Gallup Tracking Poll: R51/O45

Gallup ^ | 10/22 | Gallup

[rwfromkansas]

While I disagree with that to some degree....would rather weight.....it has some logic to it that affiliation is a changing variable and not necessarily something you can rely on.

There may be a lot of Dems voting Obama or something, who knows.

[crz]

Next week-7 to 9 days from today is key. If this holds and its 51-52 then, its just about done.

Romney needs to run like he is 20 points down, all the way to election night.

[SeekAndFind]

FROM GALLUP's OWN WEBSITE :

Election Year Presidential Preferences: Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
1936 - 2008

Year	Nominees	Final Poll	Election Results	Deviation
2008	Barack Obama	55	52.6	-2
	John McCain	44	46.0	+2
2004	George W. Bush	49	50.7	-2
	John F. Kerry	49	48.3	+1
2000	George W. Bush	48	47.9	0
	Albert Gore, Jr.	46	48.4	-2
	Ralph Nader	4	2.7	+1
1996	William J. Clinton	52	49.2	+3
	Robert Dole	41	40.7	0
	H. Ross Perot	7	8.4	-1
1992	William J. Clinton	49	43.0	+6
	George Bush	37	37.4	0
	H. Ross Perot	14	18.9	-5
1988	George Bush	56	53.4	+3
	Michael Dukakis	44	45.6	-2
1984	Ronald Reagan	59	58.8	0
	Walter F. Mondale	41	40.6	0
1980	Ronald Reagan	47	50.7	-4
	Jimmy Carter	44	41.0	+3
	John Anderson	8	6.6	+1
1976	Jimmy Carter	48	50.1	-2
	Gerald Ford	49	48.0	+1
1972	Richard Nixon	62	60.7	+1
	George McGovern	38	37.5	0
1968	Richard Nixon	43	43.4	0
	Hubert H. Humphrey	42	42.7	-1
	George Wallace	15	13.5	+1
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	64	61.1	+3
	Barry Goldwater	36	38.5	-3
1960	John F. Kennedy	51	49.7	+1
	Richard Nixon	49	49.5	-1
1956	Dwight Eisenhower	59.5	57.4	+2
	Adlai Stevenson	40.5	42.0	-2
1952	Dwight Eisenhower	51	55.1	-4
	Adlai Stevenson	49	44.4	+5
1948	Harry S. Truman	44.5	49.5	-5
	Thomas E. Dewey	49.5	45.1	-4
	Strom Thurmond	4	2.4	+2
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	51.5	53.4	-2
	Thomas E. Dewey	48.5	45.9	+3
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	52	54.7	-3
	Wendell L. Willkie	48	44.8	+3
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	55.7	60.8	-5
	Alfred M. Landon	44.3	36.5	+8

---

[9YearLurker]

Of course, they would have got completely different, economy-driven responses, if they’d just asked the women what is most important in the race.

But once they qualify it as a query on ‘issues for women’, the respondents somewhat naturally look to prioritize among those ‘women’s issues’. Made up news intended to help Obama. I guess Axelrod must be pressing on Gallup pretty hard.

[rwfromkansas]

I am not sure if Romney would lose even if he said tonight a true gaffe like calling Britain an enemy or something.

I do worry about an Allred October surprise but not any Iran deal. That won’t hurt, though Allred could if the campaign is not prepared to strike back immediately.

I hope they are aware of the rumors out there so they can immediately counter the claims with rebuttal witnesses as soon as it comes out.

[okie01]

The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.

We now know that only 9% of all calls result in interviews.

Assembling a random sample of the entire universe out of a sample that represents only one-in-eleven is virtually impossible.

Most of the polls weight for the standard demographics -- age, race, gender, income, education, etc. But they do not weight for party identification, simply accepting whatever the result is.

Given the weighting by race, the continual over-sampling of Democrats is obviously an artifact of white Democrats being more likely to answer the phone and respond to a pollster than are white Republicans.

[onyx]

"We're down to the final months of the president's term ... You have to wonder what obama's thinking: So little time, so much to redistribute."

GO ROMNEY!


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[CatOwner]

Yes, pretty much proves my point. Since 1952, fairly accurate. Gallup determined after the 1948 election that he had a methodology issue and corrected it.

If you will note, Gallup was low by 2% in 2004 and 2008 for the GOP candidate. They pretty much nailed the GOP numbers in 1996 and 2000. If anything, Gallup tends to report the DEM numbers a bit too high.

[jmaroneps37]

This is the message that came along with today's Battleground poll showing Romney +2 overall.

“Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, ROMNEY LEADS Obama BY 7 POINTS, 52 PERCENT TO 45 PERCENT.”

