Basically, the second debate between Obama and Romney becomes a critical episode. The President has to seem aggressive but he likely will be perceived as a poor debater in the process, and still lose more support. I think the election will be mostly over at the end of that debate. There’s not much of a reason for a third debate...it’d just cut into the President’s numbers even more.
A townhall debate style is really hard to do much of anything except appear like a nice guy. Its not set up for a real ass kicking on either side unless there is a major flub.
Every time either candidate is on the TV something can happen (a “spinnable event”, so to speak); Romney has to keep his guard up, even going so far as preparing for Obama to ask HIM for his birth certificate.
Until 1945 many average Germans still thought the war could be won (and fought accordingly); the media will be waiting until the last polls close on Election Day to stick it to Romney...