Posted on 10/20/2012 7:18:52 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
Ohio will come down to ground game. It always does. That’s why it’s always a swing state. Republican enthusiasm bodes well for republican ground game. But the problem with ground game is that workers can’t rely on good news to the extent it causes them to lean back and rest a spell. It needs to presented as motivation and not as triumphalism.
Good article.
Tony, what impact will John Kasich have? I remember reading a year or so ago that he was the “most unpopular governor” but that may have been false information. I’ve also read that his popularity has improved as some of his ideas have proven to be effective.
It seems that a state that elected a Republican governor in a tough economy would have learned something, and so do it again on the national level.
It’s the same here! And I’ve noticed that all the Dem signs are mysteriously empty of ANY party identification.
I can say anecdotely that the enthusiasm isn’t there like 2008
******
I live in a deep blue state and work around a bunch of liberals and I can say the same thing. The persistent unemployment and sad economic realities of the past four years have taken their toll. The thrill is gone.
“I don’t. I think it’s about 85% D for Zero, about 93-95% R for Romney. That in itself is big enough.”
I’ll take that!
I live in NYC area and there is literally nothing whatsoever. No bumper stickers, no yard signs, nothing!
Its crazy
OH MY! ( I was doing an Eyeore thing about Ohio, and then I read this!)
I guess it doesn’t matter if there are signs around NYC - they are going blue regardless.
Bump
“I never thought OH was a lock for the demholes.”
This is a good point — I keep hearing and reading all this stuff about how everybody assumed the race was a “lock” for Obama only until the first debate a few weeks ago. This is complete and utter BS.
I don’t think many people around here have ever believed Obama was a lock to win — we all realized that a poll that oversamples Dems +13 is simply not reflective of reality.
I would concede that Romney’s momentum was super-charged after the 1st debate and he is likely running away with it now (though no one in the LSM would be willing to admit it). But before the 1st debate, I think Romney still had a slight edge if the polls would have had realistic samples.
Analysis of the Fox Ohio poll result from Rebalance:
“That is with LVs sampled with D’s + 8% - 42%D and 34%R. Obama won Ohio by 4% in 08 with D’s + 6% in Ohio exit polls. Romney is destroying Obama among independents 55% to 29%. With Romney where he is nationally there is zero chance that the D turnout in Ohio will exceed 2008. In the absence of other factors that can move the electorate there is no way Romney loses Ohio. When rebalanced to Ds and Rs even up as a baseline, I have Romney +5.48%
Another powerful point is that the poll has D’s +1% over R’s in party allegiance and D’s+1% in net crossovers - Not Going to Happen. Both categories will be +2% Rs minimum. So even if the Indie breakdown is high there is plenty of room.”
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/2012/10/superb-news-fox-has-o-3-in-ohio-but.html
Romney will win OH next month”
I think he will and I think Romney will win the election.
the ‘no tossups’ map has Romney winning enough EVs that all he needs now is Ohio - he’s got FL, NC, VA, and CO.
I believe the media is deliberately skewing Ohio because if they DIDNT they would have to write a “ROmney leads, Obama behind” narrative.
Quinnipiniac is surveying Ohio today, in conjunction with CBS. They do call cell phones. Long survey, compared to others I’ve taken.
Great article.... I was concerned about the “early voting” and its been stated that Obama’s campaigned had focused on this from a the start. From the numbers, it looks like Romney beat him to the punch.
obama will admit he’s from Kenya then be elected Sec General of the U.N. And Bill Clinton’s head will finally explode.
Ohio is a near tie and always was, period. Anyone who believed Osama would win it by 10 points rides the short bus.
OH is no longer all that poll: given the fact that Romney has been tied or down by 1% in the last three OH polls, all three of which oversampled Democrats by ridiculous margins (the PPP poll, where Romney trailed by 1%, was a D+8 poll in which Romney won more Dems than Obama won Republicans and in which Romney led big among indies), I think that Romney is up by 3% and climbing. Another way to look at it: Romney is up by like 4%-6% in national polls with realistic samples, and the last time that a Republican presidential nominee underperformed in OH by more than 2% compared to his national vote percentage was in 1872 (Grant’s reelection). There is no way that Romney could be doing much worse in OH than he is nationally.
Cue Randy Quaid from “Independence Day”: “I been sayin’ it and sayin’ it——ain’t I been sayin’ it’”
all that poll = all that close
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