Posted on 10/02/2012 8:09:15 AM PDT by Ravi
This particular county is Cuyahoga the biggest. Obama got 460,000 votes to McCain’s 200,000. So a 54,000 vote difference here that ends up between 100 and 150 thousand will be will be much less than a 260,000 deficit from 08.
Wow, are you that dense? Any Pennsylvanian would tell you that if Romney came out of Philly getting “walloped” by 100,000 votes that Romney would win in a landslide. Cuyahoga went for Obama by 30+ points. Yeah, if we come out only down 54,000 out of Cuyahoga? Election over and Romney wins by 5.
Kindly try and acknowledge the difference between correlation and causation rather than totally disregarding statistics, thank you.
What happens in any one county does not necessarily predict what will happen overall. Keep your blankets dry, too!
Are you that lightweight?
I know my math pretty well. It’s my graduate degree and profession.
BTW, the numbers I was referring to were for the entire state, not for just one county.
Ravi/LS like to talk about about the county that is the equivalent of, say, Detroit, Philadelphia, or Seattle. In most states, almost all Ds come from one big blue pimple. If that pimple’s reduced in size significantly, then, yes, that portends to a big R victory.
There is nothing bad that can be spun out of these numbers, unless you wish to make a case of how the Independents might trend D or if a large percentage of those Republicans are from Operation Chaos.
Now, I think relly that you are not dense but your prejudices are clouding your judgment. Comparing 2012 to 2008 shows so far a sea change in R and D turnout.
Indeed. There could be a sufficient sea change from 2008 for a Romney win, and their could be an insufficient sea change in which he would lose.
I'm not sure what prejudices would be clouding me...btw. That I was nearly thrown off FR by JimRob for DARING to support Romney before JimRob changed his mind? I'd love to see Romney pull this out. I hope he does. But the dark clouds to that silver lining is that it will be generations before we can ever get back to 1984 because if this election is close enough to dither over these extrapolations where a near dictator incompetent is still winning anywhere, then yeah, I think it's not something to celebrate or be optimistic about. It's not the discovery of a hidden gem, it's the realization that we're in a collapsed mineshaft.
Cruise: There is nothing bad that can be spun out of these numbers, unless you wish to make a case of how the Independents might trend D or if a large percentage of those Republicans are from Operation Chaos.
Yes, that is the point. I'll repeat: if this election is still close enough to dither over these extrapolations where a near dictator incompetent is still winning anywhere, then yeah, I think it's not something to celebrate or be optimistic about.
Either we lose in a majority win for a marxist incompetent dictator, or we squeak by a win with pockets of wild enthusiasm for a marxist incompetent dictator ex, while Romney-elect will be jeered and smeared for his entire term by a fifth column press.
Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?!
I posted this comment from the Moe Lane blog in the other thread but it’s very good, so I’ll post it again here. The writer is “Bort” and he looked at the Ohio absentee spreadsheet link on Moe Lane’s blog.
“I don’t need polls or absentee ballot numbers to tell me that Romney will win Ohio. First, Obama won the state in 2008 by 4.5%. Does anybody actually think that Obama is in better shape today than 4 years ago? Hell no. Next, three states that border Ohio–Indiana, Kentucky, and W. Va.–have completely turned against Obama. 42% of W.Va. dems voted for a FELON over Obama; in Ky., 40% of dems voted “uncommitted” over Obama; and Obama’s campaign gave up on Indiana 2 years ago. Does anybody really believe that the Ohioans that live right across the border from these states are as enthused–let alone more enthused–for Obama this year? Hell no. Also, Obama is struggling in Western Pa., which borders Ohio as well. Next, Obama’s coal policies have ticked off Southeastern Ohio, which is Appalachia and coal country.
BTW, the most telling early absentee ballot count is in Warren County (Cincinnati suburb). Republicans have returned their absentee ballots in at a 5 to 1 clip over Democrats. This suggests that a huge Republican turnout is going to happen in this election, and a lot of Dems are going to stay home. Also, a higher turnout in Ohio benefits Republicans, b/c this means more whites will show up, and whites support Romney by 60/40.”
In that case, we can come to an agreement.
You are correct, irrational exuberance is not warranted by a long shot. This are good numbers, but we’d need landslide numbers to be truly confident; currently, this doesn’t mean an Obama victory is impossible.
In earnestness, thank you for clarifying your stance and for the gentle reminder. We must fight.
That's why engineers are allowed in the lab and the mathematicians are kept in their offices.
The theory is engrossing for the mathematician, but the application is irrelevant!
Lighten up, Francis.
I'm still a wet blanket!
You’re a good sport. Not many left!
But see, this is the wholly point: IF THESE NUMBERS HOLD UP-—AND AR REFLECTED IN FL, NC, NV, AND VA, then we are not talking about. Close lection at all. And if they ar so badly off from the polls here, ther is a very good chance that they in fact ar common everywhere. That’s not “extrapolation”, that’s logic and analysis.
Poll Ping.
Good work, Ravi.
You, LS, and JetJaguar all deserve a free ObummerPhone.
The Dems won't go quietly. They've got a killer instinct that the GOP seems to lack.
Ha. That’s right.
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