Posted on 09/26/2012 4:35:57 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Our colleagues take a close look today at Republicans' path to 51 in the Senate now that the Missouri Senate race is tilting in Democrats' favor.
(RELATED: NRSC Softens Stance on Akin)
Republicans thought they could count on Rep. Todd Akin to beat Sen. Claire McCaskill, but since his comments about rape, polling suggests the GOP is in trouble in the Show-Me State.
(RELATED: DeMint, Santorum Are Backing Akin Now)
Reid Wilson explains:
Republicans believe Akin's comments all but disqualify him from office, and several polls taken during the last month show McCaskill surging ahead.
But there are broader ramifications: Republicans need to win a net of four seats to take control of the Senate, and they counted Missouri as one of the states they would certainly win.
So how will the GOP get to 51 in the Senate?
Now, the GOP is investigating other paths to a majority, paths that meander through more Democratic-leaning states like Connecticut and Maine, and through more entrenched Democratic incumbents in Florida and Ohio.
Republicans have plenty of opportunities to get to the 51 seats they would need to control the Senate outright. Polling shows Sen. Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska is almost certain to turn red, while Sen. Jon Tester is running slightly behind Rep. Denny Rehberg in a recent Mason-Dixon survey in Montana. But Republican candidates are running behind expectations in North Dakota, Wisconsin and Indiana, and vulnerable Republican incumbents in Massachusetts and Nevada give Democrats room to expand the playing field. Polls even show longer-shot Democratic hopes like Arizona narrowing as voters tune in.
We want 60 seats.
I thought Akin should have quit. He didn’t. So let’s get him in there.
Look, 51 isn’t safe.
Anyone here trust Lisa Murkowski? Not me. Nor McInsane. Nor Lindsey Graham.
Akin may have had a bad sound bite, but he’ll be a damn conservative vote in the Senate.
RE: We want 60 seats.
That’s a very nice THOUGHT. Whether that’s going to happen is another matter altogether.
Instead of trying to find a weasel way around Akin, why not just support him? Biden is gaffe-o-matic but the Dhims dont try to cover him up.
Instead of trying to find a weasel way around Akin, why not just support him? Biden is gaffe-o-matic but the Dhims dont try to cover him up.
We won’t get it. Not this time around.
Yes! Imagine demanding the same fealty of mittbots to Akin that the mittbots demand of Conservatives to mitt?
Are people in Missouri THAT imbecilic that they would actually CHANGE their vote because of that remark? I’m not getting this at all. Akin was ahead of what’s-her-name because they were totally fed up with her, but they are now going to vote for her because her opponent made a remark. What am I missing?
I want Akin to win.
I am sick of the GOPe and panty waist Republicans.
I don’t trust Scott Brown either if he gets in.
51 GOP seats mean the Democrats win everything 53-47
The GOP, and PACs need to carpet bomb Ohio and Florida.
They would defeat Nelson and Brown (to take the Senate) and help Romney - a twofer.
Basically you can treat anything the National Journal publishes the same way you would treat a press release from Harry Reid's office.
He should win and become an independent after taking his seat
The GOP will get a majority in the Senate and Akin will be one of the new Senators.
RE: Are people in Missouri THAT imbecilic that they would actually CHANGE their vote because of that remark?
Here’s recent history for your reference -— George Allen used the word “Macaca” to describe a mixed race person.
Does anyone believe that he lose the 2006 Senate elections to Jim Webb because he used that term? Or did he lose because of the general anti-republican sentiment in 2006 that caused Congress to swing Democrat?
I find it hard to believe that the Virginians are so shallow that they would allow the single use of this word to overshadow POLICY issues.
Easily. The Republicans will want to "reach across the aisle" (gag) and "share" leadership with their "esteemed" (retch) colleagues. I can see McCain making the speech now. Lots of applause led by Schmuckie Schumer and Stinky Reid.
RE: The GOP will get a majority in the Senate and Akin will be one of the new Senators.
Interesting. We’d like to understand what factors you base your predictions on...
akin needs more than just the Conservative vote to win.
Independent and women voters do not like his rape and uterus commentary.
Apologies do not seem to be working for akin.
The GOP can not afford to look like they support his comments.
I do not see any path to victory for akin.
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