Ohio: The (Electoral) Heart of It All (the presidential election revolves around the Buckeye state)

In an October 12 entry [1] at the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog, Philip Klein showed readers a map containing a prospective electoral vote outcome for this year’s presidential race between incumbent Democrat Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney which would result in a 269-269 tie.

As I see it, that map–which shows Romney taking every important swing state save one–represents where things really stood that day and where they remained as of when this column was submitted. If there’s an exception, it’s that it shows Obama winning Ohio.

Klein accurately explains that Romney would more than likely have the upper hand if the Electoral College ends up in a tie:

Under the U.S. Constitution … the presidential race is turned over to the House of Representatives (assuming no unexpected defections when the electors formally vote in December).

And here’s the twist: each state would get just one vote, based on what the majority of its own delegation decides. A candidate would thus need 26 votes to win.

While it’s nice that Republicans will, barring a congressional sea change almost no one except Nancy Pelosi [2] is predicting, control a majority of the state delegations in the House in January 2013, Klein’s parenthetical is far more than theoretical.

Just one “faithless elector” withholding his or her vote or voting for someone other than the person to whom he or she is pledged would prevent the tie just described. The operative word appears to be “would,” not “could.” Faithless, accidental (I’m not kidding [3]), or withheld electoral votes have occurred in eight of the past 14 presidential elections and as recently as 2004. Those gambits have apparently stood either unchallenged or not successfully challenged.

This year [4], in a potentially catastrophic development, Ron Paul loyalists in Nevada and Texas have threatened in advance that they might withhold their votes if Mitt Romney carries their states. A Paul-supporting Iowa elector who promised she would do the same has resigned [5] and been replaced.

There is also the far from small possibility that an Electoral College tie could occur while President Obama receives more popular votes. The best-case scenario if that transpires is that Romney would have to endure at least two years of being cast as “illegitimate” by the left and the press. There are potentially many other very unpleasant and dangerous worst-case scenarios.

All of this explains why Mitt Romney must win Ohio if he wishes to become our 45th president.

I believe, despite Rasmussen’s October 11 estimate [6] of a slight Obama edge, that Romney is barely ahead in the Buckeye State, and that his lead is on track to grow in the remaining weeks of the campaign for a variety of reasons. A few of them include his stellar October 3 debate performance paired with Obama’s virtual no-show; the administration’s lethal security laxness in Benghazi followed by the administration’s thoroughly exposed dishonesty about the true cause and circumstances surrounding the murders of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans; and Obama’s war on coal, where closed coal mines [7] and the Obama campaign’s lying attacks [8] on miners’ credibility appear to have moved the southern and eastern portions of the state from reliably Democratic to perhaps 50-50.

That Romney has the momentum in Ohio is undeniable. The crowds at recent Romney and Ryan appearances have been so large that even chief Obama bootlicker Steve Peoples [9] and his bosses at the Associated Press, aka the Administration’s Press [10], appear to have decided for the sake of whatever remains of their credibility to report them [11] instead of lying about them [12]. A Friday Columbus Dispatch editorial [13] ruthlessly ripped the Obama administration’s handling of the entire Benghazi debacle. It also appears that more voters are figuring out that the Buckeye State has economically outperformed most of the rest of the nation, not because of the “Obama saved the auto industry” myth [14], but because of the fiscally conservative, mostly growth-oriented policies pursued by GOP Governor John Kasich since he took office in January 2011. Before that–and though much improvement is still needed–Ohio was a pathetic economic laggard.

That the Obama campaign has become very concerned about Ohio is equally undeniable. Team Obama is sending [15] two of the left’s allegedly brightest stars, Bill Clinton and Bruce Springsteen, who originally [16] ”said he wouldn’t campaign for Obama” earlier this year, into the state for a joint appearance on October 18.

Springsteen’s official website [17] quotes Obama campaign apparatchik Jim Messina as follows: “Bruce Springsteen’s values echo what the president and vice president stand for: hard work, fairness, integrity.” Exactly how Messina or “The Boss [18]” can reconcile those alleged positive traits with 100-plus rounds of golf [19], unprecedented cronyism [20], and enough lies to keep Michael Ramirez at Investor’s Business Daily busy presenting ten each day [21] between now and Election Day if he so chooses–leaving plenty still unnamed–is a complete mystery.

