Skip to comments.NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Gains In Key Swing States [OH: 2/3 Early Voting for Obama?}
Posted on 10/10/2012 9:59:34 PM PDT by Steelfish
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Gains In Key Swing States By Domenico Montanaro A week after President Barack Obamas lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.
Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last weeks poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the polls margin of error.
In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.
In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governors strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. Thats a 2-point uptick for Romney.
But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last weeks poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)
One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.nbcnews.com ...
I voted yesterday in Iowa. Was surprisingly pleased with the security of the process.
One benefit of voting early: The campaigns stop calling you because they know you have already voted.
This from another forum...
“Ohio is going to be huge. Tons of Steelworkers are headed to Ohio for last minute campaigning. “
FreedomWorks has been here for a month on our side.
Party ID for Ohio in this poll
Party ID is D +11 (Dem 40, Rep 29, Ind 29)
2008 was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30) 2004 was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25)
UnSkewed Avg. 9/24 - 10/4
Very good considering the D+3 skew and the fact this goes back to 9/24 before the debate!
In my state they must be counting voter fraud because I have still not seen one bozo sign yet and about on average 3 bozo stickers a week on a car.
Contrast this to Romney signs which are all over, stickers on cars about 7 a day
Honest question...What controls are in place to keep them from tossing your ballot in the trash? If they know it’s your ballot and which party you’re registered with, they can assume with about 85% accuracy the candidate voted for.
You can scan the RCP list of 2008 polling from just before the election and going back into time......
Well I have undeniable proof that this is poll is quite a bit off: George Mason University keeps track of Ohio early voting ballots returned, and so far only 119,000 (or 2.1% of all votes cast in 2008) have been returned....yet this poll claims 18% of ohio has already voted early. Sorry but they’ve screwed this poll up big time somehow.
Furthermore the electorate is not going to be MORE democratic than in 2008 - it will likely be somewhere between 2008 and 2010 levels, maybe d+2 or 3
I am deeply concerned about the extent of vote Rat vote fraud.
Its a bad sample. Actual numbers from 880,000 early/absentee voters show dems requesting 30% of ballots and repubs requesting 23.4% of ballots as of this am. That leaves 47% unaffiliateds. For the Marist poll to show Obama winning 67% of the early vote that would mean he would take all 30% of the early dem vote which I assume he will and then another 80% of the 47% unaffiliateds leaving only 20% of the 47% unaffiliateds to repubs. That obviously does not pass the smell test. Bigtime. Rogue sample. Just use common sense here.
Upshot: NET, Ds are off over 175,000 from absentee requests in 08. And Obama won OH by 250,000? And someone thinks he can win now????
That’s an 11% difference, but it relates to a national number that is in the neighborhood of 28%, iirc. So, it’s 11% additional of 28% that supports Romney. Romney ends up with 54% of that 28% and Obama gets 34% of 28%. If it’s a poll of a thousand, then 280 of them are indies. If R and O split the remainder that means that 720/2 goes to each = 360. It’s now R 360 + 151 = 522 with O at 360 + 95 = 455. There’s still 34 Indie votes unaccounted for.
That should give you a 52/45 race if you assume a 0 point advantage before you split the non-indie vote.
The computer prints a sticker with your ballot#. I was #1157. It will be checked on election day that ballot #1157 was processed. The ballot was placed in a sealed envelope with #1157 on envelope.
About the only risk I can see is if the individual placing the ballots in the machine was to tamper with my ballot. That actual ballot needs to be verified that it was processed. I suppose two things could happen.
1.They were to mark on my ballot(fill in other blanks) thereby nullifying my vote.
2.Throwing it in the trash. This would get noticed but maybe too late after the votes are already counted.
I received an email from MoveOn, saying that the Democrats had lost their lead in Ohio and that even Sherrod Brown was now a couple of points below the challenger and they needed money in Ohio.
More REAL numbers that explode this hogwash: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2943298/post
Gena Bell Bump
FreedomWorks has been here for a month on our side.
Ah yes, here it is: Ohio lawsuit raises military voting questions
How did that turn out? I hear that the military is voting overwhelmingly for Romney.
LoL, about 10 steelworkers would make a “ton”.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.