Well, there are Catholics, and then there are Catholics. These purport to call themselves Catholics, yet are four-square behind the Kenyan:
Posted on 09/30/2012 6:57:26 AM PDT by SMGFan
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters.
First, some points about the limits of polls. Random-sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot such an outlier; sometimes not.
In addition, it's getting much harder for pollsters to get people to respond to interviews. The Pew Research Center reports that it's getting only 9 percent of the people it contacts to respond to its questions. That's compared with 36 percent in 1997.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Several reasons. First, female graduate students are OVERWHELMINGLY liberal. This point is not remotely worth arguing. Even the best pollsters have trouble keeping their own feelings and preferences hidden. Female graduate students, otoh, are conditioned not to even try to hide their feelings and preferences. They have been misled into believing that their opinions, feelings and moods represent nothing less than Truth, Justice and the American Way. Superman would envy such iron-clad, bullet-proof, corrosion and rust resistant self esteem.
Second, everyone knows and understands point number one. When they encounter a FGS pollster, they assume rule one applies, and unless they want to get hassled or get into a debate, they will, deliberately or subconsciously, tell her what they think she wants to hear.
Third, as P.J. O’Rouke observed, when he was in college a lot of guys feigned liberal attitudes, because that’s were the chicks were, and liberal chicks are easy. So guys will adopt liberal attitudes and cliches, and sometimes, you know, half convince themselves that they believe that crap. They really just want to get into your pants.
Indeed a fine tool.
What I remember about it is the null has to be that the factors are NOT related [independent] ie null could be the percentages are NOT the same as in the voter registrations
Then if the null is rejected, accept the alternate hypothesis and hence percentages of poll respondents IS related [dependent on] party ID... there IS a lurking variable.
I always liked stat. Math but real world.
How ANY catholic could vote for The Kenyan after what he is doing to their doctrine is beyond me.
Rush just reads Drudge on the air. I can read that myself. Sean knows less about conservatism than my 11-year old - a "Cliffs Notes" conservative who means well but isn't terribly bright.
Mark Levin is the only one of the three worth your time.
After Wed night’s debate I imagine you will see some changes in the polls. Mitt is going to look very presidential and very sharp.
Other than Ann Romney, no one is coming out to vote for Romney. They are coming out to vote against the other guy.Romney’s strength in this race is the other guy’s failure. He needs to capitalize on it. To date, he has not.The only message Romney should have 24/7 is the other guy is a failure. Eye on the ball, please.
Romney needs to take the tack of “It’s not that I’m rooting for Obama’s policies to fail. It’s that I understand that the government cannot spend its way out of debt and into prosperity any more than you can. Eventually, you have to pay your bills and despite the fancy talk and complicated money policies, so does the government.”
A nine percent response rate is unacceptable for social science survey work. If you don’t have at least a 30% response, you couldn’t get a paper based on the survey published in any reputable journal in the social or behavioral sciences.
Agree. Very similar in the corporate world as it relates to surveying employees.
Rush just reads Drudge on the air.
And other articles, which you would be knowledgeable on if you surf the net before his show.
Most of the time I find him covering topics that FR has posted, and commented on .
Do enjoy his take, so he’s worth listening too.
Agree that Levin , is the take no prisoners guy with very precise questions, and demands for equal responses.
Sean if informative, and can be a bulldog, but needs to avoid the crosstalk on his panels, and focus on 1 or 2 points.
You don’t have to prove yourself on each and every comment.
Rush just reads Drudge on the air. I can read that myself.
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Yes but he pretends that he “discovered” each news item by only mentioning the linked news outlet and never Drudge. Rush needs to pack it in and buy a nice Island... he’s been worthless since about 2006/shamnesty etc.... he’s been threatened into silence over eligibility and other hot-button topics... maybe he should let one of his fill-ins take over... He’s mentioned dozens of times that he’s bad with money and that he has “safe” holdings (which I’ve taken to mean bonds or bond funds) ,,, he could be bankrupt shortly when rates increase and he can’t unwind fast enough with all his fixed costs... Wouldn’t bother me in the least as he is so damn arrogant regarding people that have lost their life savings due to world changes...
The simplest chi-square test is a test for independence, but there is a fancier version that tests the likelihood that a set of responses with any number of discrete values (say D, R and I) was drawn at random from an population with given frequencies, which is what I’m advocating using here.
(Actually the last time I did a chi-square test it was to see whether the random number generator used on the online hex-grid wargaming site hexwar.com simulated a fair die. It rejected the null hypothesis, but the folks who run the site didn’t take notice to my objection. I’m a pure mathematician not a statistician, though I keep up my stats since my wife does psychological research and I end up helping out when she works at home and can’t consult a proper statistician in a timely manner.)
Hannity has gotten so stump-hole-stupid that I will listen to my tinnitus rather than listen to Hannity.
Well, there are Catholics, and then there are Catholics. These purport to call themselves Catholics, yet are four-square behind the Kenyan:
Sorry, don’t SEE him quoted here much.
Good post!
I attend a couple different Catholic Churches. Recently at the one, a small congregation of maybe 250, the priest discussed the healthcare mandate and how there will be civil disobedience. The entire congregation stood and applauded him. At another church I also attend, the congregation is ten times the small church. When the priest discussed the horrors of abortion, 2 people stood and walked out. The remaining 2498 congregants sat quietly and listened intently.
I have hopes for my religion of choice.
>> “I have hopes for my religion of choice.” <<
Christ is not “religion,” he is The Way; religion is all else.
I agree
And forget about Sean; he works for Murdoch& Co.
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