It's all over but the crying part 2, why the media isn't telling you the truth (Ohio)

Bill Spetrino Blog ^ | 10/28/12 | Bill Spetrino

[tatown]

This guy is supposedly as familiar with OH politics as anyone in the state.

[tatown]

Ping

[polkajello]

excellent article

[polkajello]

excellent article

[arrogantsob]

Certainly sounds goods.

[apillar]

This sounds pretty similar to what Karl Rove was saying on the Fox Sunday show this morning. Essentially, because of the sheer number of democrats that have dropped off the voter rolls since 2008, even if Romney did exactly the same as McCain did in 2008 Obama’s margin would drop from 450,000 to 50,000. So all Romney needs to do is pick up a few hundred more votes per county than McCain did, (or maybe none at all if Obama’s turnout is even slightly lower than 2008). Rove said the polls aren’t taking this into account and still using the voter rolls from 2008 for their analysis.

[sickoflibs]

Ohio has this prize Nina Turner as Ohio State Senator . She is a regular barking in a rage on the Dem channel about 'voter suppression' almost every night now. She would make a great scary Halloween costume. Like something that comes out on a full Moon.

[tatown]

Did Rove project Mitt the likely winner yet?

[volunbeer]

There are real factors that are difficult for polls to reflect or capture assuming they are trying to tell the truth. There is also the 2008 turnout template that the media continues to use, despite the overwhelming 2010 turnout that led to a historic sweep of the house. I think there are other factors the polls don’t seem to weigh.

The economy voters - Romney has stolen the Clinton mantra of the economy and polls show a widening gap - has to be worth a few points.

The enthusiasm gap - the enthusiasm for Obama is not even remotely close to the “hope and change” 4 years ago - has to be worth a few points even if it is just part-time rats and independents who choose not to vote. I think all of us know plenty of former Obama voters who are not supporting him now.

I also believe the voter fraud gap is going to be measurable in Ohio. Based on my recollection, I think Acorn was huge in the last election in the larger Ohio cities and they really got out a huge vote that led to some of the numbers he gave. Acorn still exists, but it is a shadow of what it was. I believe that means less fraudulent voting - might be worth a point or two.

I am optimistic. Good write up and FRegards.

[MAexile]

Ohio has selected the winner EVERY year except in 1960.

That point could be argued...

[hinckley buzzard]

I agree with this view. He has the basics right. Ohio is pretty secure. The media is holding up hopes for the 'rats in Ohio to prevent a total collapse of the entire obama campaign. Once the people realize Ohio is gone, it's over for the 'rats everywhere.

[SamAdams76]

I think MSM is conspiring to keep Ohio close (with bogus polls) in order to tie up Romney's resources there. Obama can still win re-election without Ohio but if Romney manages to win WI, IA and CO, he will more than offset it and get 273 EVs (provided he also picks up FL, VA, NC and IN which appears to be virtually a lock at this time).

If Obama conceded Ohio to Romney, then Romney would only need 4 more EVs to win (NH) even if he failed to pick up WI, IA, or CO.

This is why the MSM media is scared to death to show Romney ahead in Ohio. For by doing that, they have for all intents and purposes conceded the election to Romney. Ohio is truly Obama's firewall and they will cling to it all the way to election day.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[The_Reader_David]

So who is this bloke who doesn’t know the distinction in usage between “less” and “fewer” and uses singular verbs with numbers meant as collections of person, and why should we pay attention to his views?

[Perdogg]

More importantly, The GOP candidate who has won the popular votes has overperformed in OH an average of 3.61% above the final national number.

[tatown]

Who knows. There seem to be plenty of dipshits in here that trip all over themselves with poll results from propagandists like PPP so this is simply another view from a dude in the battlezone. As far as his English goes, who really gives a shit?

[snarkytart]

We’ll find out in 9 days. Either we’re gonna be serving crow or, we’ll be eating it.
:)

[Perdogg]

I think now there is a new emphases by the Obama campaign for FL. It is a Hail Mary. Some one is now messing with the intrade FL bet

[AU72]

I agree with the analysis however I fear that the Obama campaign is using massive fraud in Ohio with phony registrations, early voting, busing in union apparatchiks, and sowing the IBM phrase FUD, Feat Uncertainty and Doubt.

How much phony votes can they gin up to overcome the real gap. I think they have calculated 150,000 + so we need 200,000 to factor that out.

[berkeleyman81]

This is nice to read, but most of it sounds anecdotal. If there are so fewer voters in these counties, where did they go? If they moved within state, they’d still count the same. Also, the ground game of Obama is insane. I think it will almost certainly be very close, possibly recount.