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Hurricane SANDY Forecast Discussion
National Hurrican Center ^ | October 28, AD 2012 | Staff

Posted on 10/28/2012 4:52:17 AM PDT by lightman

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: delmarva; hurricane; newjersey; sandy
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AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES

What is more "disruptive"--a change in terminology or the most densely populated part of the US unprepared for what has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" because they are not hearing "Hurricane Watch" or "Hurricane Warning"?

This is headed to be Øbama's Katrina!

1 posted on 10/28/2012 4:52:28 AM PDT by lightman
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To: lightman

URRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT
FIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.
HOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT. ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL
SOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL
IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING.

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS SANDY INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD. AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


2 posted on 10/28/2012 4:55:03 AM PDT by lightman (If the Patriarchate of the East held a state like the Vatican I would apply for political asylum.)
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To: All

An administration that would lie about the threat to an Embassy would also lie about the meterological threat to the East Coast.


3 posted on 10/28/2012 4:56:14 AM PDT by lightman (If the Patriarchate of the East held a state like the Vatican I would apply for political asylum.)
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To: lightman
LThis is headed to be Øbama's Katrina!

Didn't know there were that many cities below sea level, surrounded by levies, with stupid people who ignored warnings 4 to 5 day in advance, all up and down the east coast.

If Benghazi doesn't hurt Obama, a stupid storm won't either.

4 posted on 10/28/2012 4:58:40 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: lightman

Politics aside where I live, hardly anyone is taking this storm seriously. I dont think people are quite understanding its going to be high wind, lots of rain for some 36-48 hrs. Hell some of the people I work with dont even know a storm is coming.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 5:03:35 AM PDT by eak3
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To: lightman

They’re warning us plenty about Sandy here in the swamps of Delaware, where we expected to take a direct hit.

If I hear one more “expert” tell me to buy extra batteries I am going to scream.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 5:06:57 AM PDT by Fishtalk (http://patfish.blogspot.com/)
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To: lightman

Foxnews is saying they’ll have 10-12 hours of 75-90 mph winds in Manhatten. Going to be lots of broken glass.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 5:08:13 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: hattend; lightman

“If Benghazi doesn’t hurt Obama, a stupid storm won’t either.”

The LSM will blame this “FrankenStorm” hype on FEMA, Romney, Bush’s evil weather machine or something else, and paint Øbummer’s photo-ops all over their front pages. I doubt he’ll get a drop of blame for anything. Wouldn’t surprise me if the “Bush-FEMA-Katrina” comparisons will again get trotted-out of the closet, and Romney/Ryan get blamed somehow. They’ll figure out a way to do it.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 5:13:23 AM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Fishtalk

How about a non-expert?

Buy lots of ice cream. YMMV


9 posted on 10/28/2012 5:19:53 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: driftdiver; lightman
I worked in the "canyons" of Midtown Manhattan for 17yrs, and that'll be one of the deadliest places on earth during this storm, if those winds impact the buildings' glass. You'd also be surprised how much hardware, roof gardens etc is on top of those buildings, which could be blown loose and come down.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 5:21:33 AM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: driftdiver

“Foxnews is saying they’ll have 10-12 hours of 75-90 mph winds in Manhatten. Going to be lots of broken glass.”

Worse, high winds mean storm surges. nyc is on the water. How much of the electrical/cable/water and transportation infrastructure is underground?

And then let’s remember that this is the liberal and effete northeast that we’re talking about. Not the south that normally gets these storms and is better prepared. It’ll be mass chaos in two-three days when the government doesn’t show up with fresh goat cheese pizza and perrier.


11 posted on 10/28/2012 5:22:05 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: carriage_hill

I’ve never lived there but have sat in Schnippers on the first floor of the NY Times building watching chairs get blown down the street. That was not during a hurricane.


