My understanding is that some of the polls have switched from registered voters to likely voters as the election nears, and it is making a substantial difference.
Don't know if Pew is one.
I think Romney beats Obama in sort of a flip of Obama v McCain.
He will take back FL, NC, Indiana and Virginia. Win Ohio, Colorado and Nevada, and might sneak a win in Iowa and/or Wisconsin.
Maybe if things really go right Romney could get NH, Mich or PA...though I doubt it.
I don’t even think a Reagan EC blowout is possible for either side the way the country is divided.