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Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead (Pew Poll: R 49%, 0 45%)
Pew ^

Posted on 10/08/2012 1:14:56 PM PDT by Arthurio

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; pew; taqiyya0bama; taqiyyataqiyya
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1 posted on 10/08/2012 1:15:07 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
@NolteNC: Romney takes 4 point lead in CNN poll: 49 - 45. Wow. // How big is the D oversample? John Nolte ‏@NolteNC CNN/Pew skew is R +5. Was D+10. 15 point swing. You buying it Just go vote!!! I dont care what the polls say just go out and vote so we can throw this Kenyan Marxist out on his ass
2 posted on 10/08/2012 1:18:19 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Arthurio

holy smokes. Is Pew going to be the first pollster taking truth serum?


3 posted on 10/08/2012 1:18:35 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Arthurio
Pew's weak headline buries stunning news in the poll. Romney has wiped out the 'gender gap' with his strong debate performance:

In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.

4 posted on 10/08/2012 1:19:53 PM PDT by kristinn (Dump the Chump in 2012)
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To: Arthurio

This is great because now Obama and Biden will overcompensate in next debates and appear even worse.

R&R need to stay on message, present data and facts, and smile alot.

Be optimistic in the face of Dem attacks.


5 posted on 10/08/2012 1:20:25 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: Arthurio
This is my favorite part of the article:

A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

Apparently, those 26% thought they were watching Sesame Street, and were worried that Romney killed Big Bird.

6 posted on 10/08/2012 1:22:59 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: Col Frank Slade

Exactly..Romney and Ryan just have to be calm and keep on talking about the facts..Obama and his minions will keep calling them both liars but it won’t matter. Obama is coming off as petty and pathetic, meanwhile Romney looks calm. Everyone just go out and vote on Election Day, pretend Romney is down 10 and he needs every single vote, because even if Romney has the lead he needs the votes to combat the obvious voter fraud which WILL take place on Election Day, its all the Dems have left


7 posted on 10/08/2012 1:23:42 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Col Frank Slade

I agree with you.

If Romney and Ryan stay the same and keep the same strategy that won the last debate, Obama and Biden are going to over-compensate and get nasty.

Americans hate nastiness and desperation.

But liberals have no discipline and can’t help themselves, which is why you saw the liberal media go into full meltdown mode.


8 posted on 10/08/2012 1:24:02 PM PDT by radpolis (Liberals: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy)
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To: ConservativeDude

Ask Rasmussen.


9 posted on 10/08/2012 1:24:39 PM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: Arthurio

10 posted on 10/08/2012 1:25:02 PM PDT by Slyfox
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To: Arthurio

As usual... UNEXPECTEDLY...

My, Obama’s corruption has both the mediocre mediacrat mediacracy and the corrupt government govermental mental case studies wrapped around his fingers of stupidity.


11 posted on 10/08/2012 1:29:36 PM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: Arthurio
It gets better later in the article:

By contrast, about as many Democratic voters say the debate was confusing (41%) as say it was informative (47%).

OK, this is starting to sound like a script for a sitcom.

Nearly half of Democrats thought the debate was "confusing". What was the confusing part? The part where their Messiah got his ass handed to him, and they didn't understand how that could happen?

Or was it the part where he stuttered through his answers, studied his shoes, and pleaded with the moderator to bail him out?

Or maybe it was the end when the one that really wears the pants in the first family came out and led him off-stage like a misbehaving child.

I guess when you are so heavily invested in a cult of personality, it is shocking to find out your anointed really IS an empty suit.

12 posted on 10/08/2012 1:31:03 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: Sarah Barracuda
I already voted! I stopped first day in OHIO downtown Cleveland and voted. I feel great.

If you can early vote, do so, then volunteer to poll judge. They always need Republicans n big cities and they pay you. You also can require a provisional ballot where so often they just let people vote.

I have scene it happen!

13 posted on 10/08/2012 1:31:14 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Col Frank Slade

Don’t count them out, plus the pollsters are STILL in Obumbler’s corner! TRUST nothing but with everything verify with own eye! These evil bastards will do anything to prop up their wooden Opuppet!! Hell, did you hear WHAT he said at the MULTI billionaires fund raiser in HELLywood?? The bastard thinks the presidency is a freakin ACT?? OMG, OH BOY, IF Romney doesn’t use that DELICIOUS Obumbler gaffe in an ad...THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING....Wake up Romney’s team...FREE GIFT..USE IT!!


14 posted on 10/08/2012 1:32:20 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Sarah Barracuda

R+5???

Sounds like they`re setting us up for another big D oversample poll next month to show the “amazing” 0bama comeback. It stinks out loud to me.