12 posted on 10/28/2012 5:23:30 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: lightman

13 posted on 10/28/2012 5:30:32 AM PDT by JoeProBono (A closed mouth gathers no feet - Mater tua caligas exercitus gerit ;-{)
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To: driftdiver

There is some kind of atmosphereic effect where winds around buildins are magnified at the street level. I wonder if any of those east side libs were get blown into the east river?


14 posted on 10/28/2012 5:33:44 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: carriage_hill

Oooooh. Not Good. Plus keep in mind that the buildings will tend to amplify the wind effect. I guess we’ll find out how much common sense the denizens of manhattan have. Not much I reckon.


15 posted on 10/28/2012 5:35:18 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: RKBA Democrat

“Worse, high winds mean storm surges. nyc is on the water.”

I heard at least 5-8 feet? Prepping here in North East Jersey, got the generators ready, food, water, supplies.


16 posted on 10/28/2012 5:35:56 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: lightman

In the spirit of Katrina, let me be the first to say, “ people shouldn’t live along the coast and in places where a hurricane would hit.” s


17 posted on 10/28/2012 5:36:10 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God! ROLL TIDE!!)
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Half the models now show the storm paralleling the East Coast, heading further NE then going almost straight North to Nova Scotia. Yesterday all models had it hitting the US Northeast.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2012&storm=18

18 posted on 10/28/2012 5:36:39 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: hattend

* Didn’t know there were that many cities below sea level,surrounded by levies,with stupid people who ignored warnings 4 to 5 day in advance,all up and down the east coast.*

The “land mass between NO and AL” is not below sea level


19 posted on 10/28/2012 5:39:39 AM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God! ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: eak3

What state are you in?

Here in tidewater VA we’ve been getting rain and wind since yesterday afternoon. And we’re not even close to where the storm center is at.


20 posted on 10/28/2012 5:40:01 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult

Interesting. Thanks for that update. I still think it will head west but maybe not as far west as the current forecast.


21 posted on 10/28/2012 5:42:19 AM PDT by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: lightman
If like me and you'd rather skip all the middlemen. Go right to the source National Data Buoy Center
22 posted on 10/28/2012 5:42:26 AM PDT by NamVet71MP
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To: lightman

Why are they considered in denial?

The assessment seems rational and reasonable to me


23 posted on 10/28/2012 5:42:30 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: lightman

The problem is pretty simple, there’s a dual bureaucracy with the hurricane center and storm center with duplication and overlap. But the hurricane center which has the better handle on the storm is not allowed to keep predicting or even give out advance warnings for a non-hurricane. Sandy has already transitioned into a non-hurrcane (low pressure, large wind field)


24 posted on 10/28/2012 5:45:01 AM PDT by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: Fishtalk

“They’re warning us plenty about Sandy here in the swamps of Delaware, where we expected to take a direct hit.”

Big question is whether your electrical utility does tree trimming. Here in tidewater VA, they didn’t until after Isabel which pretty much destroyed large chunks of the electrical grid. They got downright militant on the tree trimming after that.


25 posted on 10/28/2012 5:45:33 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult

What??
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif


26 posted on 10/28/2012 5:47:35 AM PDT by VaRepublican (I would propagate taglines but I don't know how. But bloggers do.)
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To: palmer
Sandy has already transitioned into a non-hurrcane (low pressure, large wind field

It has not - the core temperature is still significantly higher than the surrounding air - hence it's still warm core.

27 posted on 10/28/2012 5:49:32 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: driftdiver; All
Does anyone else have the feeling that God might be angry at radical liberals over their convention platform vote?

How many times does a hurricane swerve around Florida at the last min, skip most of the southern Atlantic states, and head straight for the heart of the radical liberal cities?

28 posted on 10/28/2012 5:54:37 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: lightman

From what I’m seeing around my little portion of NJ, folks are taking it very seriously.

We have been preparing since Thursday, gutters cleaned, everything off the deck, huge generator in place, water, toilet paper, milk & bread in house. We have plenty of grilling food and canned goods. Since we don’t live near the coast, we won’t be boarding up the windows.

