Well this poll like Ras ^ Gallup is using a +3 D model the Gallup and Ras Party affiliation surveys are showing a +R affiliation. Ras’s is probably high at +4.3% R the rebalancing is using a +1.23% R model which I believe is the Gallup party affiliation model. The Ras Oct number will be released on Oct. 1.
The 2010 turnout was +1.3 R so the 1.23% R is very realistic.
Using that adjustment here:
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Remarkably all 3 polls from today (Ras, Gallup & Battleground) when rebalanced come out the same, 49.89% Romney, 46.28% Obama, the number of undecideds is ~3.6%. If they split say 2:1 for Romney (a bit low by historical standards) we have Romney leading 51.9% to 47.5%.
Again this corresponds very well with the Economic state by state prediction.
From the CU website:
“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.”
I trust this ‘non political’ analysis far more than the speculation of the pollsters. It really is the economy as Carville said.
I would also note that Romney is leading by double digits among independents in all these polls.
Normally we are regaled in stories in the MSM about the importance of independents, hear ANYTHING About Indies this year?
Nope just crickets.
Think about it folks.
Using the 2010 turnout is ridiculous. There is no repeat of 2010 coming. The turnout will be somewhere between 2008 and 2010. D+3 is probably about right.
But then again, nobody has had this bad of an economy on their record in 30+ years...