Skip to comments.Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead (Pew Poll: R 49%, 0 45%)
Posted on 10/08/2012 1:14:56 PM PDT by Arthurio
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Centers presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.
Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesdays debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.
In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romneys backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
holy smokes. Is Pew going to be the first pollster taking truth serum?
In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.
This is great because now Obama and Biden will overcompensate in next debates and appear even worse.
R&R need to stay on message, present data and facts, and smile alot.
Be optimistic in the face of Dem attacks.
A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.
Apparently, those 26% thought they were watching Sesame Street, and were worried that Romney killed Big Bird.
Exactly..Romney and Ryan just have to be calm and keep on talking about the facts..Obama and his minions will keep calling them both liars but it won’t matter. Obama is coming off as petty and pathetic, meanwhile Romney looks calm. Everyone just go out and vote on Election Day, pretend Romney is down 10 and he needs every single vote, because even if Romney has the lead he needs the votes to combat the obvious voter fraud which WILL take place on Election Day, its all the Dems have left
I agree with you.
If Romney and Ryan stay the same and keep the same strategy that won the last debate, Obama and Biden are going to over-compensate and get nasty.
Americans hate nastiness and desperation.
But liberals have no discipline and can’t help themselves, which is why you saw the liberal media go into full meltdown mode.
As usual... UNEXPECTEDLY...
My, Obama’s corruption has both the mediocre mediacrat mediacracy and the corrupt government govermental mental case studies wrapped around his fingers of stupidity.
By contrast, about as many Democratic voters say the debate was confusing (41%) as say it was informative (47%).
OK, this is starting to sound like a script for a sitcom.
Nearly half of Democrats thought the debate was "confusing". What was the confusing part? The part where their Messiah got his ass handed to him, and they didn't understand how that could happen?
Or was it the part where he stuttered through his answers, studied his shoes, and pleaded with the moderator to bail him out?
Or maybe it was the end when the one that really wears the pants in the first family came out and led him off-stage like a misbehaving child.
I guess when you are so heavily invested in a cult of personality, it is shocking to find out your anointed really IS an empty suit.
If you can early vote, do so, then volunteer to poll judge. They always need Republicans n big cities and they pay you. You also can require a provisional ballot where so often they just let people vote.
I have scene it happen!
Don’t count them out, plus the pollsters are STILL in Obumbler’s corner! TRUST nothing but with everything verify with own eye! These evil bastards will do anything to prop up their wooden Opuppet!! Hell, did you hear WHAT he said at the MULTI billionaires fund raiser in HELLywood?? The bastard thinks the presidency is a freakin ACT?? OMG, OH BOY, IF Romney doesn’t use that DELICIOUS Obumbler gaffe in an ad...THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING....Wake up Romney’s team...FREE GIFT..USE IT!!
Sounds like they`re setting us up for another big D oversample poll next month to show the “amazing” 0bama comeback. It stinks out loud to me.
Told you...TRUST NOTHING from these liberal Obumbler butt kissers!!
Why should anyone care about Registered vs Likely? It only serves to promote the Bias of the media when the Headline should say Romney takes the lead. He has to be up double digits to get this result.
Pray for America
Of course it stinks.... its from Pew! Sorry....couldn’t help myself.
Pew and Rassmusen were the two most accurate pollsters in 2008.
If it was...I suppose it means they don't weight their sample to any turn out model, but just place great faith in the randomness of their sampling methods...which seems a rather reckless assumption to me.
Either way, I am dubious of this poll, though I do think Romney will win and it will not be particularly close.
R +2.75 (Dem 32.5, Rep 35.25, Ind 29.5). But, hey, Gallup says Party ID is not relevant.
In rounds two and three Myth will be wrung out like a shamwell.. There will be so many convoluted lies and half-truths even Myth Romney will not be able to absorb them all..
How many times can you say “Thats not true?”.. before it looks like an EXCUSE.. and a skimpy one at that.. Most of the Townhall audience and half of the TV audience could care less about facts.. They wouldn’t know a fact if they tripped over it.. anyway..
Is America that dumb?.. YES.. mostly the ones under thirty years old.. but many 40 and 50 year olds are droolers as well..