15 posted on 10/08/2012 1:34:01 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: ScottinVA

Told you...TRUST NOTHING from these liberal Obumbler butt kissers!!


16 posted on 10/08/2012 1:36:19 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Arthurio

Why should anyone care about Registered vs Likely? It only serves to promote the Bias of the media when the Headline should say Romney takes the lead. He has to be up double digits to get this result.

Pray for America


17 posted on 10/08/2012 1:38:02 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: ScottinVA

Of course it stinks.... its from Pew! Sorry....couldn’t help myself.


18 posted on 10/08/2012 1:39:10 PM PDT by Heff (Half this country is that stupid.)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: Arthurio

Pew and Rassmusen were the two most accurate pollsters in 2008.


20 posted on 10/08/2012 1:39:26 PM PDT by muleskinner
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To: Sarah Barracuda
Did Pew publish the internals? How do we know it was really D+10 before and R+5 now?

If it was...I suppose it means they don't weight their sample to any turn out model, but just place great faith in the randomness of their sampling methods...which seems a rather reckless assumption to me.

Either way, I am dubious of this poll, though I do think Romney will win and it will not be particularly close.

21 posted on 10/08/2012 1:39:34 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: Arthurio

22 posted on 10/08/2012 1:40:24 PM PDT by markomalley (Nothing emboldens the wicked so greatly as the lack of courage on the part of the good -- Leo XIII)
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To: Sarah Barracuda; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

R +2.75 (Dem 32.5, Rep 35.25, Ind 29.5). But, hey, Gallup says Party ID is not relevant.


23 posted on 10/08/2012 1:41:36 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Arthurio

In rounds two and three Myth will be wrung out like a shamwell.. There will be so many convoluted lies and half-truths even Myth Romney will not be able to absorb them all..

How many times can you say “Thats not true?”.. before it looks like an EXCUSE.. and a skimpy one at that.. Most of the Townhall audience and half of the TV audience could care less about facts.. They wouldn’t know a fact if they tripped over it.. anyway..

Is America that dumb?.. YES.. mostly the ones under thirty years old.. but many 40 and 50 year olds are droolers as well..


24 posted on 10/08/2012 1:41:44 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: Arthurio

LOL a “slight” four point lead among the likeliest voters.

Huge lead late in the game. This is playing out as it should. Country sick of Obama, needed to see if Romnney is a viable alternative.

Seems unlikely Obama will win a debate by the wide margin Romney earned. I do wonder how the Ryan-Biden thing will come out. Should be facinating.


25 posted on 10/08/2012 1:44:40 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Perdogg

Yeah, but this is the split we are seeing in the OH early voting numbers. Probably the same in FL.


26 posted on 10/08/2012 1:45:37 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Perdogg

RE: R +2.75

Now they’re changing the sampling. For the longest time Pew have Democrats with the sampling advantage. Why the sudden change?


27 posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: Arthurio
Lord Obozo as the head of the Chicago Mob controlling America is not a nice guy nor a smart guy. He is an equal opportunity Oreo thug in a job, he should not be in!

Barack Obama has been savaged over his performance in last Wednesday night‘s presidential debate, with one commentator even suggesting that he was less effective than the hapless Jimmy Carter.

As Clint noted, the Empty Chair improved by codetoad:

ROMNEY LOST THE DEBATE! OBAMA IS IN CONTROL!


It is past time to fire Barack, his empty chair and empty promises and have all of them hit the road back to Chicago!

So hit the road Barack and take your empty chair, empty suit and empty promises with you!


28 posted on 10/08/2012 1:52:45 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: Arthurio

Better take Wolf Blitzer’s tie and belt away from him before he says “goodbye, cruel world.”


29 posted on 10/08/2012 1:53:02 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Is Pew preparing for Obama’s next big comeback poll?


30 posted on 10/08/2012 1:53:32 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

I dont trust ANY Poll, except for Rasmussen..just pretend Romney is down 10 and he needs every vote, because he will, the voter fraud on Election Day is going to be insane. Just like how Chavez won last night, the Dems will send out SEIU to “count” the votes


31 posted on 10/08/2012 1:56:38 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: SeekAndFind

That’s almost the exact party id split that Rasmussen has (2.6) - but is oddly using D+3 in his polls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


32 posted on 10/08/2012 1:56:44 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

He must figure inner-city voter fraud in swing states is worth a good 5 1/2% for Democrats—and he’s probably right.


33 posted on 10/08/2012 1:59:06 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: justlurking

If any “undecided” women were still watching at the end when Romney hugged the first of his sons that went up on the stage, they turned. My wife was ecstatic when she saw that.

