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How Mitt Romney is actually defeating Barack Obama in the presidential race
examiner.com ^ | 9/24/12 | Dean Chambers

Posted on 09/24/2012 6:57:21 PM PDT by Ron C.

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To: Ron C.; Liz; Cincinna

You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?


51 posted on 09/25/2012 4:54:13 AM PDT by NYer (Without justice, what else is the State but a great band of robbers? - St. Augustine)
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To: huskerjim

Campaigning for Mr. Peanut? Whaaaat? By God man, WHY? Where the gas lines not long enough? Did Iran keep the hostages not long enough? Was inflation not insane enough? LOL


52 posted on 09/25/2012 4:58:38 AM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Someday our schools we will teach the difference between "lose" and "loose")
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To: entropy12
There is nothing more conservative than reforming Medicare & Social Security so it will be around for the young folks.

I'm picking a nit, but ending them would be more conservative. Neither are constitutional, and forced participation in a government program isn't conservative. But, your overall point is well made.

53 posted on 09/25/2012 5:09:12 AM PDT by tnlibertarian (Government's solution to everything: Less freedom.)
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To: Ron C.

Don’t get overconfident. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.


54 posted on 09/25/2012 5:55:40 AM PDT by popdonnelly (The first priority is get Obama out of the White House.)
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To: StarFan
Not only the MSM but lately Brit Hume has chimed in calling it all but over.

Brit also in 2010 up till the last week beofre the midterms was handwringing about the Pubbies chance in retaking the house. He's a pasty white beltway toad like the rest of them. What are his bona fides, being to the right of Juan Williams....I remember him fellating the memory of Peter Jennings when he died..lost all my respect then. Another one like Krauthammer, I ignore, they say one smart thing and then 10 ignorant.

55 posted on 09/25/2012 5:58:20 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: FreedomPoster

That NASCAR poll was amusing.

Romney is winning. Obama going to places like Oregon shows he’s in trouble.

Remember the 2010 elections?.


56 posted on 09/25/2012 6:22:09 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: luvbach1

The primary objective of these incessant, early skewed polls is to cripple Romney with early voting in key states (starts next week in Ohio), to demoralize conservatives, and hurt GOP fundraising across the ballot, from top to bottom.

Today I am very depressed.


57 posted on 09/25/2012 6:28:09 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Ron C.

The problem is unskewed polls.com is slightly optimistic in over-relying on GOP.

That said, it is definitely true that the polls are out to lunch. I believe RR has a slight lead or at worst a 2-point deficit (the least likely outcome right now actually....if I were to bet would place them exactly even). The debates and final swing in states will be critical.


58 posted on 09/25/2012 6:47:37 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Ron C.; driftless2

While I believe Romney is ahead and will likely stay ahead, we need to be careful with unskewedpolls because their polls are just skewed in a different way. Maybe a way closer to reality, but they’re taking data removed from the raw data and putting it through another calculation.


59 posted on 09/25/2012 7:01:01 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: Ron C.

Newsmax now says Obama is leading in NC and MT, and Romney is slowly falling behind. Romney is running a McPain-style campaign, but uninformed Republican primary voters were self-deceived.


60 posted on 09/25/2012 7:01:58 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: AlaskaErik

Do you think it could be fear of past racism in the Mormon church that has Romney terrified? Candidates know that it is white supporters of civil rights legislation that are they key, and they fear any hint of “racism.”.


61 posted on 09/25/2012 7:12:51 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: Hetty_Fauxvert


Those of us who have been relatively successful in life through the fruits of our own labor and initiative. Misery loves company. Envy and jealousy are powerful forces. Liberals display them constantly.


It must be more important to them to try to influence how people vote than to be unbiased journalists. They think they can get away with lying and still keep their jobs. (Sadly, nothing has proven them wrong so far).

and you would think they would be embarrassed by how wrong their polls are. Gallup had Carter winning at this point. They have no credibility, yet are still getting paid.

62 posted on 09/25/2012 7:25:17 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: Ron C.
Dean Chambers, an Internet journalist and commentator, launched his writing career by creating an alternative conservative student newspaper while in college. Dean grew up in what James A. Baker called "the Peoples Republic of Massachusetts" and has experienced first-hand the fruits of progressive public policy. Look to Dean's writings to find a uniquely individualist point of view focusing on limited government, individual liberty, and conservative values.Here's what I don't see: any background in polling, statistics, demography or mathematics. Sorry, but I'm skeptical of blogger self-proclaimed experts.
63 posted on 09/25/2012 7:25:57 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Ron C.

for later


64 posted on 09/25/2012 7:26:20 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: entropy12

“There is nothing more conservative than reforming Medicare & Social Security so it will be around for the young folks. “

How ‘bout eliminating them?


