Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
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No, he real danger to the Republican party is that they have become a bunch of whimps afraid to stand on pricipal because it might offend someone and loose them the 2% margin they won their last election on.
That is what was encouraging about Romney - not that he gave offense because he was pretty civil, but that he took control of his agenda, didn't let someone else control it for him, and didn't worry about the fact that someone might not like the fact that they (Lehrer, Obama) were not able to set his agenda for him.
"Never let the other side frame the issue." - Denny Crane
Yup! When Ohio turns red, you can go to bed. (Channeling the Ghost of Johnny Cochrane.)
I feel cautiously optimistic about the debate, I just hate to see others take the “...it’s Biden, he’ll screw up” approach. It’s not going to be that easy.
But now, after you have known God, or rather are known of God, how is it that you now turn again to the weak and beggarly elements, whereunto you desire again to be in bondage? Galatians 4:9
Is that the real cover? If so, holy cow.
I don't think the VP debate will move the numbers unless Ryan were to lose so badly as to make people worry about his capacity to succeed Romney if necessary. The Democrats are hoping Biden plays Lloyd Benson and Ryan imitates Dan Quayle. That did not lead to a Dukakis victory.
"Nevertheless, the Bush-Quayle ticket defeated Dukakis-Bentsen in the presidential election by a margin of 8% of the popular vote and an electoral landslide, with the Democrats winning only ten states, and Bentsen's influence, while memorable, failed to deliver even his native Texas, let alone the several Southern states Dukakis had hoped."
People lying to pollsters and reluctant Republicans (one whose spouse is a strong Republican).
I disagree. Obama will win some states by overwhelming margins and so will Romney. If they win those states by a few thousand more, it makes no difference but if those votes happen to come in a swing state, they make a big difference.
Honestly, I worry that even if Romney wins a few swing states by narrow margins, the Dems will use all of their recall tricks to steal it and the presidency.
Since Rasmussen is a 3-day rolling average, the Rasmussen figures today probably had little input from the BLS numbers. Though nominally, on Sunday all those polled will have had the benefit of the debate, I believe the debate will not be “all cooked in” until Wednesday’s numbers (including the weekend’s “analysis”).
I think that since the analysis (by the voters) of the BLS figures will be less complex, I believe that by Monday or Tues the total effect of the employment numbers will be in.
Suddenly, in the last few days here in Central NY State, signs have been popping up. Quite a few for Romney/Ryan - I believe more than for Obama and his confederates, but I don’t know for sure about that.
The sign I like MOST, though, is one that is sprouting and spreading:
2012: Obama vs. America
That is very true. I am quite surprised that some of those organizations that took polls early last week, just before the debate, did not release a follow-up poll two days after the debate, just for comparison.
It does indeed beg the question as to whether any of them did such a poll and are not releasing it.
Actually, I suspect that even more people will be watching the second debate of these two. I do agree that Mitt answered a lot of the concerns of over 60Million folks, but they will be telling their friends who didn’t see it the first time.
I will be watching myself (and I hate those things) just to see how each of them fare, though I know my vote won’t change.
Then, if Obama is not slaughtered, I think that there will be just as many watching the third, though I don’t think there will be many minds changed by it. If he is slaughtered, the viewership for that will be only the ambulance chasers who love blood and gore, and if Zero does well then, it won’t have much effect anyway. If he does mediocre to poor, there will be a bandwagon effect for Mitt.
I think this year all the debates are going to matter a lot.
Here in Central NYState, the Green Party candidate is now making a big push for votes. Sounding as radical as the Libertarians, but with a super-anti-Democrat party as well as anti-GOP. They are the 99% slogan chanters, and marchers. Heck, I was in Ithaca today, and even saw an anti-war protest! They quite likely vote for the “green”.
I don’t know how many outside the liberal universities and such will vote for the Greens, but there are quite a few of those dolts who could care less that Obama will get a vote less even if their Greenie has not been heard of by 98%.
“It really is an unspeakable tragedy - to see what the so-called “caring” liberals have done to our black people”
I love the way you stated this post. I DO think there is getting to be that “critical mass” of Black speakers now on New Media - not only those you mentioned, but callers to the talk shows, etc., and people like Jackson have lost some of their power.
I don’t think that there is even a good guess as to the electoral vote right now. We really need at least 3 marginally “reliable” polls from each state to get any read at all.
The only poll worth looking at right now is the national.
Specifically, I think the most accurate way to get a handle on the electoral college would be to take the state-by-state polls, and in each state adjust by as straight percentage change in the national polls since the debate. Not great way, but better than anything else out there right now. By the end of the coming week, that method will probably not be needed, though.
Here in Central NYState, there are many of the Dems who are not enchanted with Obama who will be voting for the silly “Green” candidate - guaranteed.
I am part of the 91% who hang up as soon as I hear “pollster” or detect that from the questioning. When I DO decide to take my time to answer, I NEVER give honest answers to approximately half the questions, both the demographic questions and the “money” questions. No sense answering them all opposite - that won’t screw up the pollster or their cross tabs.
Much better to say, “I’m black... I’m making 200,000+ ... the economy stinks ... I’m voting for the green party... I consider myself moderate or conservative... most important issue is the deficit ... but registered Democrat... I agree with the Afghan war... country is going in the right direction”. I have been doing this for at least 15 years.
I imagine when I get done, if they wanted to spend a lot of time correlating unlikely honest responses, they could figure out a way to toss me out, but it costs a heckova lot of programmer power to figure out how to do that, and they will not. And yet, that type of responder is NOT part of their “Margin of Error” calculations. They assume all responders are honest, and their “MOE” is based on simple statistics of sampling errors, not liars.
I hate polls. Always have. Always will. Really want to screw them up if I am going to take up my time with them.
The townhall format will be much easier on Obama since there will be multitudes of questions from the idiot undecideds... Lehrer more or less let the debate flow Lincoln Douglas style... Not going to happen in a town hall
Jan'09 Now Gas $1.85 $5.50 Foodstamps 32Mil. 47Mil. Family Income $55,198 $50,678 Four more years? Really???
There are some weird numbers in there.
1- Blacks are more concerned about National Security than Whites? Not likely.
2- The economy is of more concern with “other” (Independents) than either R or Ds.
3- 15% of Blacks are voting for Romney. Lord Almighty let it be so.
His latest party ID breakdown for Sept. was R+2.6 and there were 29% Indies. Not sure why he weighted D’s so high in this poll unless they really started to surge in the end of September ?