Skip to comments.How Mitt Romney is actually defeating Barack Obama in the presidential race
Posted on 09/24/2012 6:57:21 PM PDT by Ron C.
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You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?
Campaigning for Mr. Peanut? Whaaaat? By God man, WHY? Where the gas lines not long enough? Did Iran keep the hostages not long enough? Was inflation not insane enough? LOL
I'm picking a nit, but ending them would be more conservative. Neither are constitutional, and forced participation in a government program isn't conservative. But, your overall point is well made.
Don’t get overconfident. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
Brit also in 2010 up till the last week beofre the midterms was handwringing about the Pubbies chance in retaking the house. He's a pasty white beltway toad like the rest of them. What are his bona fides, being to the right of Juan Williams....I remember him fellating the memory of Peter Jennings when he died..lost all my respect then. Another one like Krauthammer, I ignore, they say one smart thing and then 10 ignorant.
That NASCAR poll was amusing.
Romney is winning. Obama going to places like Oregon shows he’s in trouble.
Remember the 2010 elections?.
The primary objective of these incessant, early skewed polls is to cripple Romney with early voting in key states (starts next week in Ohio), to demoralize conservatives, and hurt GOP fundraising across the ballot, from top to bottom.
Today I am very depressed.
The problem is unskewed polls.com is slightly optimistic in over-relying on GOP.
That said, it is definitely true that the polls are out to lunch. I believe RR has a slight lead or at worst a 2-point deficit (the least likely outcome right now actually....if I were to bet would place them exactly even). The debates and final swing in states will be critical.
While I believe Romney is ahead and will likely stay ahead, we need to be careful with unskewedpolls because their polls are just skewed in a different way. Maybe a way closer to reality, but they’re taking data removed from the raw data and putting it through another calculation.
Newsmax now says Obama is leading in NC and MT, and Romney is slowly falling behind. Romney is running a McPain-style campaign, but uninformed Republican primary voters were self-deceived.
Do you think it could be fear of past racism in the Mormon church that has Romney terrified? Candidates know that it is white supporters of civil rights legislation that are they key, and they fear any hint of “racism.”.
and you would think they would be embarrassed by how wrong their polls are. Gallup had Carter winning at this point. They have no credibility, yet are still getting paid.
“There is nothing more conservative than reforming Medicare & Social Security so it will be around for the young folks. “
How ‘bout eliminating them?
Two possibilities: some ads are national - there may be ads that Obama / Romney are airing nationally. Additionally parts of Pennsylvania are in New York State media markets (Erie gets Buffalo stations for example). I imagine both campaigns have ads up in Boston - not because the people’s republic of Cambridge is going red this year but because you get Boston stations in New Hampshire.
I don't know -- to what extent are there national radio ads? I know Rush Limbaugh has them, not sure about on other shows/networks (I'm guessing Obama isn't advertising on Limbaugh).
If Romney had a chance in California, wouldn't it make sense for his campaign to say so? It would cause a surge of volunteers, donations, etc. Instead, they've focused on all the usual suspects.
Here in Wino country/Californicator land, we subscribe to Infinity/Comcast tv which has the ability to use ads directed to our zipcodes for car dealers, contractors, local restaurants. There have been a ton of Obozo ads an anti Romney ads this past month.
Due to white guilt, Obozo carried our zip codes with a wide margin in 2008.
Why would the rats waste any TV ads in California unless Obozo is in trouble?
“You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?
I have noticed this in California as well. I’ve seen ads not only on TV but have heard them on the radio stations as well. Should be a waste of money to even bother.
Could be he fears a landslide and doesn’t want it to be any more embarrassing than it has to be.”
And I’m seeing Ad’s in Seattle, now thats weird............,in 2008 the rats were off the hook enthusiastic about Obama around here. Now you are really hard presses to find a bumper sticker for Obama.
“We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.”
We have the same question.
We have several younger relatives who are conservative independents or conservative Republicans, who only have cell phones since they got out of college or started working for a living. Basically none of their friends have land line phones.
My wife has seen an interesting shift with widows and divorcees, who are over 60. They have low cost cellphones and a slow speed/cheap DSL if they use the internet. They don’t bundle any phones/computer connections with their basic tv service due to the cost of bundling.
We both know retired couples, who travel a lot, who have gone to the I phones for their phone needs. They cancelled their land line phones shortly after buying an I phone or and Android.
So how are these people taken in for polling accuracy.
Again, why would the DNC waste money advertising the Obozo in Seattle or in the SF Gay/er Bay area?
“How bout eliminating them?”
Good luck with that. Can you name me 2 politicians in statewide offices who got elected with that agenda in last 50 years?
Reality is reality....ignore it at your own peril. Losers in elections can not effect ANY change. Just ask Joe Miller,
Doug Hoffman, Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donell, Ken Buck,
JD Hayworth etc. what laws they have been able to change.