65 posted on 09/25/2012 7:26:24 AM PDT by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: NYer; Sarah Barracuda


You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?


I have noticed this in California as well. I've seen ads not only on TV but have heard them on the radio stations as well. Should be a waste of money to even bother.

Could be he fears a landslide and doesn't want it to be any more embarrassing than it has to be.
66 posted on 09/25/2012 7:36:50 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: tnlibertarian


I'm picking a nit, but ending them would be more conservative. Neither are constitutional, and forced participation in a government program isn't conservative. But, your overall point is well made.


Thank you. Those are socialist programs, especially Socialized Security. The high income earners pay in substantially more percentagewise and will now never get that back. The lower income earners will get all their money back and quite a bit more.
67 posted on 09/25/2012 7:39:50 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: yorkiemom; NYer

Two possibilities: some ads are national - there may be ads that Obama / Romney are airing nationally. Additionally parts of Pennsylvania are in New York State media markets (Erie gets Buffalo stations for example). I imagine both campaigns have ads up in Boston - not because the people’s republic of Cambridge is going red this year but because you get Boston stations in New Hampshire.


68 posted on 09/25/2012 7:42:21 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Theodore R.


Do you think it could be fear of past racism in the Mormon church that has Romney terrified? Candidates know that it is white supporters of civil rights legislation that are they key, and they fear any hint of “racism.”.


There has been no racism in the Mormon church. And Romney is hardly "terrified".
69 posted on 09/25/2012 7:43:41 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: Hetty_Fauxvert
Very interesting about how the polls are skewed by over- and under-sampling. I just wonder, why would they routinely do this? It seems to me it would make their polls routinely inaccurate, and make them look like dummies when their predictions don’t pan out. Thoughts?

I will try this again , LOL! Cut and pasted the wrong quote last time.

It must be more important to them to try to influence how people vote than to be unbiased journalists. They think they can get away with lying and still keep their jobs. (Sadly, nothing has proven them wrong so far).

and you would think they would be embarrassed by how wrong their polls are. Gallup had Carter winning at this point. They have no credibility, yet are still getting paid.
70 posted on 09/25/2012 7:46:52 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: Alter Kaker; NYer
Two possibilities: some ads are national - there may be ads that Obama / Romney are airing nationally.

I thought of that and it would apply to the network cable ads on TV, but not the local radio stations. I am in the center of California, that he would have to be targeting only this Valley with those ads.
71 posted on 09/25/2012 7:49:41 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: yorkiemom; NYer
I thought of that and it would apply to the network cable ads on TV, but not the local radio stations. I am in the center of California, that he would have to be targeting only this Valley with those ads.

I don't know -- to what extent are there national radio ads? I know Rush Limbaugh has them, not sure about on other shows/networks (I'm guessing Obama isn't advertising on Limbaugh).

If Romney had a chance in California, wouldn't it make sense for his campaign to say so? It would cause a surge of volunteers, donations, etc. Instead, they've focused on all the usual suspects.

72 posted on 09/25/2012 8:01:16 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: yorkiemom

Here in Wino country/Californicator land, we subscribe to Infinity/Comcast tv which has the ability to use ads directed to our zipcodes for car dealers, contractors, local restaurants. There have been a ton of Obozo ads an anti Romney ads this past month.

Due to white guilt, Obozo carried our zip codes with a wide margin in 2008.

Why would the rats waste any TV ads in California unless Obozo is in trouble?

“You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?

I have noticed this in California as well. I’ve seen ads not only on TV but have heard them on the radio stations as well. Should be a waste of money to even bother.

Could be he fears a landslide and doesn’t want it to be any more embarrassing than it has to be.”


73 posted on 09/25/2012 8:07:23 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: Grampa Dave

And I’m seeing Ad’s in Seattle, now thats weird............,in 2008 the rats were off the hook enthusiastic about Obama around here. Now you are really hard presses to find a bumper sticker for Obama.


74 posted on 09/25/2012 8:11:16 AM PDT by cmsgop ( The left always accuses the right for the sins of the left. from FReeper Just Lori, RIP)
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To: Ron C.
Is anyone paying attention to Intrade 2012 Pres Election these days?

Obama $7.24, 72.9%

Mittens $2.72, 27.2%

These are supposed folk who put their money where their mouths are.
75 posted on 09/25/2012 8:16:08 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: gleeaikin

“We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.”

We have the same question.

We have several younger relatives who are conservative independents or conservative Republicans, who only have cell phones since they got out of college or started working for a living. Basically none of their friends have land line phones.

