Skip to comments.Nate Silver’s Flawed Model- The NY Times number cruncher lets his partisanship show.
Posted on 10/22/2012 1:58:03 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
In the days before the first debate in Denver, President Obama held more than a four-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average, and Romney had been left for dead by most of the media. Then the debate came, and overnight Romney seemingly rid himself of the negatives that had been tacked on to him by over $100 million dollars in negative advertising. Now here we are a few weeks later with a dead heat in nationwide polls.
As worry built up among Democrats that Romney had tied the race nationally and had clear momentum heading into the final stretch, they began attaching their hopes to what BuzzFeeds Ben Smith called the bulwark against all-out Dem panic Nate Silver.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Silver is Obama's butt boy.
The Money Quote:
"While there is nothing wrong with trying to make sense of the polls, it should be noted that Nate Silver is openly rooting for Obama, and it shows in the way he forecasts the election."
How did Nate do in the 2010 Senate/House races?
“But look at some of the weights applied to the individual polls in Silvers model. The most current Public Policy Polling survey, released Saturday, has Obama up only one point, 4948. That poll is given a weighting under Silvers model of .95201. The PPP poll taken last weekend had Obama up five, 5146. This poll is a week older but has a weighting of 1.15569.
The NBC/Marist Ohio poll conducted twelve days ago has a higher weighting attached to it (1.31395) than eight of the nine polls taken since. The poll from twelve days ago also, coincidentally enough, is Obamas best recent poll in Ohio, because of a Democratic party-identification advantage of eleven points. By contrast, the Rasmussen poll from eight days later, which has a larger sample size, more recent field dates, but has an even party-identification split between Democrats and Republicans, has a weighting of .88826, lower than any other poll taken in the last nine days.”
They “claim” he once predicted a GOP sweep in the Senate in 2010, but most of his wrong 2010 predictions have been erased, forgotten, swept under the rug, etc.
Nate/Chris Matthews/Larry Sinclair/obama
all the same
Do you recall any of his big mistakes off hand?
What's interesting about this wet-behind-the-ears kid is that he's ruining his rep at the beginning of his career -- Zogby at least squeezed 20 years of $ out of the system first before shitting the nest...
Silver is a leftist first.....that’s why he’s off-balance atthis point, to say the least.
I’ll admit, I didn’t pay much attention during 08 because it was pretty clear once the financial crisis happened, it was all over for the McCain/Palin ticket. Fast foward to now and all I see is mentions of this Nate Silver character all over the internet. I don’t see why people care about his model. He’ll either be right or he’ll be wrong just like all sorts of other people in the business.
Averaging dated polls into a bad cum is stupid enough; saucing them with weights is just crazy. He doesn’t even realize he’s the Judas Goat and it ain’t just gonna fade away ...
I think I would enjoy seeing Silver getting his comeuppance almost as much as the Kenyan getting his.
Come on Mitt. Make it happen!