[Arthurio]

I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.

[nhwingut]

That picture is perfect. You have Romney laughing. Obama about to cry. And Chris Matthews (with his overhanging gut) pissed off.

That will be the exact emotions on election night.

[TornadoAlley3]

Rasmussen projected the 04 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.
Rasmussen’s final polls in 08 had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama’s final margin of 53%-46%.

[SamAdams76]

Obama’s “Flexibility” moment with Medvedev.

Romney has got to find a way to work that one in tonight. Amazingly, very few Americans are aware of Obama telling the Prime Minister of Russia, when he thought he was off-mike, that he will have "more flexibility" in meeting Russia's demands for U.S. disarmament after the election.

This comment borders on treason and it needs to get better exposed. Not that it will change the minds of those that already fully support him but it should be able to swing a lot of Independents and "Reagan Democrat" types.

[PapaBear3625]

at 45 no way O is going to win this election. Stick a fork in him - he’s done.

The Chicago machine will not go away easily. There will be unprecedented levels of vote fraud. We will need every single voter at the polls, because it will come down to how many people show up.

[okie01]

I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.

Exactly my point.

A Republican voter is more likely to take this tack than a Democrat voter.

A week ago Friday night, without looking at the Caller ID, I took a pollster's call -- and ended up in the ABC/Washington Post poll announced last Monday (Obama 49, Romney 46). But I've probably failed to pick-up on a half dozen calls by pollsters in the past few months.

[onyx]

RedMDer captured it!

[Hotlanta Mike]

If O/Ax want to swing the election in their favor they’re gonna need Gloria Allred to bring forward a number of women who claim to be Mitt’s other wives, seeing that polygamy in the US is outlawed.

Otherwise turn out the lights, the party is over...

[Jeff Chandler]

With borders:

Election Polls -- Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections

Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

Year	Candidates	Final Gallup Survey	Election Result	Gallup Deviation
		%	%	%
2008	Obama	55.0	53.0	+2.0
	McCain	44.0	46.0	-2.0
2004	Bush	49.0	50.7	-1.7
	Kerry	49.0	48.3	+0.7
2000	Bush	48.0	47.9	0.1
	Gore	46.0	48.4	-2.4
	Nader	4.0	2.7	1.3
1996	Clinton	52.0	49.2	+2.8
	Dole	41.0	40.7	0.3
	Perot	7.0	8.4	-1.4
1992	Clinton	49.0	43.3	+5.7
	Bush	37.0	37.7	-0.7
	Perot	14.0	19.0	-5.0
1988	Bush	56.0	53.0	+3.0
	Dukakis	44.0	46.1	-2.1
1984	Reagan	59.0	59.2	-0.2
	Mondale	41.0	40.8	+0.2
1980	Reagan	47.0	50.8	-3.8
	Carter	44.0	41.0	+3.0
	Anderson	8.0	6.6	+1.4
	Other	1.0	1.6	-0.6
1976	Carter	48.0	50.1	-2.1
	Ford	49.0	48.1	+0.9
	McCarthy	2.0	0.9	+1.1
	Other	1.0	0.9	+0.1
1972	Nixon	62.0	61.8	+0.2
	McGovern	38.0	38.2	-0.2
1968	Nixon	43.0	43.5	-0.5
	Humphrey	42.0	42.9	-0.9
	Wallace	15.0	13.6	+1.4
1964	Johnson	64.0	61.3	+2.7
	Goldwater	36.0	38.7	-2.7
1960	Kennedy	50.5	50.1	+0.4
	Nixon	49.5	49.9	-0.4
1956	Eisenhower	59.5	57.8	+1.7
	Stevenson	40.5	42.2	-1.7
1952	Eisenhower	51.0	55.4	-4.4
	Stevenson	49.0	44.6	+4.4
1948	Truman	44.5	49.5	-5.0
	Dewey	49.5	45.1	+4.4
	Wallace	4.0	2.4	+1.6
	Thurmond	2.0	2.0	0.0
1944	Roosevelt	51.5	53.8	-2.3
	Dewey	48.5	46.2	+2.3
1940	Roosevelt	52.0	55.0	-3.0
	Willkie	48.0	45.0	+3.0
1936	Roosevelt	55.7	62.5	-6.8
	Landon	44.3	37.5	+6.8

[GonzoGOP]

The point to take away from that is that they haven’t been off by 6 points in a two way race. There were large margins in 1948 and 1992 but those were both three way races. There is no national third party to throw off the polling the way Perot did in 1992.

[shoedog]

Still waiting to see dramatic shift to 2-3 points after last debate to show “sudden surge” to Obama,since they aren’t showing any internals