Posted on 10/24/2012 2:53:54 PM PDT by Perdogg
The new CNN/Time poll. What are we going to do with it? The top-line of the poll says Obama leads by 5, 49 to 44 but everything underneath says that poll has little basis in reality.
Independents
In 2008 candidate Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage point while winning Independents by 8 points. In today’s CNN/Time poll, Mitt Romney leads with Independents by an incredible 13-points but is down overall by 5-points. That is simply not plausible.
Party ID
The party ID in this poll was D +9 (Dem 37, Rep 28, Ind 29). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will exceed Obama’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used. This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D +5 making this D +9 that much more unrealistic.
Early voting and the likely voter screen
Early voting is creating a unique problem for polling organizations this year. Since Democrats tend to vote early, you see the Democrat candidate typically leading by wide margins in early voting. According to the CNN survey “respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.” So we know upfront in early voting there is an overwhelming number of Democrats.
When it comes to polls, all voters who said they already voted make it through the likely voter screen and end up in the final results. Approximately 17 percent of the respondents were early voters while 83% had yet to vote. This means a 17% segment of those polled are guaranteed to make it through the likely voter screen and we know that group supported President Obama by a 2-to-1 margin. This inherently over-samples Democrats which practically guarantees a favorable result for Democrats. The problem with early voting and polling ahead of election day is the results will skew in favor of the party with the higher early turnout, in this case the Democrats. That’s one of the ways you end up with a party ID of D +9 when there is no chance of that turnout occurring on election day.
It was nice of CNN and Time to spend the money to run a poll of all-important Ohio, but I think this poll did little more give false hope to Democrats who are likely in for a rude awakening on election night thanks to unrealistic polls like this one.
Ohio elected a conservative republican governor in 2010. So tell me what the 2010 turn out was...then we will have the true story
The more they skew these polls, the more they will hurt come Nov. 7.
Most polling joints at least make an effort to get accurate when they know an election is near to check their work against.
These guys seem to have completely given up worrying about their reputations.
Wish this thing would hurry up. Im going to be sick watching these polls the next two weeks
Then why should they bother showing up?
bs
So it this the deal? We lose Ohio, we lose? Thats it????!!!!
So it this the deal? We lose Ohio, we lose? Thats it????!!!!
The Romney campaign has the internal poll info. Unfortunately, peasants like me are not privy to them but...I would guess that it’s looking much better than this worthless Time poll.
nope...without Ohio Romney still has three different ways to win...it was explained this AM on F&F’s
Do these people even care if they have any credibility left?
They can’t get the numbers they want so they just keep increasing the D’s until they feel good about it. +9 Dems? Adding more dems doesn’t translate to voters. I hope everyone remembers this well for the next election because I bet they change course right before the election to appear accurate.
I am convinced Romney is much further ahead of the Kenyan in Ohio, otherwise they would not need to be so deceptive.
see if you can follow this...
Romney will win Ohio by 2.5 or more.
2008 total early votes 10,400
2012 total early votes 2,200
Not only are the total early votes down by 80%, but from this article we get what appears to be bad news, that Ds are getting 2/3 of the early vote. But wait! that means that of that 2,200, the Ds only got 1,400!
Got new for ya: that won't do it to win OH.
So in other words, CNN/Time finally got the sample right?
As I explained before, assuming Romney has a lead nationally, he is probably winning Ohio.
a. If Romney flips ME-CD2, IN, FL,VA,NC,and CO and all of the NE-CD2 and wins the McCain States, he would have 258.
b. If Romney then flips IA, NV, NH, this will take him to 274.
I believe that (a) will happen.
IA, and NH are likley and NV would be difficult, but possible.
WHAT ticks me off is the fact that FREAKIN Oiho is holding the rest of the damn nation hostage!! Wish Texas was the deciding factor...no doubt RED all the way!! BUNCH OF OIHO IDIOTS! UGH! Between the mediaWHORES and those idiot voters they are giving the BEAST FROM HELL and his cronies a LIFE line! God help us...please I encourage everyone here to pray and fast, I CAN’T DO IT ALONE!! FOR THE SAKE OF OUR NATION..PLEASE! I’ll start the 4:00am in the morning prayer link if you join me! WHO wants the 4:30am slot??
Here’s this poll with the 2010 exit poll party id applied to it.
Romney
51.61%* (original: 44%)
Obama
48.65%* (original: 49%)
*Resampled voter identification with data from Ohio Party ID in 2010 (Exit Poll)
Original Party Identification: 37.00% Dem, 28.00% Rep, Other 35.00%
Ohio Party ID in 2010 (Exit Poll): 36.00% Dem, 37.00% Rep, Other 28.00%
http://pollmashing.com/poll/10/D87A2E6E-AD01-D2EA-8620-3FD71775261F#.UIhntml24iU
ah there’s the key... don’t watch the polls. read a book. cook some comfort food. maybe watch some three stooges or old black and white movies. maybe even go for a walk. we are officially in the full tilt mud slinging season and sometimes it just isn’t fun to watch
No.
