OH Absentee Update (Wow: Numbers get better!)

George Mason University Early Voting Project ^ | 10/10/2012 | George Mason University

[LS]

Here are the lastest #s from OH

Astabula Co: Dems +1 (100 vote diff)

Carroll: Dems +1 (100 vote diff)

Champaign: Rs 3:1, up 20 points over 08

Clark: Rs up, 19-point swing from 08

Columbiana: Rs lost 08 by 6,000 votes, now up 400, and Rs have 3/4 of all 2008 vote numbers in already (18 point swing)

Cuyahoga: Rs doing 6 points better than 08 was 52-15, now 53-22). Total Ds down 10k from 08, Rs up 11k

Franklin: was 18-15 D in 08, now 19-16 R (up 5,000 votes for 6-point swing)

Greene: Ds won in 08 33-29, now R 33-14 (22 point swing)

Hamilton: was 5% R lead in 08, now 11%; R ballots almost already at 08 levels

Lake: Rs up 1 point over 08

Licking: Rs up 15 points over 08

Lucas: Ds won 3:1 in 08, now not even 2:1

Montgomery: (very important D county) BIG gains for Rs---in 08, the margin was 3:1 by 22,000 ballots. Today? only 2500 diff!!

Muskingham: tie in 08, now Rs up big (2.3:1)

Pickaway: Ds won by 1000 votes in 08, Rs now up 2:1

Portage: Rs already at almost 08 levels---5 points ahead of 08 spread

Seneca: Rs gained 11 points

Starke: Rs 10 point gain

Summit In 08 Rs lost 3;1, now within 200 votes for a 10-point swing

Trumbull: 15-point R gain

Tuscarawas: was 2:1 D in 08, now Rs up 3% (a 27-point shift)

Wood: 9% D win in 08, now tied

[LS]

I did not include counties in which there were no updates from 10/8, or counties that had no 08 data to compare with (very few really important counties), or counties that had no real change. But if you notice, these are the biggies, esp. Montgomery, Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and Franklin. The trends are overwhelmingly in the direction of a seismic flip in the direction of Rs.

[arrogantsob]

Thanks for reporting the good news.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

Nobody can predict the future. Still, we all try. I will tell you, though, that if Romnoid takes Ohio, we will be talking about a near-Mondale-grade crushing of 0bama.

[LS]

About predicting, yes and no. True political experts like Michael Barone can tell you from two or three precincts in two or three counties who will win an election if he knows the vote in those districts.

If, when absentee/early voting is over, Obama has not won Hamilton and Franklin counties and doesn't have at least a 30-point edge in Cuyahoga, yes, I can predict the future. That's a Romney win.

[mrs9x]

When is the absentee ballot cutoff?

Also, when does in-person early voting start?

[GilGil]

Romney will win the election 55-45. ‘Fraid so!

[thingumbob]

Wow!!!.....You could probably put Summit in there too...what a swing in that county too.

Thanks for continuing to watch this...

Gotta go pass on the good news to my family and friends in Ohio now.

[thingumbob]

According to the board of elections website for the state an Absentee ballot can be requested up until 12 noon on the Saturday before the election. It must be turned in by 7:30pm on election day to be counted.

Early in-person voting has already started......

[Recon Dad]

Thank you for your on going information.

It is evident the country’s 3 plus years “of our veil of tears” is almost gone.

[tatown]

Nice!

Can I still ‘roll it and smoke it’ as to the accuracy? Lol :0)

[thingumbob]

If you have Picture in Picture, PIP, you might want to line up your channels now.....the media meltdown is going to be ...

How to the kids say it?......

EPIC!

[mrs9x]

Will we have any statistics on the early voting, such as the party ID of those who have voted?

[mrs9x]

What I meant to ask is whether we will have statistics on the party ID of those who vote early in person.

[Red Steel]

Romney will win the election 55-45. ‘Fraid so!

That's my prediction since sometime last month.

[American Constitutionalist]

Pop Corn Epic Meltdown......

A history lesson to learn: HOW NOT TO GOVERN and report the news...

" COOL ! "

[thingumbob]

What I meant to ask is whether we will have statistics on the party ID of those who vote early in person.

I can't anwser that one.....I am no longer in state and to be honest I think this might be the first time Ohio has done early voting. I don't remember ever having the opportunity to do this in all the years I lived there.

So, I'm pinging LS and Ravi with this reply to you. They're both doing a lot of heavy lifting on this info and they might be able to answer your question.

[BuckeyeGOP]

If cable channels were smart, they’d make MSNBC pay-per-view on election night.

[thingumbob]

You got that right!

[thingumbob]

LOL.....

Might even break even with the budget that night too....

[Ravi]

Early voting is considered a part of absentee voting in OH only. It is separate in other states but for some reason they lump it together with absentee voting in OH. Don’t know why. Great job LS btw.