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Why the Drop in Weekly Jobless Claims Is Flawed 'missing data from one large state'
http://247wallst.com/2012/10/11/why-the-drop-in-weekly-jobless-claims-is-flawed/#ixzz2903vIrXS ^ | 10/11/2012

Posted on 10/11/2012 8:22:47 AM PDT by dayna134

When we saw that the Labor Department reported a 30,000 drop in weekly jobless claims, the initial thought was that more suspect calculations may be involved. Then the thought that perhaps things may have improved so fast at the end of September that it skewed the data higher. As it turns out, the big drop in the weekly jobless claims does in fact have a huge asterisk attached to it.

CNBC and Dow Jones have both confirmed that this latest weekly jobless claims report was missing data from one large state. Bloomberg noted that the Labor Department spokesperson said that one state accounted for most of the plunge in claims.

(Excerpt) Read more at 247wallst.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: sourcetitlenoturl

1 posted on 10/11/2012 8:22:59 AM PDT by dayna134
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To: dayna134

Let me guess....next week’s numbers will be another drop, relative to a 25k revision on this week’s numbers.


2 posted on 10/11/2012 8:25:45 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: dayna134

What state?


3 posted on 10/11/2012 8:26:41 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: dayna134

How about NAMING the large state?


4 posted on 10/11/2012 8:27:03 AM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: dayna134
When the electric company decides not to send a meter reader, it estimates the amount of electricity used based on prior history, and charges me for that estimated usage. If the estimate is off, the next meter read applies the correction.

I would suspect that the Labor department could do something similar, so that the estimated data could be applied and then later corrected when the actual numbers came in.

Why did they not do that? One wonders.

5 posted on 10/11/2012 8:27:17 AM PDT by asinclair (Bulls*it is a renewable source.)
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To: dayna134
When the electric company decides not to send a meter reader, it estimates the amount of electricity used based on prior history, and charges me for that estimated usage. If the estimate is off, the next meter read applies the correction.

I would suspect that the Labor department could do something similar, so that the estimated data could be applied and then later corrected when the actual numbers came in.

Why did they not do that? One wonders.

6 posted on 10/11/2012 8:27:42 AM PDT by asinclair (Bulls*it is a renewable resource.)
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To: dayna134
This is getting scary. In Obama’s 2nd term there will be tanks in the street, GPS chips implanted into all of us etc.

Yeah leave out a state , etc. then the media will make sure every American hears these bogus numbers every minute until the election.

How much more will we take?

Liberals believe that one entity( government) owning everything is better than millions of competing interests. that doesn't work and results in concentration of power in government and tyranny.Socialism doesn't work.

Obamacare is government limiting our freedom of choice and is socialism taking over our healthcare..

Government is too big already, this expansion of government , this takeover of healthcare is tyranny.

Government is the problem and it has grown at all levels every single year, every month for the last 100 years.

They are tracking our kids in schools with smart IDs, Moochel is telling kids what they can eat, Bloomberg banned big sodas in New York, Obama took over our healthcare, They banned 100 watt light-bulbs , they tell us that we have to discriminate to hire people (affirmative action), soon cars will have to be 27 mpg , etc. This crap has to stop.

I started to write a first draft on how to finally limit government for the first time ever. something has to be done as the problem is government. It’s in personal page here.

7 posted on 10/11/2012 8:30:08 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ..,)
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To: asinclair

Jack Welch had an article in the WSJ about the phony jobs numbers and why his was right. He explained how these jobs numbers are put together. They use census workers, honestly the same people who contacted you during the census, are still contacting people and asking questions to compile the jobs statistics and they can change the questions and methodology any time they want. The numbers are absolutely meaningless.

The best way to judge the unemployment is to look around you and see how many people in your family or on street are unemployed. How many have been laid off in your office and not found work, that sort of thing.


8 posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:41 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: massgopguy

Illinois?

Was this the payoff for Obamas Justice department recently buying the mothballed prison in Northern Illinois?


9 posted on 10/11/2012 8:43:01 AM PDT by proudpapa
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To: dayna134

And who/how/why in that one state has so obliged the Obama campaign?


10 posted on 10/11/2012 8:47:52 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: proudpapa

The jobs numbers are put together by the census workers, they can do whatever they want with the methodology. There are no rules, no continuity, the numbers are a meaningless political organizing tool.


11 posted on 10/11/2012 8:51:58 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: Eva; All

” Jack Welch had an article in the WSJ about the phony jobs numbers and why his was right. He explained how these jobs numbers are put together. They use census workers, honestly the same people who contacted you during the census, are still contacting people and asking questions to compile the jobs statistics and they can change the questions and methodology any time they want. The numbers are absolutely meaningless.”

The article proved how they skewed the numbers.


12 posted on 10/11/2012 8:52:13 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: dayna134

Didn’t the corrupt administration make a deal (payoff) with a large defense contractor to postpone scheduled layoffs until after the election?


13 posted on 10/11/2012 8:56:20 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: Gaffer

The Labor Department will not release the name of the state.

My hunch is that it’s a large state with a Democrat governor—I’m California dreaming.


14 posted on 10/11/2012 8:57:33 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: dayna134

Typical P-Poor reporting. The state is not named so are we to even believe that a state is missing.

Up is down and left is right and there are Four Lights (only followers of Star Trek NG will get this one).


15 posted on 10/11/2012 9:09:09 AM PDT by Wurlitzer (Nothing says "ignorance" like Islam!)
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To: lacrew
Maybe be so. I tried to make a pass at understanding the figures at http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm and I realize once again what nonsense these numbers are. If new jobless claims are the measurement, the ‘seasonally adjusted’ rate is down 30K, but the non-seasonally adjusted rate is UP 25,990.

Liars figuring and all that.

16 posted on 10/11/2012 9:22:50 AM PDT by JustSurrounded (Repeal it all.)
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To: massgopguy
How about NAMING the large state?

LOL, I know. I heard about this on Varney & Co. first thing this morning, 4 hours later, still don't know which "large" state this is. Why are they keeping it a secret?

17 posted on 10/11/2012 9:25:04 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: kenmcg
Didn’t the corrupt administration make a deal (payoff) with a large defense contractor to postpone scheduled layoffs until after the election?

Not quite. Lockheed Martin was set to send out lay-off notices 60 days before Jan. 1 when sequestration is to start. By law, these notices MUST go out. If LM does so, these notices would arrive scant days before election. The WH has "promised" to re-imburse LM for ALL financial ramifications including lawyer costs it may incur for violating the WARN Act.

IOW, "LM, you go and break the law. We have your back."

18 posted on 10/11/2012 9:28:59 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: proudpapa
The Labor Department factors this trend into its seasonally adjusted figures. But last week, a Labor economist said one "large" state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease. The official wouldn't disclose which state, but said it would be released with next week's report as usual.

"One omission by one state—you wouldn't think it would be a big deal, but in this case it drove the number down by 10%," said analyst Stephen Stanley with Pierpont Securities.

Economists are speculating the state could be California, the most populous state in the nation.

"It was likely a state with a large population and we suspect that it was California based on the occasional massive swings that have occurred in its claims data in the past," said Daniel Silver, an economist with JPMorgan, JPM +1.17%in a note.

"In short, this reading is worthless in terms of informing on the general economy," Mr. Stanley wrote in a research note.

19 posted on 10/11/2012 9:29:32 AM PDT by kabar
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To: dayna134
ONLY 56 STATES REPORTED???
20 posted on 10/11/2012 9:37:24 AM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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