Obama, Romney Tied in Ohio

RasmussenReports ^ | October 26, 2012

[Steelfish]

Obama, Romney Tied in Ohio - A new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted the day after the final presidential debate finds President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48%. Ohio voters trust Romney more than Obama to handle the economy, but trust the president more on National Security.

[LS]

Well, let's check the #s: Adrian Gray has Rs leading early voting by .01 with 250,000 cast x 16 (5m less 1 m early votes=4m) or a lead of 1.6%. But you have to subtract something like 70-85,000 absentee advantage Ds had . So that leaves us about 45000 short. However, these are ONLY early voting stats ( which Rs lost huge in 08). If you figure Rs have a propensity to turn out on Election Day, then add 46,000 votes for every 1% advantage Rs have on Nov. 6. And then if Romney has ANY indies, they would pad the lead even more.

In short, Rs need a slight turnout advantage on Election Day itself to win (McCain got that, so I don't think that will be hard.) just a tiny percent advantage with Indies will get you to 52%.

[LS]

Guess he’s wrong, huh? Adrian Gray showing Rs very slightly AHEAD in early voting. That points to a solid Romney win along the lines of 3-4%.

[napscoordinator]

These polling outfits are an absolute joke.

Rasmussen has a 100 percent accurate rating. I wouldn’t be so quick to ignore Rasmussen. Sure some of the polling places are a joke, but not Rasmussen.

[fortheDeclaration]

Thank you. Nov 6th is going to be very entertaining watching Ohio go to Romney.

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

I will be a ten year old waitin on Christmas morning.

[LS]

My math may be wrong on the good side. I assumed an equal number from each county, but if, say Wood Co is up .01% that would be a smaller # of cut all votes than if Franklin is up .01%. It doesn’t change the % but could mean that Romney could conceivably “have it won” before anyone votes on Election Day, given that Ds don’t have enough early votes “in he bank” to. Cover normal GOP turnout.