LOL a “slight” four point lead among the likeliest voters.
Huge lead late in the game. This is playing out as it should. Country sick of Obama, needed to see if Romnney is a viable alternative.
Seems unlikely Obama will win a debate by the wide margin Romney earned. I do wonder how the Ryan-Biden thing will come out. Should be facinating.
Yeah, but this is the split we are seeing in the OH early voting numbers. Probably the same in FL.
RE: R +2.75
Now they’re changing the sampling. For the longest time Pew have Democrats with the sampling advantage. Why the sudden change?
As Clint noted, the Empty Chair improved by codetoad:
ROMNEY LOST THE DEBATE! OBAMA IS IN CONTROL!
It is past time to fire Barack, his empty chair and empty promises and have all of them hit the road back to Chicago!
So hit the road Barack and take your empty chair, empty suit and empty promises with you!
Better take Wolf Blitzer’s tie and belt away from him before he says “goodbye, cruel world.”
Is Pew preparing for Obama’s next big comeback poll?
I dont trust ANY Poll, except for Rasmussen..just pretend Romney is down 10 and he needs every vote, because he will, the voter fraud on Election Day is going to be insane. Just like how Chavez won last night, the Dems will send out SEIU to “count” the votes
That’s almost the exact party id split that Rasmussen has (2.6) - but is oddly using D+3 in his polls.
He must figure inner-city voter fraud in swing states is worth a good 5 1/2% for Democrats—and he’s probably right.
If any “undecided” women were still watching at the end when Romney hugged the first of his sons that went up on the stage, they turned. My wife was ecstatic when she saw that.
The contrast between the Romney family on the stage and the sourpuss on the face of Mrs. Obama was stunning
This makes much more sense. Rasmussen’s tie, wiping out Romney’s 2 pt advantage, makes no sense at all.
Bull crap. HOW MANY DEMOCRATS were oversampled to get Romney to a mere 4% lead? HOW MANY?
There was an article -- by a pollster -- posted on Free Republic a few days ago.
He explained that pollsters do NOT weight for party ID. However, they do weight for the usual demographics -- race, gender, income, age, education, etc. And that, for some reason, the demographic weighting is inflating the number of white Democrats in the sample.
Presumably, that is a function of it becoming increasingly difficult to poll white Republicans -- who are more likely to be unresponsive to unknown callers.
Unlike 0bama, I think Romney would know how to pick the battle: he’s not going to say “It’s not true” at every lie that 0bama says. In any case, if he simply provides the correct facts, it won’t be easy for 0bama to keep the lies.
That's gonna leave a mark.
A 12 Point Swing?
0bama will be lucky to hold at 45%. I continue to predict a 45% / 55% outcome, as I have since early August, I think. All those preliminary polls were fixed, and at the end of the day, Americans will enter the polling booth asking themselves one question: Do I want four more years of THIS? And the answer will be "NO!"
My personal opinion is that Rasmussen is hedging his bets.
His party id split is R+2.6. But his polling sample is D+3. That’s a 6 point swing.
In the past he has always stayed close to the his party affiliation. In 2008 for example it was D+6 and he used D+6 sample - and he was pretty much dead on.
Back to opinion... I think he is being conservative, and will change sample as election gets closer, probably D+1-2.
Meanwhile everyone else (other than this Pew) is using D+3-6 and so Rasmussen will be the closest again. (He doesn’t want to go out too far on limb).
Romney is going to win by 4-6 points, IMO.
I predict that both will go into the Shmuck Mode.
Romney likely ALWAYS had the lead. It's just that now the pollsters have to worry about their reputations.
The only confusing part of the debate was trying to figure out what King Barry was trying to say.
I sure hope you’re right.
In 2004 men were 46.5% of vote while women were 53.5.
Here it is men 44% and women 56.
Me thinks a blowout is on the way.
Obama can still win if Romney screws up.
Pew used a rigorous likely voter screen this time: they asked 7 different questions. They are also predicting high turnout, around 64%. I think R+3 is realistic, because it jives with Rasmussen’s Party Identification which showed R+2.6 for September.