TIPP Daily Tracking Poll: R-47/O-47 (D +7 Sampling)

TIPP Online ^ | 10/15 | TIPP Staff

[tatown]

A razor-thin margin separated Obama and Romney in the latest poll. Obama's 46.9% is statistically no different than Romney's 46.6%, given the 3.5-percentage point margin of error. Latest data show Romney improving among women, with Obama's edge among that large voting bloc falling from 10-percentage points in our Sunday poll to just 4-percentage points on Monday. Likewise, Obama's huge 81 point advantage among Blacks and Hispanics shrank back to 72 points on Monday. Independents remain solidly in Romney's camp, giving him an 8-point lead, virtually unchanged in recent days. For the first time since the tracking poll began a week ago, more voters (75%) for Romney than for Obama (73%) were described as "strong" in their intensity of choice this presidential election.

[tatown]

Weird internals...

Obama is only up 4 among women, and down 8 among independents yet the top line number is tied. My gut tells me that the oversample must be around D+8.

[harwood]

37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind

[RoseofTexas]

How predictable... leveling the playing field for Obumbler...My GOD these folks are wicked!! All of sudden polls are even steven? Hell these evil folk will do anything to get their messiah over the finish line. This is like a football game where the visiting team is winning by a few points with the last seconds on the clock and the home team stops the game and says..NAY, let's redo game! BOY O BOY these folks are wicked!!

[rwfromkansas]

Large Dem oversample and based on article appears Obama had a great day of polling that is leveling off. Overall a good poll for us.

[Arthurio]

This poll is a 6 day tracker with a ridiculously small sample size.

[LS]

Bwa hahaha. I can hear Don Meredith singing in the background.

[what's up]

They will do anything it takes to skew polls so Dem donors continue to give.

Any dropoff in O's numbers and their money dries up.

[jps098]

Interesting thing about that 72% for blacks and hispanics. To get a number that low Obama would be something like 83% black support and 57% hispanic support.

The higher one is, the lower the other must be in order to get to that low level of support.

This is also with a +7D sample, so the overall total could be under 70%.

[azcap]

There have been a lot of interesting poll internals that show Obama only getting 85-86% of the black vote. At first glance 85% sounds good but when you are talking about the Democrat black vote that is a devastating number. Obama in 2008 had 96%. For Democrats to win states like OH, FL, PA, MI, NC they count on 92+ % of the black vote and high turnout in the urban centers of those states. Anything less than 90% and they simply can’t overcome the non urban electorates preference for the GOP. Not only are Obama’s numbers with black voter too low, but the black turnout is not going to be anywhere near 2008 levels. A landslide is coming. :) :)