Skip to comments.ADP Changes Methodology of Job-Counting; One Analyst Thinks The Change Suggests That Friday's.
Posted on 10/31/2012 12:49:01 PM PDT by Perdogg
Assuming the BLS even releases data on Friday, which they're still hedging about.
ADP is a big payroll-service firm which releases its own assessment of job growth (or job losses), based partly on its own data.
Their new methodology occasioned a revision to their already-reported September figures.
ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation [in September] at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month. ...
The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.
"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."
I kind of hate posting expectations-game things like this. If a guy says it might be a disaster, then any non-disaster figure becomes a "win" for Obama.
Still, it's so grabby a quote I have to publish it.
But let's all remember the sudden appearance of almost a million new jobs last month, indicating a torrid pace of jobs growth that somehow managed to not show up anywhere else in America besides BLS' poll.
There’s no way the Communist director of the BLS will allow the unemployment number to be any higher than 7.8% before the election. If anything, it will magically decrease a couple of percentage points.
OK, I read this to mean the new method will make Obama’s numbers look even worse.
I’m actually not happy with that, I would prefer that the methodology not be changed right before the election, at worst, I’d like to see a side-by-side comparison of the old and new methods.
Can’t say I’d be disappointed in the slightest if this results in Obama losing. (Ecstatic is the word that comes to mind) But I will say that a consistent baseline is preferable.
He who lives by fudged numbers, dies by fudged numbers.
My guess is that any drop in the number will met with extreme skepticism.
The numbers will be bogus to help Obama, like they always are.
I could see it as low as 7.5% or as high as 8.0%. It seems that many unemployed people have started taking part time jobs to make ends meet -- that's the big 'improvement' in the unemployement rate. And companies have been letting go full time workers and hiring part timers to take their place - that reduces the unemployment rate(!)
I'm sure it will...
The ADP numbers are actually the ones the BLS will (eventually) use to "correct" their own household survey, as this chart from the Federal Reserve shows. Take a look at the month that has one of the largest discrepancies between the two: September 2012. ADP doesn't have anywhere near the fluctuations (can't be manipulated by bad Census surveys, either) that the Household Survey has.
The ADP numbers track very reliably to true growth. We are creating around 100-120,000 jobs or fewer per month and that's what you expect from 2% GDP or lower.
My prediction for Friday is +72,000
yes, in the last jobs report BLS specifically said that the drop in unemployment was driven by a massive increase in what they called “involuntarily part-time workers”
That part was roundly ignored by the MSM
Exactly! He would all but be conceding the election is the number is negative. Not going to happen. And we won’t know the truth until well after the election.