Todd Akin staying in Senate race on last day to drop out

The Global Post ^ | September 25, 2012 | Sarah Wolfe

[BillyBoy]

Good analysis of the 10 races you mentioned, but I noticed you omitted Florida on the "top 10 races most likely to flip", even though it's more of a GOP friendly state than Connecticut or New Mexico (which both currently have RAT incumbents like Florida). Is this an indirect acknowledgment that Connie Mack IV is a weak candidate and not the "electable" guy the GOP establishment touted him as during the primary?

[Impy]

Well we knew Toddie wasn’t gonna quit.

He only trails narrowly now so that sucker is still on the list (if not top 10, close). I’d like to smack him but we gotta try to elect him instead.

Wisconsin, hey maybe I’m nuts but like with North Dakota I’m skeptical even though the latest Ras has her up 3 (and he had her up big a couple months ago, very queer). The muncher from Madison isn’t gonna beat Tommy Thompson.

Many recent polls to my surprise have the race in PA pretty close so that needs our attention. WA post has moved it to “lean d”.

With Brown, he’s been down in recent polls, (tied in Rasmussen). I’ve figured on him to win but yes, it’s MA. Another rare race (like with Mia Love) where it’s helpful Romney is on the ballot, he will lose MA big but crack 40% and do better than anyone else would have.

Less worried about Heller even though PPP(D) has him down 4. I’ve not liking recent polls by that firm, they curiously have the rats narrowly ahead in every key race.

Indiana, Mourdock needs to get himself in gear. Surprising but again the democrat actually winning that seems beyond the pale. I agree the potus margin is important, Donnelly needs crossover votes from Lugar lovers. High undecided vote in most polls I’ve seen, I’d don’t see those breaking D.

Florida, more likely than New Mexico (so is Ohio and Indiana to flip to D belongs under the top ten and probably under Nevada as second most vulnerable GOP seat) I’d say. Polling has been inconsistent in Florida.

If we end up having Linda McMahon to thank for 51, well that would be something.

[LS]

Really disappointed in Mack. Nelson is the lamest, yet we can’t seem to defeat this guy. If we get a majority thanks to Akin, fine-—I still think he’s a selfish pig, but he’s our selfish pig.

[BillyBoy]

>> Well we knew Toddie wasn’t gonna quit. He only trails narrowly now so that sucker is still on the list (if not top 10, close). I’d like to smack him but we gotta try to elect him instead.
If we end up having Linda McMahon to thank for 51, well that would be something. <<

McMahon and Akin are doing far better than I expected, but I still can't see either defeating the RAT incumbent on election day. If either one (or ideally, both) get elected, I'll be eating crow and have to apologize to their fan clubs here. Akin would actually be a fairly decent Senator. Won't expect much from McMahon, but she'd be better than a full-fledged RINO like Mike Castle.

>> Wisconsin, hey maybe I’m nuts but like with North Dakota I’m skeptical even though the latest Ras has her up 3 (and he had her up big a couple months ago, very queer). The muncher from Madison isn’t gonna beat Tommy Thompson.
With Brown, he’s been down in recent polls, (tied in Rasmussen). I’ve figured on him to win but yes, it’s MA. Another rare race (like with Mia Love) where it’s helpful Romney is on the ballot, he will lose MA big but crack 40% and do better than anyone else would have.
<<

I think TT and Brown will ultimately prevail on Election Day, though it probably won't be the big margins we hoped for. TT would really have to screw up badly to lose to that commie, he's polling poorly now after a slew of negative ads but we still have a while until election day and I think he'll rebound in October. Massachusetts is extremely liberal, the number of people there who would vote RAT if Jesus himself was the GOP nominee is considerable (in fact, being Jesus would probably hurt his appeal with the number of RATs who hate all forms of Christianity) Still, RINO Brown still has charisma and there are enough Indy voters, even left-of-center people who will otherwise vote RAT but pull the lever for him.

>> Many recent polls to my surprise have the race in PA pretty close so that needs our attention. WA post has moved it to “lean d”. <<

I think the positive news with the current polls is that nobody expected us to have a shot at Penn. or Maine, but at appears we could "theoretically" win both at this stage if we play our cards right. Maine is pretty much the only Republican seat that was EXPECTED to go RAT, so if we keep it, we might need to only win 4 or so Senate races to have a majority. If Romney manages to win Penn. on election day, there's a good chance we could win the Senate seat as well. Problem will be massive RAT votes in Philly and Pittsburgh.

>> Indiana, Mourdock needs to get himself in gear. Surprising but again the democrat actually winning that seems beyond the pale. I agree the potus margin is important, Donnelly needs crossover votes from Lugar lovers. High undecided vote in most polls I’ve seen, I’d don’t see those breaking D. <<

Another state where Mourdock SHOULD win easily, but has been lagging lately. I only think Donnelly would pull of an upset if he got Lugar to endorse and campaign for him, and Lugar's more of a squishy moderate instead of a vindictive liberal scum like Scozzafava or Chafee, so that won't happen.

>> Really disappointed in Mack. Nelson is the lamest, yet we can’t seem to defeat this guy. <<

Can't say I didn't warn the "So what if Mack is an elitist jerk who spit in the face of conservatives, let's just sweep it under the rug cuz he's ELECTABLE against Nelson!" crowd. I'm guessing a 52% Nelson - 48% Mack result in November. Hope I'm wrong. We can't afford to let Obama win FL again, and having Mack at the top of the ticket doesn't help Romney. Pretty much the whole idea is people would vote for him because they fondly remember daddy. Doesn't seem to be happening.

[Impy]

Hmm, it’s rat biased Quinnipiac which I’ve been told is useless outside of the northeast (it has PA 49-43) but they have Nelson up huge 53-39. I think Romney wins the state but not by all that much, Mack can’t afford to be more than a 2-3 points behind him. He’s 5 points behind Romney according to Quinnipiac (which absurdly has Obama doing BETTER in Florida than he did in 2008, the sampling in these polls is ridiculous).

McMahon is an open seat. The difference this time, while Blumenthal had a scandal and it was a GOP year, he was the most popular SOB in the State so he was able to still easily win. Murphy is just a generic rat and McMahon’s campaign seems slicker this time in the encore race.

[Clintonfatigued]

“Is this an indirect acknowledgment that Connie Mack IV is a weak candidate and not the “electable” guy the GOP establishment touted him as during the primary? “

It is. I opposed Connie Mack IV in the primary and it was clear that state Republicans hoped they could fool some voters because he shares a name with his popular father. It was a bad call.