Posted on 10/10/2012 5:40:11 PM PDT by smoothsailing
PA poll ping!
Great billboard.
Also deadly accurate.
PA Ping!
If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!
This is extremely rough mental math. I don’t know the internal numbers on these polls, but if we assume 30 percent of the electorate in Pennsylvania are independent, then look what happens. We know that 72 percent of independent voters in this poll are already committed, 36 for Obama and 36 for Romney. That leaves roughly 28 percent who would be classified as undecided and independent. I’ll round down just to make things easy, so we will that 25 percent of independent voters are still undecided. If independent voters are 30 percent of the overall PA electorate, that means about 7.5 percent of the electorate is independent and undecided. If those people break two to one for Romney, that adds a little over 5 points to Romney’s total, and roughly 2.5 points to Obama’s. With Obama currently up by 2 points, that would mean a Romney win. The larger the percentage of independents, the more Romney would presumably gain.
I agree Jaz, the Obama administration is unraveling before our eyes.
Before this is over with, Romney could sweep who knows how many states and we could get a Senate Republican majority.
We are certainly living in interesting times my FRiend!
| PA Voter Registration and Party Enrollment as of June 28, 2010 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Number of Voters | Percentage | |||
| Democratic | 4,309,604 | 51.00% | |||
| Republican | 3,122,036 | 36.95% | |||
| Unaffiliated | 492,077 | 5.82% | |||
| Minor Parties | 525,962 | 6.22% | |||
| Total | 8,449,679 | 100% | |||
Wake up people.
If....if Zero and Mittens were even tied right now, that would still mean a 5% margin of victory for Zero. It’s Pennsylvania.
“In play” would require a 5 point lead in the polls for Romney. Ain’t happening.
Herr Leader is going to get 125% of the black vote.
“Herr Leader is going to get 125% of the black vote.”
Not as big of a deal as it is in many states. This is Pennsylvania....
28.5% German
18.2% Irish
12.8% Italian
9.6% African
8.5% English
7.2% Polish
4.2% French Canadian
2.9% Puerto Rican
2.2% Dutch
2.0% Slovak
2.0% Scotch Irish
1.7% Scottish
1.6% Russian
1.5% Welsh
1.2% Hungarian
1.0% West Indian
1.0% Ukrainian
1.0% Mexican
(Casey has a wide lead among self-described moderates, 51 percent to 25.)
Rush proves again that he is right that “moderates” are basically liberals.
Rush is right, no doubt about it.
Yeah, but you know what I mean about the fraud.
I hear you, but your 5% figure is too high. Romney will need about a 30,000 vote margin statewide to avoid a mandatory recount. 1/2 of 1%. If he does better than that, the Dems would pay for the challenge.
I would say a 100,000 vote margin would be real comfortable and well beyond the Dems ability to manufacture additional votes. That would be about a 50% Romney 48.5% Obama election outcome. 1.5%
2012: Obama vs. America
It captures the whole enchilada - supports conservative candidates up and down the ticket without mentioning a single one of them.
I'm wondering if that sign is anywhere else?
CBS radio editorialists (I don’t mean talk show hosts, either) are screaming to high heaven about BenghaziGate. If this does not make a mark on the Obama administration polls, I will find a hat to eat. I bet that a real collapse will happen among independents, and that a band-wagon effect is going to favor Romney in the next weeks.
I am now starting to believe that this could end up on the order of a 57-43 win for Romney.
We got screwed on Voter ID, which was the only thing that would have kept fraud down to moderate levels.
Pennsylvania will go one of two ways: if Obama is within 5 points of Romney, the Dem fraud machine will go into overdrive, and will produce just enough votes for Obama to win.
If Romney is 6 points or more ahead, they may decide not to spend the money on shill voters, and Romney will win PA in a blowout. Republicans almost NEVER win on squeakers.
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