My wife has seen an interesting shift with widows and divorcees, who are over 60. They have low cost cellphones and a slow speed/cheap DSL if they use the internet. They don’t bundle any phones/computer connections with their basic tv service due to the cost of bundling.

We both know retired couples, who travel a lot, who have gone to the I phones for their phone needs. They cancelled their land line phones shortly after buying an I phone or and Android.

So how are these people taken in for polling accuracy.


76 posted on 09/25/2012 8:19:25 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: cmsgop

Again, why would the DNC waste money advertising the Obozo in Seattle or in the SF Gay/er Bay area?


77 posted on 09/25/2012 8:21:14 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: Conscience of a Conservative

“How ‘bout eliminating them?”

Good luck with that. Can you name me 2 politicians in statewide offices who got elected with that agenda in last 50 years?

Reality is reality....ignore it at your own peril. Losers in elections can not effect ANY change. Just ask Joe Miller,
Doug Hoffman, Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donell, Ken Buck,
JD Hayworth etc. what laws they have been able to change.


78 posted on 09/25/2012 9:10:18 AM PDT by entropy12
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To: Ron C.

There’s no question that Romney is leading in national polls that accurately forecast the relative turnout of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Obama’s support among white voters has declined dramatically in the last three years.


79 posted on 09/25/2012 11:50:44 AM PDT by socialism_stinX (...and communism stinks even worse!)
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To: Hetty_Fauxvert
Thank you for posting this! Very interesting about how the polls are skewed by over- and under-sampling. I just wonder, why would they routinely do this?

Very simple. Say a pollster want to do a nationwide overnight presidential poll with a sample of 1000. They phone up enough people to get 1000 responses. After this they tabulate the results and find out how many claimed to be Democrat, Republican, Independent and how many are voting Obama or Romney. If the results show an over sampling of Democrats (very common these days) they do not try and balance the poll by phoning up more Republicans. They issue the poll results as is

BTW Rasmussen says that nationwide there are more people identifying as Republicans than Democrats

 

Saturday, September 01, 2012

After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July  and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.


80 posted on 09/25/2012 12:00:32 PM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: Grampa Dave

Good question. The only reasons I can think of are: 1) Maybe the DNC gets some kind of a discounted advertising rate on national ads that run everywhere in America and fill up empty advertising time that hasn’t already been sold, or 2) as someone else mentioned, the Obama campaign knows that Romney has a solid lead and they’re trying to limit the size of Romney’s victory in the national popular vote, to limit how much political capital Romney acquires from his victory. If it isn’t for one of those reasons, then it’s beyond me why they’re advertising in solid blue regions.


81 posted on 09/25/2012 12:01:29 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (...and communism stinks even worse!)
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To: socialism_stinX

Expensive tv ads in NY, Seattle, Gay Frisco area and ?.

Another reason, we don’t want liberals spending our tax money.

They can’t make good money decisions even with their own money.

Of course we have not figured in matching government funds.


82 posted on 09/25/2012 12:06:20 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: Alter Kaker
If Romney had a chance in California, wouldn't it make sense for his campaign to say so? It would cause a surge of volunteers, donations, etc. Instead, they've focused on all the usual suspects.

I would think so. However, it is not common for Republicans ever sound hopeful or toot their own horn. And with the MSM polls the way they are, he would sound ridiculous.

that was just for the sake of argument. I'm sure he hasn't a chance here. It is just really odd to be hearing Obama ads - I do not remember them four years ago.
83 posted on 09/25/2012 12:18:01 PM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: popdonnelly

"Don’t get overconfident. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over."

VERY true! We must all work like we're behind in the polls!

Funny thing that... the more the media claim the ZERO is up, the more people turn up at Romney campaign headquarters around the country to work!

84 posted on 09/25/2012 1:07:36 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Theodore R.
"...Romney is slowly falling behind..."

Just the very large crowds Romney is constantly attracting - on a near daily basis - pretty much tells the story. He isn't falling behind, he is gaining, particularly in the so-called 'battleground' states.

Frankly, I think his election will be quite decisive - not the squeaker that some in the GOP talk of.

85 posted on 09/25/2012 1:14:32 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: entropy12

I’ve been trying to get him to add CONGRESSIONAL TERM LIMITS to his platform. Haven’t seen it yet but I’ll keep at it.


86 posted on 09/25/2012 1:17:03 PM PDT by cherokee1 (skip the names---just kick the buttz)
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To: Alter Kaker
"...I'm skeptical of blogger self-proclaimed experts..."

