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What's with these polls? Romney 51.8 Obama 44 R52-O45 R54-O44 R51-O44 R50-O45
Tea Party Tribune ^ | 2012-09-22 11:30:49 | Gil Guignat

Posted on 09/22/2012 11:42:20 AM PDT by GilGil

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If we are fighting a Tokyo Rose like media then it must mean someone wants to conquer us. Chilling!
1 posted on 09/22/2012 11:42:24 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Yahoo News is Tokyo Rose x 100. They are daily pimping for Obama.


2 posted on 09/22/2012 11:46:32 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: GilGil
The way I see it, the polls are reflecting what the left will end up with after all of the fraud that will occur.

If Rasmussen is as accurate as usual, it won't take a lot of fraudulent votes to secure the win for Obama.

3 posted on 09/22/2012 11:47:02 AM PDT by Pox (Good Night. I expect more respect tomorrow.)
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To: GilGil

Yahoo News is Tokyo Rose x 100. They are daily pimping for Obama.


4 posted on 09/22/2012 11:47:24 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: GilGil

Yahoo News is Tokyo Rose x 100. They are daily pimping for Obama.


5 posted on 09/22/2012 11:47:42 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: GilGil

Sometimes I feel that I live in two countries, or living amongst aliens from outerspace and their enablers, who want to do everything possible to undermine our country and control our lives.

Correct me if I’m wrong:

Liberals ....

- despise our democratic system of government
- despise our constitution
- despise our religions
- despise our flag
- despise our independence
- despise our ability to get ahead
- despise our defense and defense of our country
- despise our friends and allies
- despise our way of life

I wish we could ethnically this country of these aliens!


6 posted on 09/22/2012 11:51:33 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: LibFreeUSA

TYPO

“I wish we could ethnically CLEANSE this country of these aliens!


7 posted on 09/22/2012 11:53:46 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: GilGil

Are there any stats regarding which polling firms were most accurate..and which were least...in 2008 or 2010?


8 posted on 09/22/2012 12:01:31 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (If Obama's Reelected Imagine The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: Gay State Conservative

#1 was Rassmussen and I think Pew was #2


9 posted on 09/22/2012 12:02:20 PM PDT by scbison
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To: GilGil

IIRC, Tokyo Rose had a gun to her head. The MSM are willing collaborators.


10 posted on 09/22/2012 12:02:41 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: GilGil
TRM = Tokyo Rose Media. I like it...it should replace 'MSM', because there is NOTHING mainstream about the communist-enabling media. Nothing. TRM...learn it, live it, love it.
11 posted on 09/22/2012 12:04:55 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: scbison

Interestingly, not even Raz saw the level of discontent in 1994. No one saw that coming.


12 posted on 09/22/2012 12:05:42 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: who knows what evil?

Very well said. TRM it is!


13 posted on 09/22/2012 12:06:29 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: All

A bit of a lesson in polling.

The talk you hear of oversampling Ds or Rs or Is to some extent doesn’t mean anything, and to another extent means everything. There are three flavors of turnout model.

1) The turnout mix of the last presidential election.

2) A new measurement of party affiliation done periodically and recently.

3) A semi random sample (non random only to the extent of being sure 80 of 100 telephone prefixes are not the same and providing a corrupted, accidentally non random mix) is taken. The respondents self identify party and that is what is reported.

The vast, vast majority of the polls showing big Obama leads are using (forcing) a partisan mix that fits 2008, which was 6 weeks after Lehman and very likely an aberration. If you used 2010’s partisan mix, you’d see a huge Romney lead.

As best I know, Gallup uses flavor 3. Totally random, respondents self identify and the sample’s partisan mix is reported as what the random measure got.

Not sure, someone will correct, but I think Rasmussen does a recent partisan mix measure of the population.

Regardless, no matter who you are as a pollster, no matter how honest and pure your measurement, if you use 2008’s turnout as the turnout model for your poll, you’re going to show an Obama lead.


14 posted on 09/22/2012 12:08:00 PM PDT by Owen
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To: GilGil

It’s time to create the annual “Baghdad Bob Award” (aka the Bobby Award) for the polling firm with the absolute worst Day-Before-Election-Day Poll.


15 posted on 09/22/2012 12:10:57 PM PDT by immadashell
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To: Owen

Your point about 2008 and Lehman is excellent. We are in Lehman x10 in 2012. Europe is going into depression. Bernanke sayig QE to infinity means the private sector is collapsing. American ambassador of Libya assassinated on anniversary of 9-11, Fast and furious, declining energy, 60 million on food stamps, real unemployment close to 12%, declining manaufacturing, skyrocketing health care costs etc. The point is that this is happening now and affecting everyone. to assume that people are not aware of this is absurd. The polling is delusional.


16 posted on 09/22/2012 12:14:03 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

MSM is pimping for Obama. They can dream all they want. Obama is down in every category this time. How is he getting more votes? The youth now see the light with crushing school loans and burger flipper jobs. The Jewish vote will be less. A lot of blacks will stay home because of the same sex marriage debacle. There are still a LOT of very stupid people who will cancel my vote. Remember Aug 1st and the lines at Chick-fil-a. That enthusiasm will drive the Republicans to victory.


17 posted on 09/22/2012 12:14:59 PM PDT by Plumres
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To: GilGil

It’s because here in Soviet America, we love dead raped ambassadors, we like gay presidents, we like being made to look like fools to our enemies, we like tossing our freedoms hard fought for by better men then us down the crapper, hell, we like getting our asses kicked so much that we kick our own asses.


18 posted on 09/22/2012 12:17:26 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: Plumres

In 1994 the democrats were thrown out of the house for the first time in 40 years because of Hillary’s Hillarycare. The same will happen in 2012. Basically the opposition to Obamacare is 60-40 and this will be the same margin by which Romney will win.


19 posted on 09/22/2012 12:19:21 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Plumres

In 1994 the democrats were thrown out of the House for the first time in 40 years because of Hillary’s Hillarycare. The same will happen in 2012. Basically the opposition to Obamacare is 60-40 and this will be the same margin by which Romney will win.


20 posted on 09/22/2012 12:19:37 PM PDT by GilGil
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