I find it quite interesting that the campaign finds the values of the president to be in harmony, so to speak, with those of a multimillionaire member of the “one percent” who still saw fit to give his unequivocal support [16] to the anachronistic anarchists of the Occupy movement.

It reminds us at a very useful time that Obama [22] and many fellow party members [23] also supported Occupy, and have never retracted [24] their support.

Though he appears well-situated to prevail, there can be no letup by Team Romney in the Buckeye State between now and when the polls close at 7:30 p.m. on Election Day. Ohio truly is the heart of it all this time around.

[1] an October 12 entry: http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney-has-solid-edge-in-269-269-electoral-vote-tie-scenario/article/2510605#.UHv9M7TDm18

[2] except Nancy Pelosi: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/16/news/la-pn-pelosi-medicare-democratic-majority-20120916

[3] I’m not kidding: http://web.archive.org/web/20041217034158/http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5134791.html

[5] has resigned: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/09/14/ron-paul-electoral-college-mitt-romney/70000354/1#.UHwDH7TDm18

[6] October 11 estimate: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

[7] closed coal mines: http://massdiscussion.blogspot.com/2012/08/coal-mine-closes-in-ohio-obama-blamed.html

[8] lying attacks: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/14/Ohio-Coal-miners-condemn-Obama

[9] chief Obama bootlicker Steve Peoples: http://pjmedia.com/blog/ap-steve-peoples/?singlepage=true

[10] the Administration’s Press: http://pjmedia.com/blog/the-administrations-press/

[11] to report them: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i1FSDEM-d2Yaf3G-OvJMlsidLQeQ?docId=340c7a6e7427476f840436a50d56c850

[12] lying about them: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2012/08/16/aps-peoples-politicos-summers-ryans-oxford-ohio-speech-only-drew-hundreds-all-local-reports-say-thousands/

[13] Friday Columbus Dispatch editorial: http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/editorials/2012/10/12/preventable-tragedy.html

[14] myth: http://watchdog.org/56722/blumer-blade-falsely-equalizes-dem-gop-claims-about-ohs-growth/

[15] is sending: http://www.showbiz411.com/2012/10/13/bruce-springsteen-coming-to-support-obama-in-ohio

[16] originally: http://gothamist.com/2012/02/18/bruce_springsteen_credits_occupy_wa.php

[18] The Boss: http://www.jagsreport.com/2012/10/the-boss-to-help-in-obamas-campaign/

[19] 100-plus rounds of golf: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/06/18/155279361/obamas-played-100-rounds-of-golf-which-presidents-beat-that

[21] presenting ten each day: http://www.investors.com/editorial-cartoons/michael-ramirez/629261

[22] Obama: http://m.newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2012/09/22/ap-report-occupy-anniversary-wallows-nostalgia-ignores-blockade-plan-oba

[23] many fellow party members: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/democrats-offer-solidarity-to-occupy-wall-street-protesters/

[24] have never retracted: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/05/23/Why-Obama-Refuses-To-Back-Off-Occupy-Endorsement

” That Romney has the momentum in Ohio is undeniable. The crowds at recent Romney and Ryan appearances have been so large that even chief Obama bootlicker Steve Peoples [9] and his bosses at the Associated Press, aka the Administration’s Press [10], appear to have decided for the sake of whatever remains of their credibility to report them [11] instead of lying about them “

Great one : )

Just one “faithless elector” withholding his or her vote or voting for someone other than the person to whom he or she is pledged would prevent the tie just described.

Wrong! The faithless elector would have to vote for the other candidate. The problem isn't a tie - it is the lack of "a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed" (12th amendment). If there are 538 electors appointed, then the winner needs 270 votes. 269-269, 269-268 with an abstention, or 269-268-1 would all put the election into the House. A plurality of the electoral college is not sufficient.

My take on Ohio: (where I live and vote)
A lot of anti-Romney babble among the masses. He hates women, he loves rich people, he will take away your birth control and the world population will explode.. and on and on.

