Posted on 10/01/2012 9:57:01 PM PDT by Ravi
above
(Excerpt) Read more at wdtn.com ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
What does this mean? You are completely devoid of information.
Poll ping.
You should follow threads by LS and myself over the past few days. Shorthand version: dems greatly outvoted us in early/absentee voting in 08 by 14%. Their margin is now down to 5%. These are ballots requested by dems/repubs/indies. 920,000 ballots have been requested - most will be returned (over 90% historically). Look at the spreadsheet not necessarily in totality but individual county and compare 2008 requests from dems/repubs and 2012 requests from dems/repubs. Therein lies your answer. Many caveats of course but trendlines look good.
You should follow threads by LS and myself over the past few days. Shorthand version: dems greatly outvoted us in early/absentee voting in 08 by 14%. Their margin is now down to 5%. These are ballots requested by dems/repubs/indies. 920,000 ballots have been requested - most will be returned (over 90% historically). Look at the spreadsheet not necessarily in totality but individual county and compare 2008 requests from dems/repubs and 2012 requests from dems/repubs. Therein lies your answer. Many caveats of course but trendlines look good.
They can’t steal the election by busing in a bunch of illegal voters from across state lines. So they will use absentee ballots. Saves them the gas money and serves the same purpose.
No, not at all. It’s pretty tight with republican SOS in Ohio. This is overall good news.
So they are down but still lead? How does that result in a Romney win?
Number one, dems always vote early/absentee in Ohio. They had 14% more voters than us in 08 but only won the state by 5 points. If they only lead us by 5% in voters (not votes), using the crude measurement above, we should be ahead by 4 or 5. Right? However, many variables to consider: more dems will vote repub this year and indies favor us by some margin (conclusion above is based on no dems voting romney and no repubs voting Obama and indies splitting 50/50); the way you are labeled a dem or repub is at county level not state and based on you voting in a party primary (so some of the unaffiliated are dems/repubs but haven’t voted in a party - we still have to figure that out); large dem counties in 08 mailed ballot applications to all their voters, this year, the state mailed ballots apps to ALL registered voters throughout the state. So all these factors at play but the easiest thing to assess for me is go individual county by individual county and see the difference between 08 and 12. What a difference 4 years makes. Hope that helps.
Thanks for doing the legwork for all of us.
It’s not really much. Data is there to sift through and play around with and see which way things might be shifting. I’ve just been staring it down. All of the credit goes to the person who put this spreadsheet together for all 88 Ohio counties! I was just checking 3 myself (cuyahoga, hamilton and franklin). Jose I believe is his name and @ningrim on twitter. I follow him there.
I’ve been getting absentee ballots for years, automatically. Now I’m not on the list for some unknown reason. Hmmmmm..........
(no surprise—I live in Santa Cruz)
Not sure why that occurs...when I lived in San Jose, I voted each election at a nearby church, but one year, received an absentee ballot that stated I was now in an absentee-ballot only precinct. stayed that way for at least two elections (I moved after that). Do you know if you are in an absentee-only precinct?
If absentee ballots represent 20% of the total and the dem requests are down 9 percentage points from 2008 you can’t simply subtract 9 points from Obama’s win with ALL ballots (ie 5 point win - 9 points = 4 point loss). Assuming everything besides absentee voting is equal the correct math would be (5 point win - (9 points x 20%) = 3.2 win).
Sorry if I misunderstood something in your post.
There are 29 counties that haven’t reported data and not on the spreadsheet. McCain won 27 of them by huge margins. We need to see what those absentee ballot requests en up. Also some of the big republican counties don’t have data for 08 listed on the website so they at this time are not included in the totals (eg. Warren). Bottom line, we need more data points for an overall picture but for the individual counties like Franklin, Hamilton and Cuyahoga you can kind of get a better idea I believe. So a Cuyahoga margin of 260,000 in 08 currently stands at 54,000 and my guess is it ends up staying between 100 to 150 thousand (we’ll see). If that’s the case, then that is about a 110,000 to 160,000 margin that Romney needs to make up in the rest of the state. Bush made up an even greater margin than that in 2004. So at this point individual counties year to year I think is more pertinent. But you are correct, totals still not entirely clear yet. Lots of missing data.
If that's the margin he needs to make up, outside of Cuyahoga, he will win. Probably by 40,000 to 90,000 votes or .8% to 1.5% margin of victory. Outside the need for a recount.
Is it tomorrow that the missing counties will be reporting?
I believe some will fill in tomorrow.
Thank you for all the info
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