns in the campus paper speculating on how and why their business college candidate is losing the election.
But the challenging candidate for SGA president cites a poll that disagrees with the others. A statistics major in the College of Arts and Sciences comes up with the notion that a sample that accurately reflects the student population will yield more accurate results. So he surveys 100 students, and among them 38 business majors, 33 education majors and 29 students from the College of Arts and Sciences. His poll shows the race tied at 47 percent for each candidate.
A few liberals political science students from the College of Arts and Sciences conduct their own poll, they too survey education majors disproportionately in their sample and come out with similar results as most of the polls.
Many education majors and supporters of the current SGA president say that poll is biased towards the interests of the business majors, and the conductor of that poll is biased himself.
A political science major who is known to be conservative points out most of the polls are skewed because they included far more than 33.3 percent education majors in their polls, and for that reason, get results “skewed” in favor of the education major who is the incumbent president. This conservative political science major points out if the samples are weighted to accurately reflect the student ratio between the enrollment in the the three colleges, the polls would report more accurate results. So by applying this weighting, the polls are “unskewed” and they all show the business major challenging the SGA president to be in the lead 56 percent to 44 percent. They call him crazy and he says the real poll on election day will prove him right.
Despite that, most still believe the polls are accurate and the incumbent SGA president is going to win. The official campaign newspaper endorses him before the election and at the same predicts the incumbent will win. Most students think the campus newspaper is biased and “in the tank” for the current SGA president.
Election day comes and the students finally decide the contest. Surprising most, the business major challenging the SGA president gets 3242 votes or 54 percent, while the incumbent loses the race with 2688 votes or 45 percent while a lesser known third candidate gets 65 votes for one percent.
Now the campus newspaper is running stories about how most of the polls got it so wrong in predicting the opposite of what happened in the race for SGA president.
The conservative political science major was right, the polls were skewed and that is why they were wrong. His “unskewed data” was right and predicted the result of the election. End of story.
Skewing of the polls has been more common in major polls this season than those few polls that have not been skewed. Last week the latest CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
So many of these skewed polls have been unskewed here in this column they are now averaged, in unskewed form, in the new UnskewedPolls.com UnSkewed Average of Polls that today shows Romney leading by 7.8 percent.”
Hope so, i just hope that we’re not moving too far in the other direction in our readjustments and fooling ourselves.
It is a little troublesome for the non-MSM, reputable polling houses to have it as close as they do...
All this is designed to dishearten the right and suppress the vote.
I am determined but ‘worried’.
Arguing against polls is what losing campaigns do.
Arguing against Obama’s latest lies is what winning campaigns do.
Keep fighting the good fight!
I’ve said this point many times - my apologies - but I really think they have to oversample dems in order to get a more accurate representation of what the final tally will look like that takes into account illegal and dead voters and dem dirty tricks
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