Normally so am I, and we all should be. However we also know the depth of deception within major media, and their hired pollsters.

Chambers rightly 'un-skews' these polls by simply dropping the excessive over-polling of Dim-crats and 'independents' to rational fairness, and telling the truth that is readily revealed. And, he's not the only one working on this task... he has a lot of help from honest and capable people.

87 posted on 09/25/2012 1:24:43 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Cheerio
Intrade is not at all reliable in elections - proven time after time to be wrong. One pundit put it this way...

"After the better part of a decade in which various markets, from Intrade to the stock market, became many people’s preferred way to peer into the future, a backlash is clearly under way. Not so long ago, knowing about the existence of Intrade was a mark of being in the vanguard. Today, mocking Intrade, ideally on Twitter, is a sign of sophistication."

88 posted on 09/25/2012 1:38:05 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.
Well if you put it like that, then yes he's winning so far.
89 posted on 09/25/2012 3:25:14 PM PDT by mcleodglen
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To: Leto

THANK YOU for sharing this. I was down in the dumps listening to Joe Trippi mention how the independents are all veering toward Obama and that the registered democrats have increased considerably this year. When Karl Rove didn’t dispute it I began to believe it.


90 posted on 09/25/2012 5:09:51 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: driftless2

Hume feels that unless Romney better clarifies his positions and corrects some of Obama’s lies, this election will be lost. When asked if Romney can make up for lost time during the debates, he fears it will put tremendous pressure on Romney and he isn’t sure there’s enough time. Not very encouraging to say the least!


91 posted on 09/25/2012 5:18:01 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: VRWCRick; NormsRevenge; Grampa Dave; SierraWasp; TigersEye; GeronL; justa-hairyape; Marine_Uncle; ..
Oh....Ireally like that graphic....
92 posted on 09/25/2012 5:54:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; VRWCRick

That is excellent! Saved for printing.


93 posted on 09/25/2012 6:01:04 PM PDT by TigersEye (dishonorabledisclosure.com - OPSEC (give them support))
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To: onyx

Thanks.


94 posted on 09/25/2012 6:10:41 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Yeah. I downloaded it to my system yesterday. We shall see how accurate it is within a bit more then a month.


95 posted on 09/25/2012 6:18:12 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned.)
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To: Hetty_Fauxvert
I just wonder, why would they routinely do this? It seems to me it would make their polls routinely inaccurate, and make them look like dummies when their predictions don’t pan out. Thoughts?

For the most part, the public pollsters are contractors.

The media contracts for the poll and, as the customer, is entitled to make certain specifications -- what questions to ask and who to ask them of. If they request a Dem +10 sample, they'll get it. Whether to use all adults, registered voters or likely voters...you name it, it's up to the customer.

Until a few weeks before the election...when the pollster reserves the right to adjust the turnout model to something resembling reality. A step which is, of course, designed to protect the pollster's credibility.

At this point, note that Rasmussen does NOT have a media sponsor. Instead, they are subscription based. And, since they don't have a media master to please, their polls are generally more reliable (and the samples more realistic).

96 posted on 09/25/2012 6:35:59 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; VRWCRick

Thanks for the alert Ernest.

Very nice graphic VRWCRick!


97 posted on 09/25/2012 7:03:19 PM PDT by potlatch (~~And the truth IS what counts, RIGHT ? ~~)
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To: yorkiemom
"The high income earners pay in substantially more percentagewise and will now never get that back. The lower income earners will get all their money back and quite a bit more."

It's disgusting. And I'm not a "1%'r" by any means but every year I get that report from the SS detailing my lifetime contributions I want to vomit. (I expect BO to have them stop printing that soon.) In my 31 working years, I and my employer have "contributed" roughly $300,000 to this program. I expect to work another 10 years or so, so let's say it winds up at $400K. Even assuming a mundane 3 - 4% interest, compounded over that time I could have CONSERVATIVELY another half-million in my retirement account. The chances I'll get anything approaching that from our government masters? Hah. I've actually run my finances assuming ZERO from SS. Which may very well be what I get.

Hank

98 posted on 09/25/2012 10:49:12 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: yorkiemom

You have to pay close attention to what outlet they’re on. For instance I’m noticing that Filth is running a TON of ads on national networks like ESPN, Lifetime, Bravo, etc. I’ve not seen a single Romney ad on any of those networks. You may be watching these Filth ads in California....but they’re nation-wide.

Hank


99 posted on 09/25/2012 10:54:11 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: StarFan

Which is all the more repulsive considering that Hume might as well have been wearing a “Romney 2012” button during the primary season.

Hank


100 posted on 09/25/2012 10:56:37 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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