Please note: We also live in the predominately Republican part of the state and do not rely on the nattering nannies.


29 posted on 10/28/2012 5:54:56 AM PDT by alice_in_bubbaland (When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes mandatory- Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult
Half the models now show the storm paralleling the East Coast, heading further NE then going almost straight North to Nova Scotia. Yesterday all models had it hitting the US Northeast.

Please don't comment on things you don't understand.

The "models" with a miss are very old, very primitive (as old as the 1970s) and/or are variations that do not apply to a system such as Sandy for various complicated reasons. They aren't even looked at by NHC. I actually think they really should stop running them.

The difference between those models and the ones with NJ hits are like the difference between a Commodore 64 and a supercomputer.

Every single legitimate modern model has a hit in New Jersey.

30 posted on 10/28/2012 5:55:15 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Beagle8U

No, I do not believe that is the case, especially after a plane just crashed in Afghanistan with the our troops military ballots.


31 posted on 10/28/2012 5:57:09 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult

This graphic shows a different story.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

While some of those models do, indeed, show the storm staying over the ocean longer and then moving into Nova Scotia, those are hurricane track models. By this time tomorrow Sandy will either be transforming into a mid-latitude cyclone or done with the process. Cold core. Nor’easter. Hurricane track models don’t do well with Nor’easters.

I HOPE is doesn’t take that turn to the west and into the Mid-Atlantic region... especially as I live in Maryland. But it is looking more and more like the models are right on this one.

At least it won’t be cold enough for snow except in the mountains.

Good luck to everyone in the storm’s path... hopefully they will only be fish!


32 posted on 10/28/2012 5:58:18 AM PDT by FUBO (and EFF EWE Al Gore)
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To: Lil Flower
The “land mass between NO and AL” is not below sea level

True, but Bush took most of the flak from NOLA and the stupid people residing therein.

33 posted on 10/28/2012 5:58:53 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: RKBA Democrat

Did they cancel the VA NASCAR race today?


34 posted on 10/28/2012 5:59:24 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Beagle8U
Does anyone else have the feeling that God might be angry at radical liberals over their convention platform vote?

No.

How many times does a hurricane swerve around Florida at the last min, skip most of the southern Atlantic states, and head straight for the heart of the radical liberal cities?

Florida is the most commonly hit state in the US by tropical systems.

Katrina devastated Mississippi.

The last hurricane with 20 Billion dollars + damage was Ike, which hit Texas in 2008.

35 posted on 10/28/2012 6:00:00 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: NamVet71MP

Just looked at that site - they’ve got flashing “tsunami event” for US/Canada West coast, Hawaii, etc.

Low level, minimal damage expected

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/28/tsunami-warning-issued-after-magnitude-77-earthquake-strikes-off-coast-western/


36 posted on 10/28/2012 6:00:00 AM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: Beagle8U

I don’t know. I don’t follow NASCAR. If it’s in Richmond or further west, probably not.


37 posted on 10/28/2012 6:02:51 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: RKBA Democrat; driftdiver; lightman

It’s amazing how the winds are amped-up in those valleys of glass & steel. Back in the 70s & 80s, rooftop gardening was just beginning; now, it’s everywhere. Sheds, water towers, furniture, pots, railings, planters etc etc are very prevalent at way too many bldgs. I’d hope they have some ordinances about securing all that stuff, but I doubt it. But who knows? It’s a debris-raining-down disaster in and of itself, just waiting to happen, in a big blow, like what’s coming. Too many NYC’ers just poo-poo it all; thinking they’ll be okay.

I keep thinking about 9-11-01 when the planes crashed into WTC and the glass/debris came down on all those people. The pics were horrible.


38 posted on 10/28/2012 6:03:05 AM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Strategerist

I’m in south Jersey. The entire lower part of the state is one giant sandbar not too far above sea level. It’ll be very interesting to see how we fair with this thing. We stocked up on batteries and canned and dry food. We filled a fifteen gallon tank with fresh water in case the runoff messes with our city water. No generator. We can read a book for a few days if necessary. We cleared everything out of the yard, but not much more. We’re ready to hunker down for the duration!


