Posted on 10/17/2012 10:44:31 AM PDT by TBBT
Thank goodness; my mute button was wearing out! Look for a PAC or two to keep up the aural and visual assault, however.
At this rate Obama may have little else left but Crazyfornia.
hmmm. interesting.
Or... PA is in the Bag, lets get a mandate and cement Michigan...
I have been saying since 10/11' watch Michigan, now I think it will be Obama's last stand to save Stabenow's seat and for future UAW support....
DVRs and Hulu are the best things to ever happen to election season.
Never had to see one Obama ad.
R&R should push hard in PA, MI and WI. Make Obama spend money playing defense there.
RCP still has NC and FL as “toss-up” with the total being Obama 201, Romney 191.
If Obama surrenders them, it becomes Romney 235, Obama 201 with Romney only needing 35 electoral votes from among the remaining RCP toss-ups:
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Knocking on wood over here.
Romney needs to open more fronts in Michigan, PA and Wis.
I watch baseball games live, so I've seen plenty.
My favorite is the one with the authoritative Morgan Freeman voiceover.
I keep expecting to hear the President say at the end:
"I'm Barack Obama and, while I approve this message - well, Morgan Freeman's sleeping with his step-granddaughter, that I do not approve."
Folks, I am absolutely delighted and thrilled with this latest polling data and I hope it proves to be lasting trend through election day.
HOWEVER, given all this crap we’ve been through these last few months and all of the manipulation we’ve seen with the polls. Before we discuss a particular poll-—whether good news or bad news——Let’s find out the DEM/REP/IND breakdown of the poll. Show me the poll’s components and I’ll show you the outcome.
Does anyone happen to know the DEM/REP/IND breakdown for these latest polls from Gallup?
for those in rio linda,
binder is THREE RING BINDER as in NOTEBOOK.
bbb.bbbbbu....bb...bbbbb but I thought he WON THE DEBATE and was the COMEBACK KID!!!
The problem is poll responses have dropped from 50% as recently as 25 years ago to 9% earlier this year, and have continued to drop.
People no longer answer the phone unless they want to do so. PEW reported that by the time you get an adult on the phone, and find out they are willing to answer a polster, you are down to just 9% of the people you called.
At that level you no longer have a statistically valid poll and there's little meaningful information you can get out of it.
If it drops lower you begin to concentrate TRUE BELIEVERS and they'll tell you all about what or who they like ~ 24/7!
Image polling and the only folks who'll answer the phone and answer questions are folks just coming in off the streets handing out campaign prochures, or helping people register to vote. Imagine a poll where only Dick Morris, lazmataz, J Robinson, muawiyah, etc. answer!
That's what it's like. Doesn't mean our opinions are no good, but they aren't randomly selected anymore.
The Obama campaign team is flying blind. They don't know where to go ~ everything looks 50/50 now ~ even the polls, so does that mean the Democrats should spend money shoring up California or Maryland? Do the Republicans need to try snatching back Texas just in case it slipped away ~ and what about Virginia? What is going on there with both candidates making a speech somewhere in the Old Dominion several times a week?
Obviously I've given up on divining the outcome through polls ~ consider them the black magic that failed. Instead I'm returning to the historic outlook. That means I have my eye out for Romney forces rallying to claw back Obama's 10 million vote lead in 2008 ~ and for Obama's crowd to figure out how it was they lost 30 million voters in 2010!
Bet most Freepers don't know that but the 2010 election was a real race to the bottom. The Democrats dropped 2X as many voters as the Republicans ~ but that's not totally unanticipated. What was an incredible surprise is they lost 30 million voters ~ JFK beat Nixon with both in the 34 million range, and it's actually 3 million more voters than the number who voted for Barry Goldwater 4 years later. Nixon won with 32 million in 1968. George McGovern lost with 28 million in 1972!
The 2010 election was one where the outcome in terms of the NON VOTERS who'd just turned out in 2008 was an absolutely immense number of people.
The polls are certainly not going to show an electoral blowout for Romney over Obama and should shortly start pronouncing it a dead tie almost everywhere but DC. However, historically, the Democrats proved they could bring out 69 million people for an election of truly historic proportions. Yet, they couldn't do it twice. In fact, they lost as many voters as they've actually had for most of their history.
I expect the extreme leftwing candidate to pull many fewer millions of votes than expected by the poll watchers.
If he is circling the wagons in Iowa and NH he is toast.
These next 3 weeks cannot go fast enough for me....
Ohio is where this is all going down. Unless Romney does break out in some of the other states he isn’t expected to carry, we could lose this thing in Ohio.
Here is all I can find quickly on their site. The fact that it is a rolling deal over 7 days I'm sure it wanders.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone-only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
And this from Sept 10.
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-five-percent-lead-by-unskewed-gallup-poll-data
The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.
The one thing that concerns me is the tracking IBD/TIPP poll still shows comrade Zero up 1. They do use a Rat+7 sample.
in my circle, we refer to him as Morgan "Woody Allen" Freeman...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.