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Hurricane SANDY Forecast Discussion
National Hurrican Center ^ | October 28, AD 2012 | Staff

Posted on 10/28/2012 4:52:17 AM PDT by lightman

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: delmarva; hurricane; newjersey; sandy
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AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES

What is more "disruptive"--a change in terminology or the most densely populated part of the US unprepared for what has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" because they are not hearing "Hurricane Watch" or "Hurricane Warning"?

This is headed to be Øbama's Katrina!

1 posted on 10/28/2012 4:52:28 AM PDT by lightman
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To: lightman

URRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT
FIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.
HOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT. ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL
SOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL
IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING.

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS SANDY INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD. AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


2 posted on 10/28/2012 4:55:03 AM PDT by lightman (If the Patriarchate of the East held a state like the Vatican I would apply for political asylum.)
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To: All

An administration that would lie about the threat to an Embassy would also lie about the meterological threat to the East Coast.


3 posted on 10/28/2012 4:56:14 AM PDT by lightman (If the Patriarchate of the East held a state like the Vatican I would apply for political asylum.)
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To: lightman
LThis is headed to be Øbama's Katrina!

Didn't know there were that many cities below sea level, surrounded by levies, with stupid people who ignored warnings 4 to 5 day in advance, all up and down the east coast.

If Benghazi doesn't hurt Obama, a stupid storm won't either.

4 posted on 10/28/2012 4:58:40 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: lightman

Politics aside where I live, hardly anyone is taking this storm seriously. I dont think people are quite understanding its going to be high wind, lots of rain for some 36-48 hrs. Hell some of the people I work with dont even know a storm is coming.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 5:03:35 AM PDT by eak3
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To: lightman

They’re warning us plenty about Sandy here in the swamps of Delaware, where we expected to take a direct hit.

If I hear one more “expert” tell me to buy extra batteries I am going to scream.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 5:06:57 AM PDT by Fishtalk (http://patfish.blogspot.com/)
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To: lightman

Foxnews is saying they’ll have 10-12 hours of 75-90 mph winds in Manhatten. Going to be lots of broken glass.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 5:08:13 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: hattend; lightman

“If Benghazi doesn’t hurt Obama, a stupid storm won’t either.”

The LSM will blame this “FrankenStorm” hype on FEMA, Romney, Bush’s evil weather machine or something else, and paint Øbummer’s photo-ops all over their front pages. I doubt he’ll get a drop of blame for anything. Wouldn’t surprise me if the “Bush-FEMA-Katrina” comparisons will again get trotted-out of the closet, and Romney/Ryan get blamed somehow. They’ll figure out a way to do it.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 5:13:23 AM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Fishtalk

How about a non-expert?

Buy lots of ice cream. YMMV


9 posted on 10/28/2012 5:19:53 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: driftdiver; lightman
I worked in the "canyons" of Midtown Manhattan for 17yrs, and that'll be one of the deadliest places on earth during this storm, if those winds impact the buildings' glass. You'd also be surprised how much hardware, roof gardens etc is on top of those buildings, which could be blown loose and come down.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 5:21:33 AM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: driftdiver

“Foxnews is saying they’ll have 10-12 hours of 75-90 mph winds in Manhatten. Going to be lots of broken glass.”

Worse, high winds mean storm surges. nyc is on the water. How much of the electrical/cable/water and transportation infrastructure is underground?

And then let’s remember that this is the liberal and effete northeast that we’re talking about. Not the south that normally gets these storms and is better prepared. It’ll be mass chaos in two-three days when the government doesn’t show up with fresh goat cheese pizza and perrier.


11 posted on 10/28/2012 5:22:05 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: carriage_hill

I’ve never lived there but have sat in Schnippers on the first floor of the NY Times building watching chairs get blown down the street. That was not during a hurricane.


12 posted on 10/28/2012 5:23:30 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: lightman

13 posted on 10/28/2012 5:30:32 AM PDT by JoeProBono (A closed mouth gathers no feet - Mater tua caligas exercitus gerit ;-{)
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To: driftdiver

There is some kind of atmosphereic effect where winds around buildins are magnified at the street level. I wonder if any of those east side libs were get blown into the east river?


14 posted on 10/28/2012 5:33:44 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: carriage_hill

Oooooh. Not Good. Plus keep in mind that the buildings will tend to amplify the wind effect. I guess we’ll find out how much common sense the denizens of manhattan have. Not much I reckon.


15 posted on 10/28/2012 5:35:18 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: RKBA Democrat

“Worse, high winds mean storm surges. nyc is on the water.”

I heard at least 5-8 feet? Prepping here in North East Jersey, got the generators ready, food, water, supplies.


16 posted on 10/28/2012 5:35:56 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: lightman

In the spirit of Katrina, let me be the first to say, “ people shouldn’t live along the coast and in places where a hurricane would hit.” s


17 posted on 10/28/2012 5:36:10 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God! ROLL TIDE!!)
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Half the models now show the storm paralleling the East Coast, heading further NE then going almost straight North to Nova Scotia. Yesterday all models had it hitting the US Northeast.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2012&storm=18

18 posted on 10/28/2012 5:36:39 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: hattend

* Didn’t know there were that many cities below sea level,surrounded by levies,with stupid people who ignored warnings 4 to 5 day in advance,all up and down the east coast.*

The “land mass between NO and AL” is not below sea level


19 posted on 10/28/2012 5:39:39 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God! ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: eak3

What state are you in?

Here in tidewater VA we’ve been getting rain and wind since yesterday afternoon. And we’re not even close to where the storm center is at.


20 posted on 10/28/2012 5:40:01 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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