Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole

Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco. Not good.

We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first time of this presidential campaign. The Governor has also opened a 7 point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters.

We recognize that 19 days is an eternity in politics, but the underlying dynamics with states moving in and out of play and the tightening of polls in the battleground states has increased uncertainty, at least in our opinion, on who will be the next POTUS.

It appears to us that the momentum is in Governor Romney’s favor, but we do not have a good sense of the political dynamics on the ground in the states that really matter, such as Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.

As traders we are always nervous and looking for potential disasters on the horizon. We are becoming increasingly concerned the way this election is shaping up. Imagine, for example, if Governor Romney wins the popular vote and President Obama takes the electoral college, or vice versa.

We see the President’s probability of winning the election on Intrade remaining above 6o percent while Governor Romney opens a fairly significant lead in the daily Gallup tracking poll (see below). WTF?

The Black Swan? The fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 election fiasco. Total disaster.

We’re always nervous but growing more so as November 6th approaches. Stay tuned.

I believe the foreign policy debate is loaded with dangers for Romney. He could easily be seen as trying to politicize issues that should not be. Obama will be self-righteous and list his many accomplishments. Romney will appear to be war monger in contrast - which will not play with a nation that is war weary.

WHAT ACCOMPLISHMENTS?” There are NONE, zip nada!!!

Not true at all!

23+ million people out of work, and giving up, is an accomplishment, of sorts.

People still losing their homes, is also an accomplishment. That doesn't occur without causes, and people like Obama "leading" the way.

6 trillion more to the national debt, would not have occurred without Obama having a hand in that.

4 years of $trillion+ budget deficits weren't caused by republican congresses, nor by a republican president. Something tells me that, Obama deserves a lot of credit for that.

15 million more people needing to go on food stamps, is also something that, Obama deserves a lot of the credit for.

More than 15 million living in poverty now, is something that, Obama's resume should include.

A disastrous foreign policy, which has Al-Qaeda on the rise, and Iraq being in the beginning stages of becoming completely lost to militant groups, and Iran getting close to getting the nuclear bomb, and terrorists attacking our embassies and killing our Ambassador and 3 others, should be considered an accomplishment which only the Obama administration should get credit for.

There are a lot of other "accomplishments" too numerous to mention in a short post, but, you get my drift.

Accomplishments aren't all positive, and Obama has mostly negatives. But, "accomplishments", they are.

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