Posted on 10/28/2012 3:37:05 PM PDT by Arthurio
Interesting. That won’t be gameday turnout.
D+8 = Romney win by 5.
So, if Republican turnout in Ohio is worse than it was in 2008 Obama wins.
Ri-i-ight.
So it takes a D+8 sample to give Obama a 1 point lead in Ohio?
Nuff said!
I think ultimately Romney will carry Ohio by 3-4 points.
Gravis is keeping it close. Don’t want to encourage complacency.
Correct. In fact, this is the most pro-Romney Ohio poll I've seen to date. Looking good.
One of them “keep Nate Silver happy” polls.
So, it sounds like early voters are factored into the overall numbers. The fact that early voters are swung so hard toward Obama gives me a great deal of pause about early voting. Seems to me the early voting could create way too many fraud opportunities.
Did I miss it? Where in the article did it say D+8?
No way Dems will +8 over the Repubs. Romney is going to win if this survey is in anyway accurate.
72% of the remainder Independents win no contest.
Oh...and now way, gender gap is +14 Dem, more like +5-8 Dem.
Gender gap the other way will about the same.
question 7
Does anyone know what the actual party breakdown in Ohio is?
They’re using the poll to count early voters. If you look at party affiliation among early voters and project, it’s about 56/43/1, with Obama 56, Romney 43, Other 1.
Note: this doesn’t mean, by itself, that Romney is leading. It’s the D+8 that points that way. If you assume D37 R36 I/O 27 for likely voters, you get about Romney 52.3 Obama 46.5 and Other (more Green than Libertarian in 2012) 1.2. But keep working like it’s a 1 point race in Ohio, because the margin of error/fraud must also be considered.
LOL. So a poll that has 8 points MORE Democrats than Republicans show Obamugabe winning by ONE POINT?!
I’m cool with that. Sounds like the Washington Post Virginia poll.
Why do these pollsters keep releasing unreleastic turnout polls? I mean, I asking asking as a serious question.
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