Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power

Mitt Romney continues to surge in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, and Friday may have featured his best set of polls all year.

The best way to track a change in the polls is to look for instances in which the same firm has surveyed the same state (or the national race) multiple times. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model relies on a procedure very much like this to calculate the overall trend in the race.

In my opinion, this analysis has increased credibility because it comes from an author - the poll analyst guy from the NY Times (and former JournoLister) Nate Silver - who generally skews pro-Obama in his analysis. Just a few days ago, he was trying to hawk the meme that Romney's post-debate polling surge was a fast-fading blip. But the numbers to support this view never arrived, as he admits in his October, 12 post.

And they’re still oversampling Dims.

The IBD poll where the president got good news on Friday was D +7%, 37D to 30R. I would be stunned if the actual turnout of Ds was this high.

I think Dims will get solid turnout based on the fact that Obummer is the Affirmative Action president, but even race guilt can’t save him now.

They might get 35%, but it won’t be enough to cover the huge impact of the rising independent voters who favor Romney in a big way.

Romney has to follow up with a strong performance in the remaining debates.

I believe that this next one is critical. This is Obama's last chance. If he doesn't undo the damage from the first one then the third debate won't matter. On the other hand, Romney has an opportunity to close the deal. But it won't be easy. The questions will be liberal accusations, the "folks" will be Democrat plants, and Crowley will cut him off every time he gathers momentum like they did to Ryan.

I have faith in Romney's preparation for the tag-teaming he will encounter.

People are sick of Obama’s four year campaign for reelection

Here is an article from September 2009 talking about his media over-exposure during his first eight months. He and his media choirs are responsible for his over-saturation. By end of his second year the American people were all Bamad out.

Excerpts:

During his first eight months in office, President Obama has sat down for three times as many television interviews as his most recent two predecessors combined.
.
"He's turning the presidency into an infomercial," warned former White House speechwriter Matt Latimer. "It's not just damaging to the White House. It will also ultimately hurt President Obama's image as a fresh, non-Washington leader."
.
The media blitz has won Obama unprecedented wall-to-wall coverage in the mainstream media.
.
In the New York Times alone, according to the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University, the number of stories on the Obama administration that have appeared on the front page through mid-August of this year totaled 119,678 column inches. That's 9,973 column feet of Obama coverage on the Times front page alone.
.
As of mid-August, Obama submitted to a total of 66 television interviews, dramatically outstripping his two predecessors,
.

66 television interviews in the first 7 months. That's nearly ten interviews per month, or one every three days. The American people are sick of the sound of his voice.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.