Skip to comments.Rasmussen: THU: 10/04: O: 49% R:47%: All numbers PRE-Debate. Obama -11
Posted on 10/04/2012 7:23:46 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Thursday, October 04, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
It is important to note, however, that most of the interviews for this survey were conducted before last nights first presidential debate between Obama and Romney. The daily Presidential Trackng Poll is based on telephone interviews of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Tomorrow's poll will have the first post debate sample in it and Sunday's poll will have the FULL post debate sample, although it will include both Friday and Saturday, which are not good Republican polling days
Not only that, but keep in mind that Ras has admitted his new polling numbers showing O consistently UP, are with a D+5 sampling model. He said he did that because he kept getting more self ID’d rats than in earlier polls. Even before this, he was using a D+ model, albeit far less in number than polls showing O way ahead. If Ras only would go back to his previous sampling model, his pre-debate numbers would essentially have the race a dead heat within the margin of error.
LOL. That's funny. And how do you explain Romney losing 2 points on Wednesday?
His pre-debate numbers ARE a dead heat. 49 to 47 is within the margin of error
But point taken on his high D+ samples.
Romney can have a bad day ANY DAY of the week.
However, for the past 8 years that I have followed Ras (and other pollsters) Republicans have “bad” weekends.
So, the trend is what I am talking about
We need to do the work and forget all this "modeling" garbage.
Yesterday I contacted six people about voting. Today's goal is the same. That's how we'll win.
Sounds like the basic modeling system they all use is broken.
Tomorrow will have some west coast post debate stuff in it. Saturday will have the numbers from today rolled in, and Tuesday will have three full days worked in.
But, based on the online stuff I am reading, the Dems would be better off having the Ryan/Biden debate after the next Presidential one. Obama got whacked, Biden is going to look like a fool, and Obama will have to deal with both going into round 2.
Mitt needed to hit it big, and he did.
It was Obama’s twentieth anniversary last night. In his mind he was confident he was going to get “it” by the end of the day. My bet is he did not think Mitt was the one to give him it.
Good thing Reggie Love wasn’t around. Methinks he would have gotten roughed up last night. Yeah...he walked into a doorknob.
You sure? D+5? I dont fault Rasmussen, because he is honest about his poll breakdowns. If D+5 is the case (and this is the first I ever heard of that), then I feel relieved.
I thought it was D+3.
When does Ras announce new partisan ID data?
The latest we have is from Sept. 1 for August, which by now is eons ago.
We should not just assume Ryan will come out on top, though I think that likely. But, Biden tends to not have his gaffe moments in debates.
Ryan need only stick with the game plan executed perfectly by Romney last night: stick to the facts, hammer on the issues, and be forcefully confident yet polite. The enemy cannot win based on the facts on the ground alone, so stick to the salient issues hurting the country and the principles we must preserve. I cannot imagine a scenario where Paul Ryan (who is even more fluent in the issues than Mitt) loses.
Just wait until the electorate witnesses Joe Biden bringing sexy back to the dem party in next week’s debate against Paul Ryan. LOL!!!
It is important to note, however, that most of the interviews for this survey were conducted before last nights first presidential debate between Obama and Romney.
Most numbers, yes. All numbers, no.
Ras is a 3-day roll. So if only, say, 20% of the polling from last night came post-debate, then only 6.67% of the total 3 day rolling poll is post-debate. Not enough to move the poll, certainly, in any significant manner.
Point taken. Thank you!
Same kind of groupthink that gave us “Anthropogenic Global Warming”.
Somebody needs to keep a list of these lefty discouragement trolls who have nothing better to do than try to deflate conservatives here.
This guy, someone named chopper something. All you have to do is look at their posts - unlike their president they’ve VERY transparent.