Thanks LS I appreciate your work and time. I hope people here are paying attention.
“Romney will win Ohio by 2.5 or more.”
I agree.
that’s probably going to happen.
Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, Cincinnati...The problem is the large Black population in those inter cities. Unfortunately, they will vote mostly on color... the rest of the state will vote Romney – he has a chance... I’m praying.
Compared to a week ago, and based on the data you are privy to for OH, are you?
1. More confident
2. Less confident
3. No change
Ras: Ohio tied.
The Romney campaign should not to a court and challenge every early vote in Ohio.
Wasn’t CNN/Time poll one of the polls measured to be the least accurate in the past few years?
“Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, Cincinnati...The problem is the large Black population in those inter cities. Unfortunately, they will vote mostly on color...”
Steps can be taken to ameliorate those factors with diligent and aggressive poll watchers and challenging all the early voting in those areas.
driving home listening to WABC transitioning from Hannity to Levin, the top of the hour news began with Obama leading in Ohio by five. they are trying to depress our turnout.
Thanks for the info. You better let your number cruncher cool down for a while.
“Approximately 17 percent of the respondents were early voters while 83% had yet to vote. “
As of the 23rd about 10% of Ohio registered voters had voted.
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/mediaCenter/2012/2012-10-23.aspx
That’s a big difference.
Dead Man Walking: Ohio Votes From The Grave
Posted by Steve Schippert
Published: November 3, 2008 - 12:27 PM
In Ohio's razor thin race, Dead Voters Submit Ballots From Beyond.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/11/03/dead-man-walking-ohio-votes-from-the-grave.php
“8,099 of Cuyahoga County's (Cleveland) 24,472 provisional ballots ruled invalid
The Cleveland Plain Dealer ^ | November 23, 2004 | Diane Solov
Posted on Tuesday, November 23, 2004 8:09:41 AM by oberon01610
“The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections voted Monday to reject one out of three of the 24,472 provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 2 election.
The bulk of the 8,099 invalidated ballots were determined to have been cast by nonregistered voters or registered voters who cast their ballots in the wrong precinct. Voters received provisional ballots at the polls on Election Day if their names did not appear on the voter rolls...
As county elections workers stood watch over a hand truck bearing 10 boxes stuffed with invalidated ballots, an ensemble of lawyers, professors and others who were active in voter registration drives made it clear that the board's decision won't quell the lingering disquiet about the possibility that some legitimate votes won't be counted...
“I find it inconceivable that over 5,000 voters in the county would wait an hour in the pouring rain to vote if they haven't registered,” said Dr. Norm Robbins, a neurosciences professor at Case Western Reserve University who volunteered for the Greater Cleveland Voter Registration Coalition.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1286584/posts
By Ben Fearnow
October 11, 2012 10:23 AM
http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2012/10/11/pile-of-manure-dumped-on-an-ohio-democratic-headquarters/
Kerry couldn't pull enough dead/fraudulent votes from Cuyahoga County and lost as a result. But it WAS ready to go.
And 13 of Ohio's 18 House seats are currently held by Republicans.
As of the 23rd about 10% of Ohio registered voters had voted.
2 explanations:
1. Only 65-70% of registered voters are going to vote, so that 10% of registered is almost 14% of all who will vote.
2. I presume the 10% are voted the BOE's have received and don't count those that are being mailed in (the votes in the mail)
Plus the margin of error
So, those aren't that off.
I also think it will be a Pyrrhic victory - because his overcommitment to Ohio will cost him Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and maybe even Nevada and Michigan.
The wife and I just decided we are going to go ahead and vote early here in the next few days.
Our household will give RR 3 early votes in Iowa to offset Obambi’s big “vote early” campaign.
disagree.
Excellent!
Thanks was thinking a registered, not likely voter, poll.
It’s high but reasonable.
They are really delusional.
Ohio is going GOP.
Isn’t the real party turnout something between the 2008 and 2010 numbers? That would place the race in a dead heat.
I concur, and I posted a bit of my thinking as to why in another thread:
What has been ignored in all the discussion about polling is that, historically, the GOP candidate's share of the vote in Ohio correlates very closely with his share of the national vote.
In 2008, McCain earned 46.5% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 47.3%. In 2004, George W. Bush earned 50.7% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 51%. In 2000, George W. Bush earned about 48% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 52%.
You can go back even further, but the results are the same - GOP candidates tend to equal or overperform their national popular vote percentage. I feel confident in predicting that if Romney is leading in the national polls on Election Day, he will carry Ohio.
I hate to disagree, but Ohio is far more favorable to Romney than is Pennsylvania or Michigan. I remain very confident that Romney will carry Ohio, and believe he will not carry Pennsylvania.
They're doing this so after Romney wins they can propagandize the meme that he stole the election.
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