Romney camp trusts own data, strategy, not public polls, in Ohio

nbcnews ^ | September 25, 2012 ; 53 minutes ago | Garrett Haake

[Leto]

I haven’t seen anybody talking about secret polls.

I have seen people (including me) look at the internals of the MSM polls, do a little research on historical data, build our own spreadsheets, reverse engineer the MSM propaganda and understand the game the media is playing.

Nothing secret here just a little knowledge of math needed.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

If you go to this link on David Leip’s website and wave your mouse arrow over the “Swing” button, it shows how far Ohio’s counties have swung Democrat from 2004. As you’ll see, the swing in NW Ohio was the biggest, so a strong GOP return from there will likely mean O is cooked.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=39&f=1&off=0&elect=0

Thanks for the links. Some of the absentee counts are very low, but I did find a few that were interesting.

Williams County: Rs up 36%-11% with 1472 ballots requested. That county’s on the Ohio/Indiana border and had one of the steepest dropoffs from Bush to McCain. In 04, it gave 65% to Bush, but in 08, it plunged to just 54% for McCain. This is one of the NW Ohio counties I mentioned earlier. I’m guessing this is historical GOP territory that swings when the economy gets sour, kind of like NE Indiana is.

1,472 ballots for a county that cast 18,396 votes in 08 is nothing to sneeze at. I’m sure more will be coming, but it’s substantial compared to the other absentee numbers we’re seeing.

I’ve also noticed the absentees from Licking County. Bush: 62%, McCain: 57%. This county looks like part of the outer suburban ring of Columbus. Licking has 11,616 requests so far, compared to 29,208 in 08. In 08, Rs had a 0.37% advantage over Ds. Right now, they have a 15.85% advantage over Ds. And there are similar large spikes in Union and Pickaway counties, also part of Columbus metro, where it looks like about a fourth of the 08 absentee totals have come in so far.

This trend would seem to confirm the GOP lead in Franklin County (city of Columbus) so far. I wish the site had the absentees for Franklin in 08, because that would be really telling. I don’t expect Romney to actually carry Franklin (I think only Portman actually won it in 2010 among the GOP statewide winners) but he doesn’t have to. He just has to hold his loss to single digits. (I suspect Obama’s inflated 59% was largely due to the “yuts” from the university and higher black turnout. By contrast, Kerry got 54% and Strickland in 2010 got 53%)

Granted, this could change, but as each day passes, Dems would have to make up an increasing number of the remaining absentees to turn it around, and then they would have to make up a huge number of the voters on Election Day. In other words, Obama would need a huge “hidden vote” to propel him to victory. Given all the anecdotal evidence I’ve been reading of much fewer Obama signs out there, it must be hidden indeed!

[TomEwall]

“For the Romney campaign, Tuesday brought yet more bad news from the Buckeye state: a new Washington Post poll showed the Republican presidential nominee trailing President Barack Obama ...”

I’m sure the Romney campaign is really troubled by Washington Post polls. Or do you suppose the Romney campaign has its own polls run by people who actually know what they’re doing?

[LS]

Great analysis. I’ve asked for some other input from a GOP pollster.

[tanknetter]

People who ignore or dismiss MSM polls are being stupid.

First, the MSM polls can be reinterpreted by changing the internals. For instance, if a poll is released with Obama up by 5 but with D+11 the results can be adjusted to show reality (so adjust for a D+2 assumption)

Second, these polls are being used to manipulate public opinion. The only worthwhile figure in that WaPo poll is the one showing 60% think Romney is running a crappy campaign. That’s far enough outside the MoE and MoM (margin of manipulation) that it’s a real issue (just a 52% one, not a 60% one). It shows that people are buying the incompetant Romney Campaign narrative.