Posted on 10/13/2012 6:27:43 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.
The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.
We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.
The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.
One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.
One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'
In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel 49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Mandel may have more to worry about in 2014- he trails a generic Democrat 40-39 for reelection as State Treasurer. This campaign- at least to date- has been pretty damaging to his image. Others notes from Ohio:
-The state's referendum to create an independent commission on redistricting looks a little bit more alive than it did two weeks ago, although it's still an uphill battle. 37% of voters support it to 44% opposed, compared to a 26/49 spread last time. The main movement has been among Democrats who've gone from favoring it only narrowly (37/34) to pretty strong support (58/24).
-John Kasich has a 42/41 approval spread and leads a hypothetical Democratic opponent 45-42.
-John Boehner's very unpopular in his home state with a 33/46 approval rating. Nevertheless Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 44-42.
-Rob Portman has a 35/25 approval rating. 40% of voters have no opinion about him.
Full results here
I wonder how many out of state plates and people are wandering around that state.
Is this a Joey Buffoon Clown poll? These people are way out of touch with reality.
There’s not a trick in the book that we should not expect to be tried in Ohio.
Weird that the Romney campaign is taking commanding leads everywhere else, but this person singles out the Libya message ‘bot working’ in Ohio. Nope. No agenda from that person.
D 40
R 36
I 24
The poll oversampled Rats by 4.
This is odd.
“The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.”
hate to say it but I think Ohio is going to be in the Obama column.... they’ve hammered the airwaves with Obama ads and its having its impact.. the message of “why change now” is working... I know quiet a few people in Ohio and they can’t believe the number of people they know that are voting for Obama.
Every poll, national and swing states, since debate has shown a Romney bounce of 4-7 points - including in Ohio. Yet this Dem poll shows an Obama gain?
This is a bogus poll meant to pump up left and stop Romney momentum. Won’t work.
Ping
Every poll, national and swing states, since debate has shown a Romney bounce of 4-7 points - including in Ohio. Yet this Dem poll shows an Obama gain?
This is a bogus poll meant to pump up left and stop Romney momentum. Won’t work.
Washington Post Exclusive: PPP Caught Doing Advocacy Polling
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2943462/posts
How do we account for the difference between LS' numbers and these?
It seems a far stretch to say "well, the Dems are just casting their reduced number of absentee ballots more quickly than Republicans."
So something is funny in the numbers - no?
... I understand that the first response is going to be "PPP is totally biased, in the tank for Obama."
Maybe that is the answer - but is it sincerely the answer? What explains the contrast without sheer (even educated) speculation?
No way the electorate will be 40% D on election day.
I call BS on this
Looking at the secondary questions, and the percentages on different issues, it is clear this poll is deeply flawed. It shows drastically different results among independents, positions on issues, etc. I think we can ignore this one unless we see similar results elsewhere.
According to PPP, Ohio is just a political oddity among swing states.
... PS ... in my post above I’m referring to the part of the poll that talks about early votes cast ... not the entire poll.
Rasmussen has 48-47 for O.
I think Romney better start focusing on states that could potentially replace Ohio’s EVs in the path to victory. Sounds like they’re enjoying Obama’s $18 billion corporate welfare payment way too much to vote against him.
A PPP poll is about as credible as a Alexrod talking point ...
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