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Iowa: Romney 45.2 O 44.4 (U of Iowa poll)
Hawkeye Poll ^ | 10/31/12

Posted on 11/01/2012 5:55:38 AM PDT by NoobRep

University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll

(Excerpt) Read more at news-releases.uiowa.edu ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; iowa; obama; romney
University of Iowa poll. Kind of a small sample with quite a few undecideds.
1 posted on 11/01/2012 5:55:45 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: NoobRep

There will be a lot of unused home gyms in San Francisco this morning.


2 posted on 11/01/2012 5:57:32 AM PDT by oblomov
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To: NoobRep

Not bad...not bad.Even if the undecideds only break 50-50 it looks good for Romney.


3 posted on 11/01/2012 5:58:19 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: NoobRep

Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?

It looks like he is going to need at least one of these to get to 270.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 5:59:46 AM PDT by Rumierules
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To: NoobRep

I’ll take any tie heading into election day. The undecideds will deliver it to Romney.


5 posted on 11/01/2012 6:01:41 AM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Audentis Fortuna Iuvat)
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To: Rumierules
It looks like he is going to need at least one of these to get to 270.

He needs all of them to get to the 358 I predicted.

6 posted on 11/01/2012 6:02:13 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Homer_J_Simpson
He needs all of them to get to the 358 I predicted.

Romney has a better than even chance of winning but he won't get anything *near* 358.Whoever wins will win by a thread,EV-wise.

7 posted on 11/01/2012 6:05:08 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: NoobRep

If you look at the details on this one I believe it was conducted by a class of students so not really a professional poll. But the professor that oversaw it comments on Romney momentum even if it isn’t obvious in the top line numbers.


8 posted on 11/01/2012 6:07:58 AM PDT by paul544
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To: Gay State Conservative

No, he will likely get over 300EV’s.


9 posted on 11/01/2012 6:09:42 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Rumierules
Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?

I'm not the OP, but I'll chime in: I believe Romney wins New Hampshire, wins Iowa in a squeaker, and loses Nevada.

10 posted on 11/01/2012 6:12:40 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: Rumierules

“Does Romney have a better chance of winning Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire? How would you rank those?”

From my reading of copious polls and listening to trustworthy sources like Rasmussen I would rank the likelihood of a win for Romney (greatest to least) as New Hampshire, Iowa, then Nevada. Others may disagree. If I had a gun to my head I’d wager only NH and IA go to Romney. If he takes FL, OH, NC and VA then that’s all he needs.


11 posted on 11/01/2012 6:14:57 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Gay State Conservative

I think Romney will win bigger than Bush over Kerry but smaller than either of the Reagan wins.
You will be surprised how much the polling models fail to account for this year which will put a number of places in play.
PA and MI could easily tip our way.


12 posted on 11/01/2012 6:15:35 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: Gay State Conservative; Impy; DarthVader; fieldmarshaldj; sickoflibs; Clintonfatigued; NFHale; ...
I had a dream last night in which:

Romney won, without Ohio. I don't remember the final EV count though.

The Senate was 50/50. So with Ryan, it's 51/50.

The House majority grew by 18 seats. I remember the number 18 very specifically for the House.

And I watched “Wheeler Dealers” before I went to bed; nothing with politics (of course a certain site wasn't working anyways, but I won't get into that...).

13 posted on 11/01/2012 6:18:08 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: NoobRep

A lot of undecideds. From previous voting, 50% of those undecideds would be Democrats. That isn’t good for Obama.

The undecided split nationally is overwhelmingly expected to break for Romney.


14 posted on 11/01/2012 6:19:46 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: NoobRep

My micro Iowa poll shows a squeaker for Obama. Both my parents vote Romney. My sister and her husband are for Obama. My brother is undecided but leaning towards Obama. I’m in California, unfortunately so my Romney vote is wasted.


15 posted on 11/01/2012 6:23:34 AM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: NoobRep
It's gonna be a bloodbath for the Democrats on Election Day. ALL the polls are weighted +5 D or better, when it'll be a +5 for the GOP nationwide (like the 2010 Congressional elections). Not only that, but 80-90% of the Independents will break for Romney. Not only that, but I think Romney gets 30-35% of the Democrat vote.