There’s no question that Romney is leading in national polls that accurately forecast the relative turnout of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Obama’s support among white voters has declined dramatically in the last three years.
Very simple. Say a pollster want to do a nationwide overnight presidential poll with a sample of 1000. They phone up enough people to get 1000 responses. After this they tabulate the results and find out how many claimed to be Democrat, Republican, Independent and how many are voting Obama or Romney. If the results show an over sampling of Democrats (very common these days) they do not try and balance the poll by phoning up more Republicans. They issue the poll results as is
BTW Rasmussen says that nationwide there are more people identifying as Republicans than Democrats
Saturday, September 01, 2012
After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.
During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. Thats up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. Its also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.
Good question. The only reasons I can think of are: 1) Maybe the DNC gets some kind of a discounted advertising rate on national ads that run everywhere in America and fill up empty advertising time that hasn’t already been sold, or 2) as someone else mentioned, the Obama campaign knows that Romney has a solid lead and they’re trying to limit the size of Romney’s victory in the national popular vote, to limit how much political capital Romney acquires from his victory. If it isn’t for one of those reasons, then it’s beyond me why they’re advertising in solid blue regions.
Expensive tv ads in NY, Seattle, Gay Frisco area and ?.
Another reason, we don’t want liberals spending our tax money.
They can’t make good money decisions even with their own money.
Of course we have not figured in matching government funds.
VERY true! We must all work like we're behind in the polls!
Funny thing that... the more the media claim the ZERO is up, the more people turn up at Romney campaign headquarters around the country to work!
Just the very large crowds Romney is constantly attracting - on a near daily basis - pretty much tells the story. He isn't falling behind, he is gaining, particularly in the so-called 'battleground' states.
Frankly, I think his election will be quite decisive - not the squeaker that some in the GOP talk of.
I’ve been trying to get him to add CONGRESSIONAL TERM LIMITS to his platform. Haven’t seen it yet but I’ll keep at it.
Normally so am I, and we all should be. However we also know the depth of deception within major media, and their hired pollsters.
Chambers rightly 'un-skews' these polls by simply dropping the excessive over-polling of Dim-crats and 'independents' to rational fairness, and telling the truth that is readily revealed. And, he's not the only one working on this task... he has a lot of help from honest and capable people.
"After the better part of a decade in which various markets, from Intrade to the stock market, became many peoples preferred way to peer into the future, a backlash is clearly under way. Not so long ago, knowing about the existence of Intrade was a mark of being in the vanguard. Today, mocking Intrade, ideally on Twitter, is a sign of sophistication."
THANK YOU for sharing this. I was down in the dumps listening to Joe Trippi mention how the independents are all veering toward Obama and that the registered democrats have increased considerably this year. When Karl Rove didn’t dispute it I began to believe it.
Hume feels that unless Romney better clarifies his positions and corrects some of Obama’s lies, this election will be lost. When asked if Romney can make up for lost time during the debates, he fears it will put tremendous pressure on Romney and he isn’t sure there’s enough time. Not very encouraging to say the least!
That is excellent! Saved for printing.
Yeah. I downloaded it to my system yesterday. We shall see how accurate it is within a bit more then a month.
For the most part, the public pollsters are contractors.
The media contracts for the poll and, as the customer, is entitled to make certain specifications -- what questions to ask and who to ask them of. If they request a Dem +10 sample, they'll get it. Whether to use all adults, registered voters or likely voters...you name it, it's up to the customer.
Until a few weeks before the election...when the pollster reserves the right to adjust the turnout model to something resembling reality. A step which is, of course, designed to protect the pollster's credibility.
At this point, note that Rasmussen does NOT have a media sponsor. Instead, they are subscription based. And, since they don't have a media master to please, their polls are generally more reliable (and the samples more realistic).
Thanks for the alert Ernest.
Very nice graphic VRWCRick!
It's disgusting. And I'm not a "1%'r" by any means but every year I get that report from the SS detailing my lifetime contributions I want to vomit. (I expect BO to have them stop printing that soon.) In my 31 working years, I and my employer have "contributed" roughly $300,000 to this program. I expect to work another 10 years or so, so let's say it winds up at $400K. Even assuming a mundane 3 - 4% interest, compounded over that time I could have CONSERVATIVELY another half-million in my retirement account. The chances I'll get anything approaching that from our government masters? Hah. I've actually run my finances assuming ZERO from SS. Which may very well be what I get.
You have to pay close attention to what outlet they’re on. For instance I’m noticing that Filth is running a TON of ads on national networks like ESPN, Lifetime, Bravo, etc. I’ve not seen a single Romney ad on any of those networks. You may be watching these Filth ads in California....but they’re nation-wide.
Which is all the more repulsive considering that Hume might as well have been wearing a “Romney 2012” button during the primary season.