Skip to comments.Iowa: Romney 45.2 O 44.4 (U of Iowa poll)
Posted on 11/01/2012 5:55:38 AM PDT by NoobRep
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
(Excerpt) Read more at news-releases.uiowa.edu ...
There will be a lot of unused home gyms in San Francisco this morning.
Not bad...not bad.Even if the undecideds only break 50-50 it looks good for Romney.
Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?
It looks like he is going to need at least one of these to get to 270.
I’ll take any tie heading into election day. The undecideds will deliver it to Romney.
He needs all of them to get to the 358 I predicted.
Romney has a better than even chance of winning but he won't get anything *near* 358.Whoever wins will win by a thread,EV-wise.
If you look at the details on this one I believe it was conducted by a class of students so not really a professional poll. But the professor that oversaw it comments on Romney momentum even if it isn’t obvious in the top line numbers.
No, he will likely get over 300EV’s.
I'm not the OP, but I'll chime in: I believe Romney wins New Hampshire, wins Iowa in a squeaker, and loses Nevada.
“Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?”
From my reading of copious polls and listening to trustworthy sources like Rasmussen I would rank the likelihood of a win for Romney (greatest to least) as New Hampshire, Iowa, then Nevada. Others may disagree. If I had a gun to my head I’d wager only NH and IA go to Romney. If he takes FL, OH, NC and VA then that’s all he needs.
I think Romney will win bigger than Bush over Kerry but smaller than either of the Reagan wins.
You will be surprised how much the polling models fail to account for this year which will put a number of places in play.
PA and MI could easily tip our way.
Romney won, without Ohio. I don't remember the final EV count though.
The Senate was 50/50. So with Ryan, it's 51/50.
The House majority grew by 18 seats. I remember the number 18 very specifically for the House.
And I watched “Wheeler Dealers” before I went to bed; nothing with politics (of course a certain site wasn't working anyways, but I won't get into that...).
A lot of undecideds. From previous voting, 50% of those undecideds would be Democrats. That isn’t good for Obama.
The undecided split nationally is overwhelmingly expected to break for Romney.
My micro Iowa poll shows a squeaker for Obama. Both my parents vote Romney. My sister and her husband are for Obama. My brother is undecided but leaning towards Obama. I’m in California, unfortunately so my Romney vote is wasted.
How do I know that? By seeing the anecdotal evidence on the ground. Nationwide, where there were massive amounts of Obama posters, bumperstickers, and signs in 2008, now there's either Romney signs or NOTHING. By the energized campaign rallies for Romney and Ryan.
The Bradley-Wilder Effect wasn't around in 2008, because Obama had convinced everybody that he was a moderate-liberal who was willing to listen to everybody's ideas, including Conservative ones, if the result was a better America.
Instead, he spent four years as his True Regressive Marxist self, smack-talking and punking around like the little girl-dog he is, partying while Hairy Reid and Nancy Pelosi worked to turn our country into a 3rd world $hithole.
The Bradley Effect will be there in spades come next Tuesday. Not only is Romney ahead in even the most leftist polls, but when you unskew the polls he'll have a massive 10-25% blowout, with States going his way nobody expects.
If Barry is only polling in at 44% this late in the game...them ROm,ney is going to win there 55% to 44% or something like that. Good...we need to steam roll this anti-American.
This is a Romney win prediction with him slightly leading and so many undecideds. Worst situation with undecideds should be Romney getting 3 of every 5 undecided.
ALL of the University-based polls are conducted by students with faculty supervision:
Quinnipiac, Marist, Franklin & Marshall
They get cheap labor from the students who are instructed by their liberal professors.
Is there any way that liberal bias might be introduced by polls using this process?
We’re also in the last “real” news day of the campaigns. Remember that most Friday afternoon and beyond till Monday news releases are designed to go down the weekend memory hole. Any bad news for their man will be released then. Monday is the true October surprise day as we’ll mostly see agenda driven stories ( more than now ) and complete BS that the MSM knows there isn’t time for the opponent of their chosen one to refute.
Yes, makes no sense.
RedTube down again ?
2. If Romney fails to take Ohio he needs one of those three and Wisconsin.
3. Romney is very likely to take New Hampshire and likely to take Iowa especially in view of these data from this poll.
4. Romney is very likely to win Ohio.
5. Romney is very likely to win Wisconsin.
6. Romney is very likely to win Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa yielding 295 electoral votes.
7. Romney has a reasonable chance of winning Pennsylvania or Michigan.
8. If Romney wins New Hampshire he turns the tables dramatically on Obama because Obama now must now run the table winning: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and one of Iowa or Nevada.
9. Obama must win all of these states with a ceiling of 47%, in the teeth of Romney's momentum, with undecideds who are breaking two out of three for Romney, with Barone predicting the affluent suburbs going to Romney, with the voter intensive older generations breaking overwhelmingly for Romney, with early voting breaking for Romney by five points according to Gallup, with the women's gap closed, and with palpable intensity on the side of Romney whose position would you rather be in?
YouTube? I hardly go on there except for movie quotes.
You are spot on.
Serious question for you.
Are these “concern trolls” really just trolls or are they weak kneed GOPers that get discouraged easily by the LSM?
Maybe a combination of both?
FWIW, I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will win NH and ME-02, along with WI.
“...I had a dream last night...”
For some reason, Nick Cage’s dream sequence from “Raising Arizona” came to mind... I have NO idea why...
I’ve never seen that movie.
One correction...Gallup has Romney up by 7%! In survey of those who already have voted!!! sample size 3,300 +
Obama, the traitor...is going to Pennsylvania...Romney to Wisconsin...they are fighting on democrat land!!! Not to mention strength for Romney with Independents...
The national polls are still weighting plus democrats in a year when all signs are that it will be a plus Republican year. Additionally, I believe there will be a substantial (statistically) crossover voting by democrats for Romney.
I am confident on the one hand, but very fearful on the other...if Obama wins...I fear for our nation...
Anyway, if the House gain is as large as 18 that it's hard see Romney not winning Ohio, and us getting at least 52-53 in the Senate.
I had a dream once where I congratulated John Kerry for winning the democratic nomination. He was a smug prick and didn't really acknowledge me.
Hmm was that a dream or did I actually meet John Kerry?
“Raising Arizona” is a very funny movie, and one of my favorites.
Check it out when you get a chance. Ex-con (Nick Cage) marries a police officer (Holly Hunter), and they’re trying to start a family and a new life. She discovers “I’m BARREN!!” and sends him out to kidnap a baby from a family that just had SIX, due to fertility pills.
The baby’s parents are wealthy, and they hire a bounty hunter (Randy Tex Cobb) to track down the kidnappers.
It’s worth the watch, you’ll laugh.