To: pabianice
This Zogby poll has some truly bizarre, counter-intuitive results. In spite of only favoring Democrats by 2 points (37-35), it purports to show Obama now leading among men and only slightly ahead among women. And yet, Romney is shown to lead significantly among Independent voters. A very odd sample, and a small one (800 LV) at that.
18 posted on
10/22/2012 12:17:38 PM PDT by
andy58-in-nh
(Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
To: andy58-in-nh
A very odd sample, and a small one (800 LV) at that. That is a very small sample. It breaks down to 16 people per state, but you would think that Zogby would weight states by population. Even then, it is still difficult to get random in larger states.
To: andy58-in-nh
800 isn't that "small" if your model is a good one. Keep in mind that sampling 1000 would only improve the margin of error by about 11% so, from like +/-4 to +/-3.5
The problem is that Zogby's models aren't good, so he could sample 2500 and still have zero predictive value.
30 posted on
10/22/2012 12:31:08 PM PDT by
FredZarguna
(A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson