Posted on 10/28/2012 3:37:05 PM PDT by Arthurio
Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 730 likely voters in Ohio October 27, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups.
Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.
The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report. Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.
The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
· President Barack Obama holds a slim one percentage point lead over Governor Romney, 50 to 49 percent. Only 2 percent are undecided. (Note the figures add up to 101 due to rounding to the nearest whole percentage point.)
· Senator Brown also holds a slim one point lead over his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, 48 to 47 percent. 5 percent of Ohio voters are undecided in this race.
· Early voters clearly favor the Democratic candidates. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 28 percentage points among the 20 percent of early voters surveyed, 63 to 35 percent. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a similar 26-point margin, 61 to 35 percent.
· The likely voters who have not yet cast ballots in Ohio preferred the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 6 percentage points with these voters (52 to 46 percent), while Josh Mandel leads with these voters by 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).
· This survey shows a 17 percentage point gender gap in the presidential race and a 15 point gap in the Senate race in Ohio. A majority of men favor Governor Romney and Josh Mandel, while a majority of women favor President Obama and Senator Brown.
Interesting. That won’t be gameday turnout.
D+8 = Romney win by 5.
So, if Republican turnout in Ohio is worse than it was in 2008 Obama wins.
Ri-i-ight.
So it takes a D+8 sample to give Obama a 1 point lead in Ohio?
Nuff said!
I think ultimately Romney will carry Ohio by 3-4 points.
Gravis is keeping it close. Don’t want to encourage complacency.
Correct. In fact, this is the most pro-Romney Ohio poll I've seen to date. Looking good.
One of them “keep Nate Silver happy” polls.
So, it sounds like early voters are factored into the overall numbers. The fact that early voters are swung so hard toward Obama gives me a great deal of pause about early voting. Seems to me the early voting could create way too many fraud opportunities.
Did I miss it? Where in the article did it say D+8?
No way Dems will +8 over the Repubs. Romney is going to win if this survey is in anyway accurate.
72% of the remainder Independents win no contest.
Oh...and now way, gender gap is +14 Dem, more like +5-8 Dem.
Gender gap the other way will about the same.
question 7
Does anyone know what the actual party breakdown in Ohio is?
They’re using the poll to count early voters. If you look at party affiliation among early voters and project, it’s about 56/43/1, with Obama 56, Romney 43, Other 1.
Note: this doesn’t mean, by itself, that Romney is leading. It’s the D+8 that points that way. If you assume D37 R36 I/O 27 for likely voters, you get about Romney 52.3 Obama 46.5 and Other (more Green than Libertarian in 2012) 1.2. But keep working like it’s a 1 point race in Ohio, because the margin of error/fraud must also be considered.
LOL. So a poll that has 8 points MORE Democrats than Republicans show Obamugabe winning by ONE POINT?!
I’m cool with that. Sounds like the Washington Post Virginia poll.
Why do these pollsters keep releasing unreleastic turnout polls? I mean, I asking asking as a serious question.
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