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Halfway through the debate when it became abundantly clear what Obama was doing, it occurred to me that Romney is protecting a lead. That means that Romney does not think he is one or two points behind in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, it means that Romney's internal polling is telling him that he is ahead. One does not play it safe if one is behind or if one is tied. Tied is not enough too coast with because it is too risky when one faces the power of the president's incumbency.

Romney's internal polling gave him the confidence to debate the way he did. All Romney wanted to do was make tonight a non event. Only a winner passes up an opportunity. A winner says, why take the risk?

I have no doubt that Romney knows he is sitting on a bankable lead at least in Ohio and probably as a backup in Wisconsin and Iowa and he gets over-the-top either way because he has already sewn up Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

If these assumptions about the subsidiary states Florida North Carolina Virginia New Hampshire and Colorado are true, Obama is not in a position to stop Romney with just one state because Romney has 261 electoral college votes, he must run the board. He must win Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and one of either Nevada or Iowa. Considered in this light, Obama's task is daunting indeed, especially for someone who is feet are stuck in tar and cannot get above 47%.

Consider in the light of geography, Romney's strategy is more than reasonable.

The only two two big states O has sewn up are NY and CA.

And if his numbers take a fall, WA and OR could even come into play along with NM, MI and possibly NJ and ME.

Obama cannot afford any further erosion in his numbers. He cannot lose more ground.

Romney on the other hand is in the catbird’s seat. He can decide where to campaign, pick targets of opportunity and force O to defend terrain he must keep to prevent the election from turning into an electoral rout.

No matter how one looks at it, there are no upsides for Obama this year.

I think your analysis is spot on. You can’t be up 2 or so nationally and down 2 in Ohio. Ohio has patterned the national numbers within a point or two dating back to like Carter/Ford.

I think FL, CO and NC are near-locks and VA is strongly trending Romney.

NH and IA are slight leans.

Obama pretty much needs to sweep the remaining board to win. Romney takes Ohio and it’s over.

There was a reason Romney mentioned Pennsylvania and Wisconsin when personalizing to questions to voters today. Those states are true battleground states. As they should be when an incumbent can’t break 50% with two weeks left in an election cycle,

“Halfway through the debate when it became abundantly clear what Obama was doing, it occurred to me that Romney is protecting a lead. That means that Romney does not think he is one or two points behind in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, it means that Romney’s internal polling is telling him that he is ahead. One does not play it safe if one is behind or if one is tied. Tied is not enough too coast with because it is too risky when one faces the power of the president’s incumbency.

Romney’s internal polling gave him the confidence to debate the way he did. All Romney wanted to do was make tonight a non event. Only a winner passes up an opportunity. A winner says, why take the risk?

If these assumptions about the subsidiary states Florida North Carolina Virginia New Hampshire and Colorado are true, Obama is not in a position to stop Romney with just one state because Romney has 261 electoral college votes, he must run the board. He must win Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and one of either Nevada or Iowa. Considered in this light, Obama’s task is daunting indeed, especially for someone who is feet are stuck in tar and cannot get above 47%.

Consider in the light of geography, Romney’s strategy is more than reasonable.”

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS. Worth repeating in full. Well put, nathanbedford.

Excellent analysis Nathanbedford! Best critique of strategic analysis I have read thus far. Obama appeared to me to be extremely stressed. He had almost a look of being deranged in his eyes. There is definite panic and uncertainty going on there. I think his claim that China is an adversary in the same sentence with Iran when discussing America’s biggest great was a hug gaffe. Romney caught it and handled it beautifully, I wonder if the media will pick up on it...

I agree with your analysis.

You have been more spot on with these debates than any of the talking heads in the media.

Romney played the 3rd debate as if he has a sizeable lead.

Despite the debate, you can tell Romney is winning by how the Obama campaign acts, how the liberal media media acts, and how liberals are acting around the internet.

By the publicized numbers, the race is close statistically— nationally and in the battlegrounds— and the only people in a panic are liberals.

When you see the Romney campaign, Fox News, and Free Republic calm, cool and collected and the Obama campaign and the liberal media in hysterics, you know the jig is up.