Posted on 10/05/2012 11:38:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
But don’t worry, Obama’s bogus unemployment figures will fix it for him.
All of this analysis started right here at Free Republic.
Hey, if you don’t have a job, you don’t have a job.
No amount of data from the BLS is going to change that.
I don’t know...
I think it will have the opposite effect because people know the numbers are being manipulated.
The ones that will try to defend them as true aren’t changing their vote anyway.
This confirms the wipeout I see coming.
I like this independent confirmation of what FReepers like LS and Ravi have been seeing as trneding on the absentee ballot request spreadsheet being for the past few weeks.
Unexpected.
If Mitt wins Ohio He may very well run the table of battleground states and then some. I would guess that Mitt should win all states that G W Bush won in 2004 with the addition of Wisconsin. Michigan and or Pennsylvania would make it a blow out.
Obama is going to lose this election.
I hope that, even now, Romney/Ryan have a protocol for how they’l deal with the Liberals’ challenges to the victory. Because you KNOW, the Liberals WILL claim THEY won!!
Bogus Polls Ping
I saw an electoral vote map a few days ago that was very revealing. It showed obama way ahead, but it detailed by state and showed which way the state went in the last three elections.
If one took only the states that went for obama in the last election, but for the R in the previous two and adds the states that went R for all three, Romney will win with ~290 electoral votes.
When I saw that, I stopped worrying. I care not what the poll de-jure says. Romney will win.
Reading between the lines, this confirms that the DemocRAT/Ubama criminal-complex stole the 2008 election.
We live in Cleveland. There are very few Obama yard signs or bumper stickers, at least on the West side. Very different than 08.
My worry is the time between November 7 and January 21 if R/R win. Obama and his delusional supporters are not likely to take the high road.
Va.Ohio, Florida and NC are not battlegrounds right now. We can move onto Pa, Wis, Michigan, NM,NV those are the battlegrounds.
I was driving around in Missoula, Montana yesterday.
It is the home of the University of Montana and kinda liberal. In 2008, every car and breast had an Obama/Biden sticker on it.
Yesterday there were none.
Does ANYBODY outside the employee parking lot at the West Wing believe the voracity of these UE numbers they are Orwellian.
Ravi -
What does this methodology predict for out of sample data? Using this method to predict 2008 with averages through 2004 and registration from 2008, it underestimates Obama’s 2008 vote by 7% and overestimates McCain’s by 22%.
There is a lot of variance in the Cuyahoga registration numbers and in the percent of independents captured by the respective parties. The standard deviation in registration numbers for Dems is 26% of the mean, for R’s it’s 19% of the mean, and I’s its 24% of the mean. For the % of Independents captured, the standard deviation for dems is 9% of the mean and for R’s its 14% of the mean.
I’m not a statistician, but I don’t think this model has any meaningful predictions to make since the numbers it’s based on are themselves highly variable due to factors not used by the model, like’s what’s happening in the world and whether the candidate is good or terrible. Extrapolating such a weak model from one county over the entire state makes even less sense.
Any competent statisticians or modelers out there care to comment?
Although I do not expect any disturbances, you are in good shape with a Republican governor and a National Guard.
I live in Chicago, although away from the ghetto areas, and I don’t foresee any real problems even with the dumbest of dumbassed RAT governors.
The only fear of riots would be over an announcement to come somewhere for some freebe and have them run out.
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