Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Reuters ^ | Oct. 14, 2012 | Andy Sullivan

[Free ThinkerNY]

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.

The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: bit.ly/RmeEen)

With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: bit.ly/SWm5YR).

The online poll is another sign that early voting is likely to play a bigger role this year than in 2008, when roughly one in three voters cast a ballot before Election Day. Voting is already under way in some form in at least 40 states.

[Lazamataz]

I mean seriously, I have to go to the article and post a comment that pretty much points at Miss Sulliven and LAUGHS and LAUGHS and LAUGHS.....

[Lazamataz]

Unfortunately, they need to approve the comment. They won’t. LOL

[LS]

Please post the link.

[Molly T.]

I don't give a “rats tail” whose bright idea it was to allow so called “early voting”, IT IS WRONG AND SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED, EXCEPT for hardship , unavoidable reasons, such as illness....otherwise people, get off your lazy duffs and go vote on one designated day....PERIOD. This voting thing has gotten ridiculous in this country...a invitation for the political thugs to make their way out of the political slime and tamper with the outcome of our voting....think about it...and ask yourselves...what does this say about a lot of the perspective LEGAL voters in this country?? That you are too damned lazy to get out and go VOTE on a designated day. It has gotten so bad, that there are those who not only vote early, but who want the drive thru voting, so they don't have to get out of their car....and why are we NOT OUTRAGED at these acts that make it so darned easy to manipulate the votes.
I wonder if there was some regret by those who rushed out to vote right ahead of the Lybia fiasco. Hey, how do you like being lied to by the Administration.....do you have any early voter regret??? Will you even allow yourself to go there in your mind???

[hattend]

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters,

Because they said so or because vote results have been released?

Early voting is fraud just waiting to happen..

[BfloGuy]

I don’t think I’d get terribly worked up over a sample with a margin of error of +/- 10%

[CPT Clay]

I find this hard to believe.

[nclaurel]

Absentee ballots and early votes are not counted early are they? Because someone has registered as Democrat does not mean they voted for Obama. So how can it be said that Obama has more share of early votes?

[Lazamataz]

Funny thing is, my Statistics prof in college was teaching about polls, and he told us that there was a logarithmic relationship between polling veracity and the MOE (margin of error). He showed us that the centerpoint was about 3%. Anything higher than 3.5 was likely propaganda, and when you made it to 4.0, you were pretty much in garbage territory. He said you seldom found anything lower than about 2.0, but if you did, take THAT poll to the bank -- providing sampling was done correctly.

If he saw a poll with a MOE of 10.0, he'd have classified it under Fantasy and Science Fiction, and he might have even indicated that you could take the exact opposite result to the bank. :)

[NormsRevenge]

[BfloGuy]

Anything higher than 3.5 was likely propaganda

I wouldn't trust anything that high. Hey, I'm very interested in reading the polls, but people shouldn't get so worked up about them.

Statistics is fascinating, but the misuse of statistics has resulted in outlawing saccharine, demonizing second-hand smoke, nearly banning eggs, and causing people to put their children in harm's way by withholding immunizations.

We should all just go vote and wait for the election results.

[comebacknewt]

Did you happen to have a link for that?