These people are all talk. They will not show up at the ballot boxes. They will show up in likely voter polls because they signed up last year to vote for “the one”, and their intention is to vote. But (and that’s a MO sized butt) they will not get their lazy arses in gear enough to actually vote.

MORE PRESIDENTS HAVE COME FROM OHIO and NEW YORK THAN ANY OTHER STATE

Total of 43 presidents based where their political career started/where they came from. (Based on residence and birth, priority given to residence). Only 18 out of the 50 states are represented. Grover Cleveland is both the 22nd & 24th president, thus there are only 43 presidents in the below table. Barack Obama is the 44th President. Presidents with an asterisk (*) did not primarily reside in their respective birth states (they were not born in the state listed below).

State	Number of Presidents	Presidents (#th President of the United States)
New York	6	Martin Van Buren (8), Millard Fillmore (13), Chester A. Arthur* (21), Grover Cleveland* (22, 24), Theodore Roosevelt (26), Franklin D. Roosevelt (32)
Ohio	6	William Henry Harrison* (9), Rutherford B. Hayes (19), James A. Garfield (20), William McKinley (25), William Howard Taft (27), Warren G. Harding (29)
Virginia	5	George Washington (1), Thomas Jefferson (3), James Madison (4), James Monroe (5), John Tyler (10)
Massachusetts	4	John Adams (2), John Quincy Adams (6), Calvin Coolidge* (30), John Fitzgerald Kennedy (35)
California	3	Herbert Hoover* (31), Richard Nixon (37), Ronald Reagan* (40)
Illinois	3	Abraham Lincoln* (16), Ulysses S. Grant* (18), Barack Obama* (44)
Tennessee	3	Andrew Jackson* (7), James K. Polk* (11), Andrew Johnson* (17)
Texas	3	Lyndon B. Johnson (36), George H. W. Bush* (41), George W. Bush* (43)
Arkansas	1	Bill Clinton (42)
Georgia	1	Jimmy Carter (39)
Indiana	3	William Henry Harrison* (9), Abraham Lincoln* (16), Benjamin Harrison* (23)
Kansas	1	Dwight D. Eisenhower* (34)
Louisiana	1	Zachary Taylor* (12)
Michigan	1	Gerald Ford* (38)
Missouri	1	Harry S. Truman (33)
New Hampshire	1	Franklin Pierce (14)
New Jersey	1	Woodrow Wilson* (28)
Pennsylvania	1	James Buchanan (15)

State	President	#
Arkansas	Bill Clinton	42
California	Herbert Hoover	31
	Richard Nixon	37
	Ronald Reagan	40
Georgia	Jimmy Carter	39
Illinois	Abraham Lincoln	16
	Ulysses S. Grant	18
	Barack Obama	44
Indiana	Benjamin Harrison	23
Kansas	Dwight D. Eisenhower	34
Louisiana	Zachary Taylor	12
Massachusetts	John Adams	2
	John Quincy Adams	6
	Calvin Coolidge	30
	John F. Kennedy	35
Michigan	Gerald Ford	38
Missouri	Harry S. Truman	33
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce	14
New Jersey	Woodrow Wilson	28
New York	Martin Van Buren	8
	Millard Fillmore	13
	Chester A. Arthur	21
	Grover Cleveland	22, 24
	Theodore Roosevelt	26
	Franklin D. Roosevelt	32
Ohio	William Henry Harrison	9
	Rutherford B. Hayes	19
	James A. Garfield	20
	William McKinley	25
	William Howard Taft	27
	Warren G. Harding	29
Pennsylvania	James Buchanan	15
Tennessee	Andrew Jackson	7
	James K. Polk	11
	Andrew Johnson	17
Texas	Lyndon B. Johnson	36
	George H. W. Bush	41
	George W. Bush	43
Virginia	George Washington	1
	Thomas Jefferson	3
	James Madison	4
	James Monroe	5
	John Tyler	10

....or terror that he could sneak in again.

Your comment reminds me of that quote from Dr Johnson, which goes something like, "The prospect of imminent death wonderfully concentrates the mind." I think the prospect of four more years of Obama is "wonderfully concentrating" a lot of minds.

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