Inside the ‘poll-er-coaster’

NY Post ^ | 9.23.2012 | Jay Cost

[libh8er]

Have you noticed that the political polls have been all over the map lately? Is President Obama up 8 in Virginia, or just 1? Is Mitt Romney up 6 in North Carolina, or is Obama up 4? How about nationwide? Gallup and Rasmussen show a tie, but Pew shows Obama up 8. And so and so on.

What the heck is going on?

For starters, remember what polls are and what they’re not. They are a snapshot in time — but not a good gauge on voter decision-making. In fact, they’re a terrible way to conceive of the thought process that the average swing voter goes through to make his choice. Who knows? A host of factors — including indecisive voters — has Mitt Romney and President Obama bouncing up and down in the polls. AP Who knows? A host of factors — including indecisive voters — has Mitt Romney and President Obama bouncing up and down in the polls.

Many a voter is truly undecided, and will in fact change his mind before Election Day — but may still tell a pollster, “I’m for Obama!” simply because he enjoyed Bill Clinton’s speech at the Democratic National Convention.

That leads to the second point: It has been only two weeks since the DNC ended, which means Obama is still enjoying a bounce in the polls. And that bounce can be higher or lower, depending on how tightly a pollster screens likely voters (or polls of adults who are deemed likely to vote by the pollster).

Think of it this way. You consider yourself a Democrat but normally don’t vote nor pay much attention to politics. But the convention excited you and made you feel good about politics for the first time in a long time.

[fireman15]

I enjoyed the article. Thank you for posting it! My feeling is that Obama does not have the enthusiasm he needs for a victory.

[garjog]

Real Clear Politics. Doesn’t look good for Rom.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[ShovelThemOut]

“Real Clear Politics. Doesn’t look good for Rom.”

unskewedpolls.com Doesn’t look good for Zero.

[wardaddy]

I agree it's close but on RCPmap they have 10-12 states in leans to that are for sure Romney

ridiculous

this race depends on white voter turnout

much as NeoCons and GOPE hate to believe that

and even if we win...we are nearing our last hurrah

the browning of this nation is also a cliff dive into progressive politics

unless conservative whites start having babies like latino immigrants

not likely with meek Gen Y and Millennium males and strident females i see riding around in their eco car with her driving and chin out looking all earnest with the “wife” as big or bigger than the “husband" while he meekly sits in the passenger seat leaning back to coo the one spawn that she will likely concede

it's all over really in time...just depends on how it gets divided

i fear my descendants will deal with horror the like which has not been seen on these shores since the land bridge first brought hominids

that or the predominate culture lets the newcomers enslave us

just a few short years ago we were shouted down here when we warned about this

just look around you...minorities of almost every stripe vote for leftist redistribution and what they see as an anti-white, anti-Christian conservative or anti-male power system ...it is the apex of minority identity politcs and we are in the crosshairs

the exceptions to this..however noble like Vietnamese etc are simply too few to matter except in isolated electoral vote snapshots

and they are growing much faster than we are

toss into that another ingredient whereby those who contribute are being outflanked by those who do not and it just gets worse

baring a miracle this comes to a bad end..all that joking about blood refreshing the tree of liberty may damn well happen and as one who has seen a bit of civil war overseas folks here better gird

worse our govt forces are far far more ominipotent than anything I ever saw in the third world of my youthful adventures

Romney..lousy as he is..should be killing Obama metaphorically..but he's not because the steady lefty bloc here is just too damned big now due to demographics and just enough whites are already collaborators

(wardaddy pessimistic late night in rural TN..very near where lots of blood was spilled in another ambiguous outcome once)

[1035rep]

RCP had Arizona as a “toss up” until recently, now it “leans Romney”. I suppose if you believe the Kenyan has a chance of taking Arizona then you could worry about their poll.

If they didn’t include so many junk polls to get their average they might be more useful.

[mosesdapoet]

I’d be skeptical on what is posted in Real Clear Politics.He has a talkie on Sunday 8-9 pm WLS am 890 Chicago preceeding the “Great American” lawyer windbag (Bill Cunningham) from Cinci who is apt to pick up whats reported in MSM without checking it out. Example “Obama speaking to 15,000 at a stadium in Wisconsin rally which only seats 5,000.

That website features what the mainlining press is injecting sans the panning their reports deserve, Both these guys have me screaming at their or their guest’s responses.Both seem to be buying what the ComOmedia is selling.