The contrast between the Romney family on the stage and the sourpuss on the face of Mrs. Obama was stunning


34 posted on 10/08/2012 2:03:29 PM PDT by pie_eater
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To: Arthurio

This makes much more sense. Rasmussen’s tie, wiping out Romney’s 2 pt advantage, makes no sense at all.


35 posted on 10/08/2012 2:06:18 PM PDT by Proudcongal
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To: Arthurio

Bull crap. HOW MANY DEMOCRATS were oversampled to get Romney to a mere 4% lead? HOW MANY?


36 posted on 10/08/2012 2:06:37 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: nhwingut
That’s almost the exact party id split that Rasmussen has (2.6) - but is oddly using D+3 in his polls.

There was an article -- by a pollster -- posted on Free Republic a few days ago.

He explained that pollsters do NOT weight for party ID. However, they do weight for the usual demographics -- race, gender, income, age, education, etc. And that, for some reason, the demographic weighting is inflating the number of white Democrats in the sample.

Presumably, that is a function of it becoming increasingly difficult to poll white Republicans -- who are more likely to be unresponsive to unknown callers.

37 posted on 10/08/2012 2:06:58 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: hosepipe

Unlike 0bama, I think Romney would know how to pick the battle: he’s not going to say “It’s not true” at every lie that 0bama says. In any case, if he simply provides the correct facts, it won’t be easy for 0bama to keep the lies.


38 posted on 10/08/2012 2:09:29 PM PDT by paudio (Post-racial society: When we can legitimately hire and fire a Black man without feeling guilty.)
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To: Arthurio
"Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month."

That's gonna leave a mark.

A 12 Point Swing?

0bama will be lucky to hold at 45%. I continue to predict a 45% / 55% outcome, as I have since early August, I think. All those preliminary polls were fixed, and at the end of the day, Americans will enter the polling booth asking themselves one question: Do I want four more years of THIS? And the answer will be "NO!"

39 posted on 10/08/2012 2:10:56 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: 9YearLurker

My personal opinion is that Rasmussen is hedging his bets.

His party id split is R+2.6. But his polling sample is D+3. That’s a 6 point swing.

In the past he has always stayed close to the his party affiliation. In 2008 for example it was D+6 and he used D+6 sample - and he was pretty much dead on.

Back to opinion... I think he is being conservative, and will change sample as election gets closer, probably D+1-2.

Meanwhile everyone else (other than this Pew) is using D+3-6 and so Rasmussen will be the closest again. (He doesn’t want to go out too far on limb).

Romney is going to win by 4-6 points, IMO.


40 posted on 10/08/2012 2:11:39 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: kristinn
"Pew's weak headline buries stunning news in the poll. Romney has wiped out the 'gender gap' with his strong debate performance:"

Even worse than the erasure of the gender gap is the fact that PEW used 44% men in the survey and 56% women. I find it hard to believe that women will vote that much more than men.....
41 posted on 10/08/2012 2:18:30 PM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: Col Frank Slade; bcsco; Charles Henrickson
This is great because now Obama and Biden will overcompensate in next debates and appear even worse.

I predict that both will go into the Shmuck Mode.

42 posted on 10/08/2012 2:19:30 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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IS THAT A GUN IN YOUR POCKET


OR ARE YOU JUST GLAD TO SEE ME?




43 posted on 10/08/2012 2:24:27 PM PDT by devolve (----- ------- ------------c.1000_and_c.1620-------- ----------------------------)
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To: Arthurio
Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

Romney likely ALWAYS had the lead. It's just that now the pollsters have to worry about their reputations.

44 posted on 10/08/2012 2:25:55 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: Arthurio

The only confusing part of the debate was trying to figure out what King Barry was trying to say.


45 posted on 10/08/2012 2:29:13 PM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: nhwingut

I sure hope you’re right.


46 posted on 10/08/2012 2:29:39 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: AdamBomb

In 2004 men were 46.5% of vote while women were 53.5.

Here it is men 44% and women 56.

Me thinks a blowout is on the way.


47 posted on 10/08/2012 2:31:03 PM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: Arthurio

Bump...


48 posted on 10/08/2012 2:33:40 PM PDT by bayliving (I suffer from democrat induced tourette syndrome...)
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To: Arthurio

Obama can still win if Romney screws up.


49 posted on 10/08/2012 2:35:37 PM PDT by yield 2 the right (2012, the election year that stinks!)
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To: Perdogg

Pew used a rigorous likely voter screen this time: they asked 7 different questions. They are also predicting high turnout, around 64%. I think R+3 is realistic, because it jives with Rasmussen’s Party Identification which showed R+2.6 for September.


50 posted on 10/08/2012 2:55:11 PM PDT by paglia444
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