39 posted on 10/28/2012 6:06:30 AM PDT by Magnatron
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To: lightman

In the mountains of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia, 1 to 4 inches are expected to be widespread with 4 to 8 inches forecast for elevations above 3,000 feet.

Much colder air moving into the southern Appalachians with strong winds and abundant moisture reaching the area from the remnants of Sandy will combine to generate a strong winter storm. the Weather Service said.

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2012/oct/28/hurricane-sandy-bring-snow-tennessee-mountains/


40 posted on 10/28/2012 6:10:12 AM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: RKBA Democrat
I think Richmond is where it is at. All it takes is rain to cancel the race.
41 posted on 10/28/2012 6:10:41 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: carriage_hill

“I’d hope they have some ordinances about securing all that stuff, but I doubt it. But who knows? It’s a debris-raining-down disaster in and of itself, just waiting to happen, in a big blow, like what’s coming. Too many NYC’ers just poo-poo it all; thinking they’ll be okay.”

Ordinances only go so far, common sense is what is more important. We’ll see if they have enough common sense to secure stuff and stay inside and away from the falling and blowing debris.

What will really stink is for the fire and police. They won’t be able to respond safely. On the hurricane coast it’s pretty straightforward and you’re warned accordingly: you go out when the s is in the process of htf’ing, don’t expect the fire department to come rescue you if you get in trouble. I don’t know how that’ll play out in nyc.


42 posted on 10/28/2012 6:12:46 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: RKBA Democrat
I think Richmond is where it is at. All it takes is rain to cancel the race.
43 posted on 10/28/2012 6:13:09 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Beagle8U

“Does anyone else have the feeling that God might be angry at radical liberals over their convention platform vote?”

It’s absurd statements like that that make it difficult to persuade independents to become conservatives.


44 posted on 10/28/2012 6:17:14 AM PDT by olrtex
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To: lightman

Been raining here in Southern Connecticut since last night. The local University I teach at (Not that one, the other one) is located in a shoreline town and classes were cancelled for Monday and Tuesday last night.

My biggest problem is that I have a small brook in front of my house that will flood my basement during very heavy rains and we have a lot of trees. Lost several during Irene last year.

This time, we’re moving one of our cars out to a near by parking lot with no trees, telephone poles of anything that could come down on it. With Irene, we had two trees take down our power lines which left an electrified tangled mess over our driveway. Luckily, my neighbor let us drive over his front yard so we could get one car out.

Went 9 days without power after Irene. Hoping that this time, we’ll be spared but if we did it before, we can do it again.


45 posted on 10/28/2012 6:20:11 AM PDT by KosmicKitty (WARNING: Hormonally crazed woman ahead!!)
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To: Magnatron
The best investment in storm preparedness a person can make is in a couple Coleman lanterns.

They put off lots of light plus quite a bit of heat. They run a long time on a tank of fuel, and the newer ones will run on unleaded gasoline.

46 posted on 10/28/2012 6:20:41 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: olrtex

You needed a sarc tag to tell that was what it was?


47 posted on 10/28/2012 6:22:23 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: RKBA Democrat

If it’s left up to “common sense”, it’ll be treacherous for fire/police/rescue to even go down there while the winds are above 50mph. Best to wait until all the rooftop debris is down in the streets and navigate around it, or bring in some plows to push it aside. There’s not much “common sense” in NYC; never was, IIRC.


48 posted on 10/28/2012 6:22:23 AM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Strategerist

It has ingested dry air for 24 hours and occluded so a hybrid.


49 posted on 10/28/2012 6:25:11 AM PDT by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: lightman

I just pulled my Romney/Ryan sign in for a few days. Can’t have that blown down the road.


50 posted on 10/28/2012 6:29:45 AM PDT by angcat (ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 & NY YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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