How do I know that? By seeing the anecdotal evidence on the ground. Nationwide, where there were massive amounts of Obama posters, bumperstickers, and signs in 2008, now there's either Romney signs or NOTHING. By the energized campaign rallies for Romney and Ryan.

The Bradley-Wilder Effect wasn't around in 2008, because Obama had convinced everybody that he was a moderate-liberal who was willing to listen to everybody's ideas, including Conservative ones, if the result was a better America.

Instead, he spent four years as his True Regressive Marxist self, smack-talking and punking around like the little girl-dog he is, partying while Hairy Reid and Nancy Pelosi worked to turn our country into a 3rd world $hithole.

The Bradley Effect will be there in spades come next Tuesday. Not only is Romney ahead in even the most leftist polls, but when you unskew the polls he'll have a massive 10-25% blowout, with States going his way nobody expects.

16 posted on 11/01/2012 6:23:51 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: Clump
Concern Trolls new meme the last 2 weeks when it was apparent Obama was going to lose..”Anyone who says it's going to be a blowout is wrong, it will be razor thin.” No other reasoning besides they say its going to be so, even after most of the poll data in the MSM has been dissected, dismembered and discarded as wishcasting and deceptive propaganda. Early voting has show R enthusiasm off the charts, 2010 level and Obama will not be close to 2008 level. Romney is killing it out there in the stump and early voting. We have anecdotal and empirical data to support this....But it's going to be close because Brian Williams and Nate Silver says its going to be close. Oh by the way , I wish I had the link, Nate Silver was over blah, blah percent sure the Cincinnati Reds would win the world series. Some you quaking at his predictions eat that, and this guy prided himself on his knowledge of baseball stats and prognostication.
17 posted on 11/01/2012 6:25:35 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: Clump
Concern Trolls new meme the last 2 weeks when it was apparent Obama was going to lose..”Anyone who says it's going to be a blowout is wrong, it will be razor thin.” No other reasoning besides they say its going to be so, even after most of the poll data in the MSM has been dissected, dismembered and discarded as wishcasting and deceptive propaganda. Early voting has show R enthusiasm off the charts, 2010 level and Obama will not be close to 2008 level. Romney is killing it out there in the stump and early voting. We have anecdotal and empirical data to support this....But it's going to be close because Brian Williams and Nate Silver says its going to be close. Oh by the way , I wish I had the link, Nate Silver was over blah, blah percent sure the Cincinnati Reds would win the world series. Some you quaking at his predictions eat that, and this guy prided himself on his knowledge of baseball stats and prognostication.
18 posted on 11/01/2012 6:26:02 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: NoobRep

If Barry is only polling in at 44% this late in the game...them ROm,ney is going to win there 55% to 44% or something like that. Good...we need to steam roll this anti-American.


19 posted on 11/01/2012 6:26:48 AM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Huskrrrr
I would so LOVE for Romney to take IA for many reasons, not the least of which is my IA-residents sister and brother-in-law have been campaigning for 0bama, in both 2008 and now. What I cannot understand is that, their son is going into USAF in May, after ROTC, approved for pilot training and an 8-year commitment. Especially after seeing this Benghazi debacle, how could anyone support 0bama, while their son is headed to the military?
20 posted on 11/01/2012 6:29:17 AM PDT by NEMDF
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To: NoobRep

This is a Romney win prediction with him slightly leading and so many undecideds. Worst situation with undecideds should be Romney getting 3 of every 5 undecided.


21 posted on 11/01/2012 6:30:40 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: paul544

ALL of the University-based polls are conducted by students with faculty supervision:

Quinnipiac, Marist, Franklin & Marshall

They get cheap labor from the students who are instructed by their liberal professors.

Is there any way that liberal bias might be introduced by polls using this process?

You Betcha!


22 posted on 11/01/2012 6:35:16 AM PDT by GEC (We're not drilling in ANWR because....)
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To: NoobRep

We’re also in the last “real” news day of the campaigns. Remember that most Friday afternoon and beyond till Monday news releases are designed to go down the weekend memory hole. Any bad news for their man will be released then. Monday is the true October surprise day as we’ll mostly see agenda driven stories ( more than now ) and complete BS that the MSM knows there isn’t time for the opponent of their chosen one to refute.


