Posted on 09/23/2012 6:36:06 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
His overall approval rating is at 48%. Typically the most accurate measure of your final vote tally (as per Rasmussen) is your approval rating as the election draws closer.
So, watch this number carefully!!
I wonder where the doom and gloom crowd is today
:)
Meanwhile AP is reporting that Romney has killed his chances and is behind in the polls, lol. People are in for a big surprise. Riots could occur.
Rasmussen still has Obama losing independents by 12 points as well. I can’t imagine there would be any scenerio that he could win the election while losing I’s by that margin.
Is this poll using a + 1 or + 2 Dems now ??
Rasmussen is polling likely voters, but not even 100% of likely voters vote. What is the usual percentage among Rasmussen's sample. Anyone knows?
I think the most likely number is somewhere between "strongly approve" and "total approve" (or vice versa for disapprove numbers). Am I too positive?
Old Chinese riddle...how can a Zero be a negative?
I believe Ras has been in the +2 D range for awhile. This is the ‘money paragraph for me:
“Obama is supported by 89% of Democrats. Romney gets the vote from 85% of Republicans and holds a 12-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.”
So the candidates are even with Ras +12 with the indies, he also had room to pick up some of the P vote since he lags obama with his base (O at 89% d as opposed to R at 85% R.This still looks like a 53% 47& Romney win (knowing the totals will be down a little as 3rd parties get their 1% of the vote.
I think the tax return release was an early October surprise. Because of early voting, October is too late.
It makes him look good. All that charity, and not claiming all as deduction.
Perhaps i’m giving too much credit, but these capaigns are not run by idiots.
The money line for me is this:
“Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Republican voters are following the race on a daily basis, along with 47% of Democrats. Interest in the race is often a good indicator of turnout.”
"Obama is supported by 89% of Democrats. Romney gets the vote from 85% of Republicans and holds a 12-point advantage among unaffiliated voters."
Is it really possible that 15% of Republicans will vote for Obama while only 11% of Dems will vote for Romney? Given Romney's 12 point advantage with unaffiliated voters this supposed differential is the only reason that this race is tied.
While I trust Rasmussen much more than any other of the pollsters, most of whom are really just carrying Obama's water, I am very suspicious of this aspect of his poll. Time will tell of course. Someone is actually going to win and someone, hopefully Obama, is going to lose.
Thank you
I thought I read that .
Why did he change from +1 GOP !
That 15% Republican isn't voting for Obama...there are other candidates...others may just sit this one out...
But I have been reading all week that Romney is way behind and his campaign is in total disarray! How can he possibly come back and make up this yawning deficit??? /s
They won't vote for Zero directly. They'll do it by proxy by voting for some "true and perfect conservative" 3rd party unknown that hasn't a snowball's chance of doing anything except act as a spoiler...
When you get past his core supporters, WHAT is there to approve of??? It can’t be the economy, it’s not foreign policy.
Can you believe half the American people accept a presidency of “it’s not my fault”?
Since then, they have gone to no polling but ONLY thousands upon thousands of personal phone calls and walks. The overwhelming---but anecdotal---evidence is that the Rs will turn out far beyond 85%, the indies are at least 10% higher for Romney than O. I personally think even this is way low based on (again) anecdotal reports.
More important, the (not anecdotal but real evidence) of early absentee requests is very very substantially favoring REpublicans in key counties (Franklin, for ex, which is Columbus, has a 4000 edge; Hamilton, a 5500 edge, and even Dark, with a 30,000 Dem registration advantage, has a 700 R edge so far!!!)
Romney’s gotta break the logjam.Let’s hope he kicks some donkey in the debates.
Sure, if they think government's job is to hand out free money and they are still hoping to get more of it. I doubt Obama's actual job performance bothers them in the slightest.
If they are ‘sitting this one out’ why are they called likely voters?
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