Posted on 10/16/2012 6:00:06 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
One poll found that Pennsylvania voters were more likely to vote for President Obama than for Mitt Romney by an eight-point margin.
Another survey - taken about the same time, just after the candidates' first debate - showed Romney just one point behind.
The reason for the disparity? It all comes down to predicting who will show up at the polls on Nov. 6 - a task made increasingly difficult by the cellphone.
Nationwide, the proportion of cellphone-only households has doubled in less than four years, from 17.5 percent in the first half of 2008 to 34 percent at the end of 2011, according to the most recent government survey. Such people are harder to reach for various reasons.
They could be driving or crossing the street, for example, said Douglas Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, based in Connecticut. Or they may simply be ineligible to participate - perhaps because they are too young to vote, or because they have an area code from the state being polled but actually live in another.
(Excerpt) Read more at philly.com ...
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The reason for the disparity? It all comes down to predicting who will show up at the polls on Nov. 6
The science of polling has gone into the toilet. The advent of modern communications has made it nearly impossible to determine who is on the other end of the line - a 14 year old skate punk, someone in India using VOIP with an American number, or a legitimate likely voter. When polling was conducted to land line telephones, you were relatively sure that the person to whom the phone was listed was a.) of age b.) lived in the district that you were polling. That is absolutely not the case anymore. I know people who have moved multiple times to different states and keep their cell phone numbers the same out of convenience.
Add to this the advent of Obamaphones and now you’ve got yourself a dilemma as a polling organization. It is now impossible to determine a likely voter poll or even a registered voter poll with any certainty.
This is a good point. My SIL lives Ohio and has a cell phone with a KS number.
The net result will be e mail polling.
An e mail poll component added to the telephone poll will yield a different result that can be argued over for ever.
My home phone is unplugged. Only pay for it due to stupid bundle.
I have added over 50 numbers from all over the country to my cells call block list this month alone, which doesn’t even report the call came in and automatically deletes it from call history.
It also allows automatic blocking & deletion of text messages. Worth over $1000 IMHO
This whole cell phone problem sounds like a big lie to me. A)Cell phone users carry their cells most everywhere they go. Landlines are tied to a specific location.
B)A quick text message requesting a reply to 3 or 4 questions is easy.
C)Cell phone numbers are as easy to get as a landline number.
D)It is easy to get demographic information on most anyone before the call is made. Age, Sex, etc.
E)I bet you can come up with many other reasons as well.
Thanks
JOE
This whole cell phone problem sounds like a big lie to me. A)Cell phone users carry their cells most everywhere they go. Landlines are tied to a specific location.
B)A quick text message requesting a reply to 3 or 4 questions is easy.
C)Cell phone numbers are as easy to get as a landline number.
D)It is easy to get demographic information on most anyone before the call is made. Age, Sex, etc.
E)I bet you can come up with many other reasons as well.
Thanks
JOE
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