Skip to comments.Noted Economist Says You Should be Worried About Latest Durable Goods Report: Here’s Why
Posted on 09/29/2012 1:05:50 PM PDT by nhwingut
Demand for durable goods (i.e. items that are expected to last for at least three years) is on the decline and a report released on Thursday shows that it has sunken to levels not seen since 2009 the height of the Great Recession.
The Commerce Department said Thursday that total durable goods orders fell 13.2 percent in August. Thats the biggest drop since January 2009 when the country was in recession. Aircraft orders fell by nearly 102 percent, pulling down the headline figure, the Associated Press reports.
Economists had originally predicted a decline of maybe 5 percent. Obviously, they were off by just a little.
U.S. manufacturing has weakened since the spring. Factories have been hurt by weaker consumer spending and slower global growth that has cut demand for U.S. exports, the AP adds.
Okay, so whats the big deal? Maybe we shouldnt read too much into the data, right?
Well, according to economist David Rosenberg, theres a part of the report that should raise some red flags. If you look at the three-month moving average* of non-defense capital goods orders (or core capex [capital expenditures] orders) excluding aircraft in Thursdays durable goods report, youll note that it was -4.1 percent in August.
(Excerpt) Read more at theblaze.com ...
It’s official, we have entered the Obayma depression.
Now THAT is BAD! How does that work?
If we can't keep borrowing enough money from China to keep the EBT cards working and mask the existence of the Greater Depression, we're going to have to send the Navy out to conquer some countries so we can confiscate and sell off their gold to raise cash. I guess Libya didn't have enough left in their vaults, except for the debased tungsten-core stuff. Maybe some "Cubans" will try to take over the Cayman Islands, and give Obama the pretext he needs. :)
People are scared to spend on anything right now, if you know what I mean - and I think you do. Thus, November 7th might mark a short-term rally start date.
Welcome to the Depression
While that may be true, the news reports I hear, claim consumer confidence is up and retail sales projections are also..........go figure.
Romney can't beat Obama on the economy, he needs to destroy him personally by revealing all the fraud and corruption!!!
Now THAT is BAD! How does that work?
I'm not sure how it works in that case, but it could work that way if more orders were cancelled than were made.
I always thought one of the best lines of attack on Obama would be going after his administration’s grotesque record of crony-corruption and sleaze. It’s one of the only subjects that even makes libs themselves squirm, when it is courtesy of one of their own. And it appeals to independents too. But the GOP-E types avoided it like the plague, seemingly giving Obama a free pass (and making me doubt any interest Romney and his team might actually have in these matters).
Cancellations of existing orders.
Why would they need to conquer other nations to get gold when all obama has to do is order everyone to turn over their personal gold.
I don’t feel good about this election. Can anyone explain why the GOP stuffed Romney down our throats other than they either
A) are in cahoots with the dems and want to this country
B) they know a collapse is coming and they don’t want to be in charge
C) they’re just plain incompetent
Any other ideas?
Good. Starve the regulation-obsessed B. It doesn’t need more stinkin’ revenues. Let’s see how far she can go on debt alone.
One party is socialist and leans a little more toward shoveling more of the debt to federal incomes (more regulation/monitoring against large, government-linked businesses). The other party is socialist and leans a little more toward shoveling more of the debt to local government incomes (more local regulation/monitoring against private sector individuals).
Local governments receive much from federal funding to watch and prosecute local individuals and families to prevent them from rising to compete in business. One solution to that problem is that of falling residential real estate prices (shrinking property taxes). The other is general default.
Most individuals with higher incomes are quite dependent on government for those incomes. Even service businesses depend on customers with government incomes.
Both parties are fascist on issues of political correctness (trying to shove their social pathologies into the brains and habits of the more common, realistic majority of the population). See comment #11, just after yours, and get ready. Both political parties have destroyed most of the private sector and most of its families.
Without a large and truly domestic manufacturing base (i.e., not only “US-based”) and the common morality of yesteryear, we deserve what we are about to receive.
And they're not lying. The part they don't understand is that consumer spending does not drive the economy. Business-to-business spending is a larger percentage of the GDP and it's business investment that creates economic growth. The Keynesians [and our nation is infested with them] don't care about business.
After all, you can't be a consumer until you produce something to sell [or until the government compels someone to produce for you.]
They've been wrong, of course, for 80 years since FDR was president. But, hey, who's counting?
And I’m afraid that “what we are about to receive” ain’t gonna’ be pretty. The only question is how long before it gets very bad? I think it’ll be no longer than two years. What say you?
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