[nathanbedford]

Agreed. Demography is destiny.

However, as one descended from colonial pioneers who took the flintlock off the mantle to fight the French and Indians and participated in every major war since (including the war between the states), I am not willing yet to abandon the fight.

First, we acknowledge the problem as you have done. When we are informed of the problem by people like Pat Buchanan, whom we scorned on these threads, and Mark Steyn we should stop killing the messenger and accept the problem to deal with it.

Right now, dealing with it means fighting the electoral fight and winning this election to prevent tyranny, to preserve the Constitution and what is left of capitalism, and to deny sharia the world.

We must stick Romney's thumb in the dyke.

As and when the floodgates give way then must we take down our flintlocks and fight gallantly in a hopeless cause - but at least we will have been genetically well adapted to fighting gallantly in lost causes.

[Fledermaus]

Yep, it sucks. Did you finally sell the house?

[wardaddy]

no...22 viewers...in 90 days...mostly Kali folks who loathe southern greek revival or federal style

so we stayed...built barn...fenced in...got horses

gonna do it here for now

i detest that goose creek new development ..gonna bring in so much new sprawl

[ofwaihhbtn]

Has it occurred to anyone else that a political strategy that must depend on election fraud for victory also requires plenty of bogus polling results leading up to the election so the fact that the election was fraudulent isn’t too obvious?

[dixiechick2000]

When pollsters resort to over sampling dems in even larger proportions than the turn out in 2008, we have a propaganda problem.

Thank goodness that math doesn’t lie.

http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/

http://unskewedpolls.com/

I’m not just coming to this realization. I’ve been noticing this for some time.

There is no way Obama wins VA when the polls skew +4 dems.

In VA, the Reps have a +3 voter registration advantage.

Though this is by no means their fault given their mission, this year RCP is a joke!

[Bon mots]

Carter had a 4 point lead over Reagan...
Mondale had an 18 point lead over Reagan...
Dukakis had a 17 point lead over Bush I...
Gore had an 18 point lead over Bush II...
Kerry too had an 18 point lead over Bush II...

Now Obozo has a paper thin ‘lead’... Among mostly Democrats surveyed....

It looks like the left-wing media is up to its old tricks again!

I smell a landslide coming, followed by sore-loser, Obozo Riots.

[flaglady47]

“I smell a landslide coming, followed by sore-loser, Obozo Riots.”

Yup.

[libh8er]

WarDaddy, all great points but I think despite the demographic shift we could still win elections handily if we had a mainstream media that reported the truth and reported it objectively. The mainstream media - both news and entertainment, incites hatred, derision and ridicule against conservatives and Republicans and a huge chunk of the voting population forms their opinion based on what they see and hear in the media. If we are to remake this country we will have to start at the source. I mean we need a conservative alternative to the mainstream media. Not a cable news channel, but a conservative news/entertainment mainstream media. Without that every election will boil down to spending billions of dollars for a tiny percentage of voters and that's a losing battle. When the demographics have shifted enough, a few undecideds and independents in the middle wont matter. Fundamentally restructuring the country will require going to the source of the problem.

[Ohioan]

What has been happening to America since World War II ended, must be understood as an attack on the very multi-generational nature of any civilization, nation, tribe, race or family. It is an attack on reality; and those who deny reality & pursue cloud-borne egalitarian wish lists, have at one point or another, managed to undermine virtually every institution. It was not genius on their part, more an inevitable incident to denying the basis for all institutions--the multi-generational quests of all sapient peoples.

Let me suggest one reform that could be sold, if enough intelligent Conservatives were to begin to demand it: The limitation of suffrage for a period of years, to anyone who accepts an unearned payment from the Government. There is an obvious conflict of interest, which people of intelligence have been aware of since at least the writings of De Tocqueville.

Please consider my extended argument Universal Suffrage--Threat To Liberty.

William Flax

[GilGil]

Which is why Romney is up an average of 7.8% according to www.unskewedpolls.com

[Fledermaus]

I was out there a couple of weeks ago...construction, mini-mart, new lights. I can see the future problems. But, if it gets folks after they finish the I-65 expansion to stay off Royal Oaks and Lewisburg Pike...might be beneficial.

How’s business? I’m still looking for work! LOL

So I’m free, let’s do lunch sometime.

[wardaddy]

anytime