I keep hearing time and time again about these mysterious "private" or "internal" polls that campaigns rely on, which are supposedly more accurate than any of the published polls. I am willing to believe they may exist, but have yet to see any evidence or credible source describing them. If someone has that knowledge, or a believable link, I would be appreciative to see it.
I keep hearing time and time again about these mysterious "private" or "internal" polls that campaigns rely on, which are supposedly more accurate than any of the published polls. I am willing to believe they may exist, but have yet to see any evidence or credible source describing them. If someone has that knowledge, or a believable link, I would be appreciative to see it.
You should, as a starting point, reference
this thread where GOP pollster John McLaughlin went into some details about the MSM polls being BS.
I've worked campaigns, albiet a while ago, and I have lots of friends still working them. There are always internal polls, and those polls are designed by intent to tell campaigns where they need to send their candidates/surrogates and where to spend their money. They are also, as I know from both experience and knowledge from friends, often quite different from the MSM ones.
The devil here is in the details. Or specifically the internals. Polling is very much an art, not a science, and pollsters take the results they receive and plug them into fairly complex models that encompass things like demographics, partisan/ideological affiliation and expected turnout.
The three most critical items to look at in any MSM poll right now are Partisan identification, where the independents are trending and voter enthusiasm.
The current MSM polls are showing, by and large, an unreasonable partisan advantage to the Dems. 2008 was a D+7 election. Some polls out there are showing D+9 to D+13 advantages (although the trend in the last couple days seems to be contracting on that). So ask yourself, is it reasonable to assume that the Dems are going to have a turnout of 2 to 6 points GREATER than the historic/unprecedented turnout of 2008?
The MSM polls are also showing greater enthusiasm by GOP/Romney supporters (enthusiasm was in the Dems favor in 2008) and Indies generally (there have been a couple polls not showing this) trending to Romney. One by 10 points. So now ask yourself, why are polls showing greater GOP enthusiasm and Indies breaking for Romney also showing him getting his a** kicked?
While I don't have any insider knowledge of current Romney polls, it's well within reason to believe that his campaign has projected turnout models for each state (and nationally) based on better and more realistic assumptions and projections (so NOT a Dem turnout higher than the historic 2008 election).