23 posted on 11/01/2012 6:36:47 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: NEMDF

Yes, makes no sense.


24 posted on 11/01/2012 6:38:16 AM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: GOPsterinMA

RedTube down again ?


25 posted on 11/01/2012 6:51:15 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: Rumierules; Wpin
1. If Romney wins Ohio he does not need New Hampshire, Iowa, or Nevada.

2. If Romney fails to take Ohio he needs one of those three and Wisconsin.

3. Romney is very likely to take New Hampshire and likely to take Iowa especially in view of these data from this poll.

4. Romney is very likely to win Ohio.

5. Romney is very likely to win Wisconsin.

6. Romney is very likely to win Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa yielding 295 electoral votes.

7. Romney has a reasonable chance of winning Pennsylvania or Michigan.

8. If Romney wins New Hampshire he turns the tables dramatically on Obama because Obama now must now run the table winning: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and one of Iowa or Nevada.

9. Obama must win all of these states with a ceiling of 47%, in the teeth of Romney's momentum, with undecideds who are breaking two out of three for Romney, with Barone predicting the affluent suburbs going to Romney, with the voter intensive older generations breaking overwhelmingly for Romney, with early voting breaking for Romney by five points according to Gallup, with the women's gap closed, and with palpable intensity on the side of Romney – whose position would you rather be in?


26 posted on 11/01/2012 6:54:07 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

YouTube? I hardly go on there except for movie quotes.

Think “here”.


27 posted on 11/01/2012 7:11:07 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: pburgh01

You are spot on.
Serious question for you.
Are these “concern trolls” really just trolls or are they weak kneed GOPers that get discouraged easily by the LSM?
Maybe a combination of both?


28 posted on 11/01/2012 7:12:57 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: nathanbedford

Excellent analysis!!!

FWIW, I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will win NH and ME-02, along with WI.


29 posted on 11/01/2012 7:15:28 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: GOPsterinMA; Gay State Conservative; Impy; DarthVader; fieldmarshaldj; sickoflibs; ...

“...I had a dream last night...”

For some reason, Nick Cage’s dream sequence from “Raising Arizona” came to mind... I have NO idea why...


30 posted on 11/01/2012 8:55:23 AM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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To: NFHale; All

I’ve never seen that movie.


31 posted on 11/01/2012 9:05:37 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: nathanbedford

One correction...Gallup has Romney up by 7%! In survey of those who already have voted!!! sample size 3,300 +

Obama, the traitor...is going to Pennsylvania...Romney to Wisconsin...they are fighting on democrat land!!! Not to mention strength for Romney with Independents...

The national polls are still weighting plus democrats in a year when all signs are that it will be a plus Republican year. Additionally, I believe there will be a substantial (statistically) crossover voting by democrats for Romney.

I am confident on the one hand, but very fearful on the other...if Obama wins...I fear for our nation...


32 posted on 11/01/2012 2:11:25 PM PDT by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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To: GOPsterinMA; fieldmarshaldj
No, he didn't say you tube.......

Anyway, if the House gain is as large as 18 that it's hard see Romney not winning Ohio, and us getting at least 52-53 in the Senate.

I had a dream once where I congratulated John Kerry for winning the democratic nomination. He was a smug prick and didn't really acknowledge me.

Hmm was that a dream or did I actually meet John Kerry?

33 posted on 11/02/2012 4:35:51 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: GOPsterinMA

“Raising Arizona” is a very funny movie, and one of my favorites.

Check it out when you get a chance. Ex-con (Nick Cage) marries a police officer (Holly Hunter), and they’re trying to start a family and a new life. She discovers “I’m BARREN!!” and sends him out to kidnap a baby from a family that just had SIX, due to fertility pills.

The baby’s parents are wealthy, and they hire a bounty hunter (Randy Tex Cobb) to track down the kidnappers.

It’s worth the watch, you’ll laugh.


34 posted on 11/03/2012 7:42:47 AM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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