"Just a few bumps in the road....." |
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Posted on 10/15/2012 6:09:54 AM PDT by Perdogg
I’m hesitant to do this with every poll but after the below monstrosity from ABC/Washington Post, it was worth the time to rework the poll with a more reasonable election turnout. The largest bone of contention is that the party identification had a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points more Democrats surveyed than Republicans which in shorthand is D +9. This exceeds the best-in-a generation turnout advantage Obama had in 2008 which was 7 percentage points more Democrats or D +7. But what if that absurd disparity in turnout was a more reasonable turnout of D +3 which is also the historic average over the last 7 Presidential elections?
First I will map out the poll as reported by ABC and the Washington Post
The party ID and vote totals according to ABC/Washington Post:
(Excerpt) Read more at battlegroundwatch.com ...
Yes, but every decent normal person must get out and vote! That’s what counts!
ping
this poll is absurd and i guess they decided to start pushing these oversampling polls again to give an appearance of O being a winner.
Who says the Dems are going to outvote us at all. There are more Repubs then Dems and more enthusiasm. What happens if we plus 9 them?
Pray for America
What do the media think they’re doing with these polls ......building up Narcissist’s confidence for the Townhall debate tomorrow night?
A 5 point differential would be 45.85-44.52. Move to equal turnout and it flips to 47.15-44.24 Romney.
Even a 5 point differential considering that a chunk of that will be in places like NY & Calif. would not mean the Kenyan would win. He can run up vote totals in those states and it won’t help him at all.
but every decent normal person must get out and vote!”
THAT’S RACIST!
the purpose is to establish credibility for vote totals after all the fraudulent votes are entered.
When enough fake votes are added to our horribly corrupted electoral process in blue states, DEMs win, and always after 10 PM with “late [always urban] precincts reporting”.
Even if Romney takes Florida and Virginia handily, Obama only has to win Ohio and Wisconsin by a razor thin margin in the Dem heavy population centers.
And regardless whether it’s 49-47 or 45-49, the fact is that there are roughly just as many people voting now who think the founders were evil white slaveowners, that corporations should all be eliminated and rich people should be “taxed until they bleed,” as there are people who actually believe in individualism, free markets, and God.
This is nothing new. Polls always show a dem winning big if the dem is ahead and a tie or a very tight race with a few outlier polls both ways if the republican is winning....until the last poll before the vote, can't have them wrong by huge numbers in the end so that they still look like a real pollster and not a propagandist for one party like Zogby does now.
This is nothing new. It is the same old stupid game they have played since I have been paying attention (Reagan/ Carter). The only truly strange year I have seen in the polls is 2008 because of the huge change in the number of dems. They are not going to have that this year and know it(2010 has shown them the impossibility of a 2008 repeat), so the polls using those levels of dems in their polling data will just use that as an excuse for being so wrong, saying that it is the accepted practice to use the numbers of last presidential elections party participation to work from.
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My thoughts exactly. There is no basis for the assumption taken by these pollsters that more Dems will turn out than Rep since enthusiasm is higher for Rep by a wide margin and Party I.D is also even or slightly in favor of the Rep this cycle..
In my view this race looks more like 2010 as far as turnout then it does 2008.
A 5 point differential would be 45.85-44.52. Move to equal turnout and it flips to 47.15-44.24 Romney.
Even a 5 point differential considering that a chunk of that will be in places like NY & Calif. would not mean the Kenyan would win. He can run up vote totals in those states and it won’t help him at all.
That is not a fact at all, but your interpretation of what people think.
We are still a center-right country, but Obama had people hoodwinked on hope.
Here's a good site for watching what's happening in Ohio
These are the current numbers on the Absentee ballot situation in Ohio and they also include the early voting numbers in the state. Even though the Democrats are up right now it's nowhere near what they had in 2008. And the Republican numbers have increased in all the counties throughout the state and the ones that stayed home last time will not make that mistake again. In addition, the Democrat numbers have gone down throughout the state.
It's well known among Ohioians that the Democrats come out heavily and vote early, while the Republicans come out heavily and vote on Election day. If you would only have counted the votes on Election day in Ohio John McCain would have won.
So the fact that the Democrats are only leading by 6% overall at this point is very bad news for Obozo. Plus this time around we have a Republican Sec. of State and Republican Governor monitoring the vote counting instead of the Democrats. Watch Cuyahoga county (Cleveland - heavliy democrat), Franklin county (Columbus - the break even point in the state for Republicans), and Hamilton county (Cincinnati - heavily Republican). There are a few more to watch like Summit county and Mongomery.....as indicators of the mood in the state. If we keep it close in Franklin county and the numbers are down in Cuyahoga county the rest of the rural areas throughout the state will ensure a Romney win.
I know the polls for Ohio are Bull sh!t....... With all this going on right now and having lived in the state.......I'm sure Ohio is going in the Romney column.
I'd like to believe that. I think it is indeed true where I live, and in the heartland ("flyover country" as the left calls it).
However, the urban centers have overtaken the rural population in enough swings states to begin controlling the electoral results.
Reagan's America with blue-dog Democrats has greatly diminished over 30 years.
"Just a few bumps in the road....." |
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