Jay Cost: The State of the Race, Four Weeks Out

So where are we, four weeks out? Romney suddenly finds himself with a lead in the polls, making liberals panicked and conservatives jubilant -- an interesting change of pace.

But I actually see more continuity than change here. And allow me to quote one pollster who has had a solid read on the true state of the race for months (he is also the only pollster who had an accurate read on Obama-McCain from the Lehman collapse onward, and the first to see the 2010 wipeout coming before anybody else).

We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest. Still, in a close race, a modest change can have a major impact. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other.

I think this is spot on. In fact, I would suggest five enduring truths about this election, all consistent with Rasmussen’s polling data.

But make no mistake: what we have here is a very close race in an evenly divided nation. Both sides should lock down 47 percent, and it will be a fight to the finish for the tiny sliver of the electorate that is truly up for grabs.

That is an astute observation. The media overstated Obama support to keep him afloat and build his support and energy.
The ‘Obama is winning’ creates a bandwagon effect, and it was ALMOST close to becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't buy it. The reason is, while we may have a "divided electorate," IBD poll today shows Romney with a 20 (!!!!) point lead among indies. Now, folks, given R enthusiasm (which almost everyone except the bogus PPP says is higher than Ds) this translates to a 4-5% national lead, but in the electoral college this is a massive lead, because it would throw to Romney OH, IA, WI, NV, CO, VA, FL, NC, NH, and possibly MI.

That, and the fact that we expect the undecideds to break for the challenger.

Moreover, I think this so-called "close" race has been jimmied for months by the pollsters specifically to keep up the "invincible" Obama image to ensure he kept the money from business. And now that his balloon is punctured, businesses are starting to throw money at Romney.

Scary part is that some 47% of the electorate would vote to re-elect this guy. Rush said the U.S. could survive a second Obama term, but not an electorate that would re-elect him.
20 posted on October 10, 2012 10:21:50 PM EDT by MovementConservative
. . . so although there is every reason to expect a strong Romney win in the EC, we also have to be on tenterhooks about the country even with a Romney win. And lest we forget, Romney is still Mitt Romney - and we are far from out of the woods with him in the WH. It’s just that compared to Obama, Mitt Romney sounds like Ronald Reagan!

My take is similar to yours. The debate got Romney rolling, and now that the Dinosaur media are realizing that Obama et al lied to them about BenghaziGate and are turning on him due to that and his campaign’s foolish “strategy” of keeping the first debate alive with “Big Bird” ads, the bandwagon is going downhill, picking up speed. The bloom is off the rose.

I think that if Ryan&Romney simply are “even” in these next debates, it is getting to feel like we may be talking on the order of a 57-43 victory now. I know that is crazy talk right now, but that is what it is feeling like to me.

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