Posted on 10/04/2012 11:07:46 PM PDT by Ravi
above
(Excerpt) Read more at docs.google.com ...
NC: overall stable (114,000 ballot requests absentee - almost halfway to 2008 total of 250,000); Romney-52.7% Obama-26.5% (we are slightly better here compared to 2008. Again, need to know total early voting to fully gauge NC. Absentee ends up being about 10% of total early vote (9% in 2008 and 13% in 2004) so need to stay close with early vote and then we can fully engage election day. Dems-50% total early vote 2008; Repubs-31% total early vote 2008. We still only lost by 0.5%. A little goes a long way here.
IA: Republicans catching up is short answer for tonite. We are now 81,000 ballot requests behind the dems. It was 97,000 just 3 days ago. 155,000 ballot requests by dems and 74,000 by repubs as of 10/4 am. That is 52.7% to 26.5%. Again in 2010, it was 44 to 38 and 2008, it was 49 to 28. Need this to continue to improve. We do not need parity just keep it close and we can finish strong election day. 482,000 total early votes in 2008 and total turnout was 1.54 million. So about a 1/3 were early voters. We still have a lead in registration so no excuse why this gap cannot be made up with GOTV, etc. Also indies should drift our way compared to 2008. 292,700 total early voters here already. We potentially could have have the votes in here before election day.
OH - Difference between Dem/Rep ballot requests is 5.58%. Again much improved from the 14% spread in 08. The spreadsheet itself is up to date for big dem counties but becoming outdated for the smaller and larger republican counties. Elections officials I'm sure are busy and so we are at their mercy some. Also maybe the person piecing this together is a one man show (perhaps we could aid him somehow). It's easy to pull results for cuyahoga/hamilton/franklin but the smaller ones are a lot harder. Hamilton/Franklin look good still. Last updates for many republican counties was 10/2 and 10/3. As that information processes in, the ratio should go back to the low 5's and maybe high 4's. We'll see. Still much better overall compared to 2008. Here's one thing that stands out to me: Cuyahoga is becoming spent imo. 193,000 ballot requests thus far and they lead us by 60,000. 658,000 votes between McCain and Obama 2008. With the voter clean-up and purges and outmigration, turnout dips to what? I'd guess 600,000 plus minus. We'll see. That would be about 66% turnout of their total registered voters (916,000) as of 10/1/12. Does that seem reasonable? I think indies here are basically closet repubs or true indies b/c it seems rather popular to be a dem in this county and have voted in dem primaries at one time or another over the years. So these closeted voters (22% currently) I think will drift to Romney not like registered repubs but definitely in our direction. I give him 52 to 55% of this indie vote in Cuyahoga. So with that said: here are my tentative final votes for Cuyahoga: Dems-600,000 X .54 (their current percentage) + 132,000(indies) X .47 (my guess what percentage dems will get of indies) = 386,040 votes for Obama in Cuyahoga.
Romney in Cuyahoga: 600,000 X .23 (their current percentage) + 132,00 indies X .53 (my guess what percentage repubs will get of indies) = 208,000
That totals about a 178,000 difference between the two. Again it was 258,000 in 2008. We could make up 1/3 of the statewide deficit of 260,000 from 2008 in Cuyahoga alone. Things that would bust this algorithm obviously are if turnout ends up closer to 650,000 or those indies split 50/50 or trend Obama (doubtful) or more likely a fair amount of dems vote Romney (hard to say there but seems a little more likely than repubs voting Obama).
Any comments/suggesions/concerns appreciated. Tell me what you think I might be missing/overlooking/assuming or feel like I'm just pulling numbers out of thin air. Is their enough information here to get a handle on some of the bigger counties yet? Or too much wishful thinking on my part? Fire away.
Take care everyone.
Considering what has transpired over the past 4 years, this is bad news.
Considering what has transpired over the past 4 years, this is bad news.
I don’t see it that way.
good work and its great news
We voted last week.
Being good little FReepers, we're well informed on the issues and candidates, and not going to change our minds, short of somebody being unexpectedly indicted as a pedophile or exposed as a closet Obama supporter. By the time ballots are printed and ready, so are we.
OTOH, if one is undecided, then waiting, researching, and evaluating further makes sense.
In our case, with 2 miles of non-maintained road just to get to the county gravel, to get 2 more miles to the 5 miles of pavement leading into town, at a time of year when winter storms, and even early blizzards, can occur, we just feel it is prudent to have our votes in for certain.
Oh no doubt you are informed. I just always go on election day I don’t trust the mail ballots. I have noticed though people voting early and I just did not understand why the push for it. My polling place is 1 block from my house.
Thanks for the detailed info. I confess Ohio has me worried. I’m confident in Romney’s chances in NC, as well as VA and Florida. But Ohio...I dunno. The thing is, all those GM and other autoworkers who probably lean Obama because of the bailout. I do think Romney can take Ohio, and that it is already closer than the 8 point lead a lot of polls are claiming. I just wish it wasn’t such a crucial part of his path to 270, y’know?
Not mailed; in person, in a booth at the county courthouse, and dropped into a ballot box.
OTOH, like you, people close to the polls don’t have much reason for it. When we lived in towns or cities, we just waited and went, too.
In Mochelle’s case, though, it’s imperative to push get those votes in as fast as they can drive them there to register AND vote, or else they’ll “forget” to vote entirely.
What I don’t understand is the last minute registration bit.
Stockholm Syndrome appears to be permanent there.
Wasn’t statewide deficit 206k? good analysis of cuyahoga.
2.94 million to 2.68 million
“In Mochelle’s case, though, it’s imperative to push get those votes in as fast as they can drive them there to register AND vote, or else they’ll “forget” to vote entirely.”
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A very good point, the attention span of many rat voters is approximately equal to the time between first and second place finishers in an Olympic swimming event or a good horse race.
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